-Analysis-
BUENOS AIRES — Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s decision to declare himself the winner of the July 28 presidential election with 51.2% of the vote, compared to 44.2% for the opposition, has not been recognized by the United States, European Union, some allies in Asia and several Latin American countries.
On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken went so far as to explicitly declare that opposition candidate Edmundo González was the winner of the election, saying there was “overwhelming evidence” that Maduro had been defeated.
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Surely, as happened with the interim government of Juan Guaidó that emerged in 2019 and was recognized by these same countries, the West will intensify its economic sanctions on Venezuela.
But it’s worth remembering that such sanctions have failed in Cuba for 65 years, just as they have failed in recent years in Iran and Russia. These countries, along with China, have recognized Maduro’s reelection claim, which will give Venezuela some ability to resist any sanctions.
Guaidó’s interim government enjoyed the support of most Venezuelans — just as today’s opposition alliance led by María Corina Machado does.
Ahead of the vote, Maduro warned of a “bloodbath” if the election results were not recognized (in his favor). And on election day, he said he had a secret weapon: “the militias”, or the regime’s paramilitary organizations that are ready and willing to engage in street violence. There is no doubt that he is willing to use thel.
Economic sovereignty
As with Guaidó, the role of the armed forces was the most important key to his failure; only a few dozen troops followed him. After the failed 2002 coup against then President Hugo Chávez, the regime turned to Cuba’s Fidel Castro to acquire the the means and methods to ensure the armed forces’ loyalty, reorganize its security apparatus and assure itself of a sharp service that was initially run by the Cubans themselves.
They replaced the armed forces’ slogan of Patria o muerte (Homeland or Death) with Socialismo o muerte (Socialism or Death).
The first mechanism created to snuff out the slightest sign of an army mutiny was the now-powerful Military Counter-Intelligence Directorate. Any soldier not with the regime can expect a taste of jail and torture, not to mention a whole lot of problems for their relatives.
The second initiative was to replace the armed forces’ slogan of Patria o muerte (Homeland or Death) with Socialismo o muerte (Socialism or Death). As in Cuba, this makes the armed forces beholden to the party or regime, not the state or country.
History was also reinterpreted to give Venezuela two founding fathers: the 19th century revolutionary Simón Bolívar, often termed the continent’s Liberator against imperial Spain, and Chávez, who died in 2012. The first led the country toward political independence, while the second forged its economic sovereignty.
Chavista regime
This indoctrination has been systematically inflicted on the military over the past 22 years, since the last coup attempt. Dissident soldiers do not rebel, they desert and become just leave the country, like millions of other Venezuelans.
The opposition claims that more than half the country’s political prisoners are young soldiers. That may be exaggerated, but is indicative nonetheless of the Military Counter-Intelligence’s thoroughness.
As for senior officers, they can expect to receive little portions of the state’s wealth and are unlikely to jeopardize their perks and benefits by standing up to the regime. If the ongoing protests turn violent, as has happened in the past, the government would use its militias, then the police and security apparatus, and finally the armed forces.
The Chavista regime has been in power for 25 year, and Maduro will not readily step down as long as he has army support. And it does not look like he is about to lose it.
