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Geopolitics

EU Recovery Plan, A Turning Point Or Same Old Deal?

Which way?
Which way?

Today, the European Commission will unveil plans for an unprecedented EU economy recovery package in the face of the coronavirus crisis. The proposed EU rescue fund comes on the heels of last week's surprise announcement that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had agreed to a 500-billion-euro recovery package set out to help the worst affected countries, locking European member countries together on the fiscal plane for the first time in history. Still, the plan will have to unite all 28 member states, which is far from certain.

Southern European countries, such as badly-hit Italy and Spain, are on board with Macron and Merkel. Yet opposition is brewing from many sides. First, the most visible holdouts are the "Frugal Four" — Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden — who have come up with a counterproposal, pushing for loans instead of grants, and requiring strict controls over spending and time limits on repayment.

But resistance is also coming from Central and Eastern Europe, where countries are generally less affected by the coronavirus crisis than elsewhere, and could even become net contributors to the fund. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš quipped that the Franco-German approach would effectively "penalize countries for successfully handling the pandemic."

While some have called the recovery plan a defining moment in EU integration, others say its importance is hugely exaggerated, both by its critics and supporters. Columnist Annika Ström Melin argues in the Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter that although the new recovery fund might change the character of the Union, it still falls far short of transforming the EU into a federation of nations. Given that the fund is not so large in relation to national budgets, and the loans would not be distributed as candy but allocated towards investments focusing on green business and digital transformation, "it is more reasonable to regard the new fund as yet another stone in the pragmatic, ever-changing and problem-solving structure that is the EU."

Pragmatism or revolution? With the world turned upside-down by COVID-19, it's a question that goes far beyond European Union politics.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

With His Trip To Moscow, Xi Has Sent A Clear Message To The World

China has adopted a stance of pro-Putin neutrality since the start of Russia's invasion. But this is not an alliance of equals. China has the upper-hand and sees the opportunity to present itself as an alternative world leader.

Photo of ​Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping in Moscow during the Chinese leader's state visit to Russia.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping in Moscow during the Chinese leader's state visit to Russia.

Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — While Russia is mired in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin has become the target of an international arrest warrant, China appeared as a lifeline.

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Xi Jinping’s presence in Moscow from Monday to Wednesday was a bit like the "quiet force" visiting a friend in trouble. They offer him "face," as the Chinese expression for showing respect goes, referring to him as "dear friend"...

But reality sets in very quickly: between the couple, Beijing has the upper hand — and Moscow has no choice.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, China has observed what one diplomat astutely calls a "pro-Putin neutrality", a subtle balance that suits Beijing more than Moscow. Putin could have hoped for more active support, especially in the delivery of arms, technological products, or ways to circumvent Western sanctions. But China is helping Russia sparingly, while making sure to not incur sanctions in turn.

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