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Argentina

Warming Up For A New, Post-Kirchner Era In Argentina

Daniel Scioli, candidate closest to the outgoing Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, is leading the polls. But whoever wins, the future of the country is a wide-open question.

Presidential candidates on pizzas in Buenos Aires
Presidential candidates on pizzas in Buenos Aires
Danilo Arbilla

-Analysis-

BUENOS AIRES — In contrast with her fellow Latin American friends and allies — presidents Rafael Correa of Ecuador, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Bolivia"s Evo Morales, Nicaragua"s Daniel Ortega — Cristina Fernández de Kirchner cannot immediately run for another presidential term. And without the "less-than-democratic" mechanisms those leaders use to hold onto power, there is no assurance her preferred candidate will win the upcoming election in Argentina to succeed her.

As it happens, the ruling party's candidate, Daniel Scioli, is nonetheless leading the polls, even if he was only reluctantly accepted as the candidate of the Victory Front — a coalition backing the Peronists or Justicialists, who include Kirchner's most radical supporters and close family members with their own political ambitions. Peronism is a political movement that aims to carry on the legacy of former Argentine leaders Juan Domingo and Eva Peron, mixing social justice and state paternalism.

What is not known is whether Scioli will win outright in the first round (needing 45% of votes or just over 40% but being 10 points ahead of the runner-up) or if he will have to contend in a second round.

He already reportedly has the support of Pope Francis, whose "Peronist" tendencies are practically a certainty and who has made no secret of his personal inclination in favor of Kirchner. As the Argentine historian Juan José Sebreli observed in Spain's El País, "the Pope is now backing Scioli." The historian qualified the candidate as an "obedient man" whom the Kirchner coterie had "turned into a rag." Would that be to clean up after them?

A second-round victory over Scioli by the center-right candidate Mauricio Macri, who is currently second in the pre-election polls, seems a tall order. For he would not be able to count on the votes of supporters of another of the candidates, Sergio Massa, the "dissident" Peronist.

Cristina Kirchner and Daniel Scioli back in 2013 — Photo: Patricio Murphy/ZUMA

Massa, a disciple of former free-market President Carlos Menem in the 1990s, could do better in a second round, able to count on Macri's votes. His challenge is to qualify for the head-to-head, since he is currently third in the polls.

Meanwhile, amid the jockeying of candidates, ordinary Argentines are anxious about what will come after the elections, and economic indicators show serious uncertainty from the business community. As they say in the badlands of Río de la Plata, best to "unsaddle" until the dust settles ...

New economics?

The three main candidates have vowed not to devalue the peso — something the business sector and exporters in particular have been asking for. Wine producers insist it is the only way to inject some life into the economy. Some economists have observed that a devaluation would help balance the budget and reduce expenditures consisting in large part of excess subsidies and electoral "donations."

Devaluation would be the beginning of change: breaking with the past, starting to make Kirchner pay for her policies — and effectively destroying her legacy.

That would not be easy for Scioli, but not impossible either. He is in any case less likely to approach his presidency as a means to continue the Kirchner "regime," in spite of many efforts by her supporters to surround and contain him.

It is even less likely that Scioli will devote himself to "safekeeping" Cristina K"s presidential seat, so she could return in the 2019 elections, as some analysts suggest, and as her diehard supporters no doubt hope.

Scioli, maintaining his typical "casual" style, will act in line with his own interests, which would logically include his own reelection.

So if he does indeed win, he will not be attacking Cristina, but instead will try and quietly distance himself from her, govern well and avoid clashes with allies and opponents alike. In the end, he would govern according to his own criteria. No, it seems, his harshest critics are wrong: Daniel Scioli is nobody's rag.

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Society

How Argentina Is Changing Tactics To Combat Gender Violence

Argentina has tweaked its protocols for responding to sexual and domestic violence. It hopes to encourage victims to report crimes and reveal information vital to a prosecution.

A black and white image of a woman looking at a memorial wall in Argentina.

A woman looking at a memorial wall in Argentina.

CC search
Mara Resio

BUENOS AIRES - In the first three months of 2023, Argentina counted 116 killings of women, transvestites and trans-people, according to a local NGO, Observatorio MuMaLá. They reveal a pattern in these killings, repeated every year: most femicides happen at home, and 70% of victims were protected in principle by a restraining order on the aggressor.

✉️ You can receive our LGBTQ+ International roundup every week directly in your inbox. Subscribe here.

Now, legal action against gender violence, which must begin with a formal complaint to the police, has a crucial tool — the Protocol for the Investigation and Litigation of Cases of Sexual Violence (Protocolo de investigación y litigio de casos de violencia sexual). The protocol was recommended by the acting head of the state prosecution service, Eduardo Casal, and laid out by the agency's Specialized Prosecution Unit for Violence Against Women (UFEM).

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