-Analysis-
PARIS — The past year began with our continued disbelief in the face of a war in Ukraine that had begun 10 months earlier. Now 2023 ends with two wars: in Ukraine which is not letting up, as we have seen with the 35 drones launched by Russia on Ukrainian territory on Wednesday night; and in Gaza, sending us daily images of a massive tragedy.
In both cases, these conflicts are the hallmark of a world where law, albeit imperfect, has given way to force. These two wars are different in cause and actors, but both symbolize a world that no longer runs smoothly, where arbiters or common law are not part of the equation.
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Just look at what is happening in the United Nations. A member of the Security Council — the guardian of the UN Charter — is invading its sovereign neighbor, while another permanent member is blocking any collective expression in favor of a ceasefire to stop widespread civilian deaths.
They are of course Russia and the United States, which are also both to blame for overlooking global governance.
Western contradiction
The UN General Assembly is instead the only forum where every nation has a say, and the votes there are revealing. On Ukraine, few countries supported Russia last year, but part of the so-called Global South chose to abstain or not to vote. At the time, this reservation was interpreted as a denunciation of the “double standards” practiced by the West.
Israel’s war in Gaza, following the slaughter committed by Hamas on October 7, has detected this Western contradiction. Not only have the resolutions passed decades ago on a solution to the Palestinian problem not been respected, but Washington continues to protect Israel despite its reservations about the Jewish state’s methods.
It’s hard to be optimistic in either conflict.
This week, a vote at the General Assembly spoke volumes: it concerned the Palestinians’ right to self-determination. Four countries voted against: Israel, the United States, and the islands of Nauru and Micronesia. One hundred and seventy-two (172) countries voted in favor. It was a vote without appeal, and yet it won’t change a thing.
Searching for sign of optimism
It’s hard to be optimistic in either conflict. The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate following the failure of Kyiv’s counter-offensive this summer, and the difficulties of the United States and Europe in securing aid funding. Vladimir Putin is playing for time in the hope that Donald Trump will be elected next year, or that the West will grow tired.
In Gaza, the Israeli response over the last two and a half months has resulted in civilian casualties that even the Americans criticize. Yet they still oppose a ceasefire. This phase of intensive bombardment will likely come to an end in the next few weeks, although the “aftermath” is unclear; especially with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the helm of Israel strictly opposing a two-state political solution.
Beyond these two conflicts, it’s the question of governance that is at stake, because there are few who care about the other wars in Sudan, eastern Congo or Burma. Where will the international signal for a return to law and simple humanity come from? Sadly, right now, we don’t see it coming.
