-Analysis-
PARIS — The moment of truth is fast approaching for Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro. Everything is poised for a confrontation where Washington is clearly aiming for regime change in Venezuela.
The latest military incident involved the U.S. Navy seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker off the country’s coast. Trump stated Thursday that the crew was being interrogated; and as for the oil cargo, “well, I think we’re going to keep it,” said the U.S. president. Caracas has condemned what it calls an act of piracy.
At the same time, Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who fled the country amid dramatic circumstances with support from Washington, appeared Thursday in Oslo. It was too late for her to collect the Nobel Peace Prize, which was presented to her daughter the day before, but she spoke out in support of Trump’s strategy of putting pressure on Maduro’s regime.
Monroe revisited
The U.S. has not assembled the military force necessary for a ground invasion like the one that overthrew Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003. However, it does have considerable naval and air forces in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific, enough to impose a blockade and strike strategic targets in the country. For now, military actions have taken place outside the country, against ships accused of transporting drugs, resulting in nearly 100 deaths; and now this seized oil tanker, which threatens the country’s exports.
This is consistent with Trump’s military doctrine, which doesn’t want to start a neverending war, but isn’t afraid to use force. This doctrine baffles some of his supporters, who thought he would avoid starting new wars. A rebellion is looming in Washington, even if it is mostly Democrats who are speaking out against Trump, who they say is “sleepwalking us into a war with Venezuela.”
There is no legal basis for these actions, regardless of how much the Maduro regime is disliked. But Trump has no regard for international law, which, in his view, should not hinder the United States’ freedom to act.
A new imperialism
In the National Defense Strategy published last week, there was much talk about the section on Europe. But Latin America is discovering the “Trump corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine: a revival of the policy set out more than two centuries ago by President James Monroe, which asserted U.S. leadership over the Western Hemisphere.
In 2025, this means the right to take action throughout North and South America against drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and foreign interference, particularly from China, in the Panama Canal, for example.
“Reinvigorated by my Trump Corollary, the Monroe Doctrine is alive and well — and American leadership is coming roaring back stronger than ever before,” declares Donald Trump. Venezuela is the first test of his imperial policy.