Geopolitics

Turkey: Why The World Should Start To Worry About Erdogan

Op-Ed: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is growing more strident in his rhetoric across the Muslim world, even as he cynically pursues Turkey’s self interest.

Turkey: Why The World Should Start To Worry About Erdogan
Richard Herzinger

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's verbal antics are nothing new to European leaders. Radical rhetoric is one thing, they say, but at the end of the day, the pragmatic good sense that has characterized Turkish foreign policy for so long will prevail.

The problem is that Erdogan's tone is growing ever more shrill, and it looks increasingly as if he might translate words into action.

He has sent a Turkish ship to prospect for natural gas and oil deposits along the coast of Cyprus and threatened Turkish military supervision of the activity: non-stop patrols by "frigates, gunboats and the air force" warned Erdogan. This offers more than hint that the Turkish premier intends to back up his high-flying claims to dominance not only in the Middle East but also in Europe.

Erdogan appears increasingly to be leaving a sensible sort of Realpolitik behind in favor of a self-aggrandizing messianic stance. Since his recent trip to Egypt and Libya, where he was celebrated as a kind of healing force, he has mixed a pro-Islamic democracy message with an ever stronger anti-Israel position.

One result is that Erdogan's sense of international law appears to have morphed into his own definition of what that law is. Turkey claims to have a rightful share in Cyprus's natural gas and oil deposits based in the supposed right of a state – the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus – that is only recognized by Ankara.

His approach on the Gaza Flotilla conflict with Israel offers a similar militant will to disparage international law if it shouldn't happen to coincide with his way of reading events.

When trying to get through Israel's Gaza blockade in the Spring of 2010, nine activists were killed by the Israelis on the Turkish aid ship Mavi Marmara.

Erdogan keeps insisting that Israel must present formal excuses to Turkey and put an immediate end to the Gaza blockade which he says violates international law. The Turkish Prime Minister has even gone so far as to say that Israel's behavior constitutes grounds for war.

Double standard

But not only does Erdogan sneeringly push aside international laws if they don't suit him, he posits himself as guardian of a kind of higher morality among states.

However, even as he denounces Israel's behavior towards the Palestinians in ever more strident tones, he apparently sees nothing objectionable in the fact that for years Turkey has launched attacks against PKK extremists in Kurdish northern Iraq.

And Erdogan recently announced a joint offensive of Turkish and Iranian forces against Kurdish rebels deep inside Iraq. When asked about possible casualties from this operation, he replied coldly: "I'm sorry to say this, but there will be a price to pay."

Erdogan assumes a moral tone even as he preaches a double standard with regard not only to international law, but to human beings. He went so far as to state that Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir could not be responsible for genocide since Muslims, quite simply, did not do that sort of thing. And his government continues to question the Armenian genocide at the end of World War I at the hands of his own people.

Erdogan has been increasingly critical of the bloody repression of Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad, who used to be a close ally. Still, he hasn't quite been able to bring himself to call for Assad to step down.

Meanwhile, he goes deeper and deeper in demonizing Israel. In a recent interview with CNN, Erdogan even questioned just how accurate figures were with regard to Israelis who had lost their lives as a result of Palestinian terror attacks. According to Erdogan it was, however, beyond question that Israel had murdered "hundreds of thousands' of Palestinians. With regard to the Holocaust, Erdogan appears to share views similar to those of Iranian president Ahmadinedjad – that Israel uses the Holocaust as an "excuse" so as to be able assume the stance of victim.

Furthermore, according to Erdogan, "Germany alone" should pay for the atrocities against the Jews: neither the Turks nor the Muslims in the region had anything to do with "this problem."

This sort of attitude shows that Erdogan‘s hostility to Israel goes well beyond economic and political disgruntlement. It constitutes the ideological core of his endeavor to present himself to the Arab world as a charismatic spiritual guide and pan-Islamic leader.

And indeed: since Gamal Abdel Nasser, arguably no other political figure has found such broad resonance in the region as Erdogan.

Still his growing irrationality and regional stature should not cover up the fact that he pursues Turkey's interests with an unwavering eye. Even Erdogan's anger at Israel is connected to the fact that Cyprus and the Jewish state want to team up to drill for gas and oil in the Mediterranean. Turkey's confrontation course against Israel will become a European problem -- so Europe would be well-advised to listen exactly to what Erdogan has to say, and assume that he means it.

Read the original article in German

photo - Πρωθυπουργός της Ελλάδας

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At the Mango Festival held in Aswan, Egypt

Nada Arafat

ISMAILIA – Every year during the month of July, crowds gather in the mango farms of Ismailia, in northeastern Egypt, to pick the delectable summer fruit during its relatively short harvest season. But this year, as a result of erratic weather patterns throughout March and April, the usual bountiful mango harvest was severely affected with farmers witnessing a precipitous drop in yield. Some 300,000 farms saw an 80% decrease in productivity, leading to a supply shortage in the market and a corresponding 40% increase in the price of mangoes.


The effects of these climate fluctuations could have been mitigated by farmers, yet according to experts who spoke to Mada Masr, the agriculture minister failed to play a role in raising awareness among farmers and in providing agricultural guidance services.

Heatwaves kill crops

Mangoes are highly sensitive to changes in temperature. For germination to occur, the ideal temperature should be between 10 °C at night and 28 °C during the day, according to agricultural consultants. In Egypt, this weather pattern usually occurs in February. Mango trees then flower and the flowers turn into fruits that take 40 days to grow and be ready for harvest, according to Karam Suleiman, an agricultural engineer.

This year, however, according to mango farmers in Ismailia who spoke to Mada Masr, the beginning of the winter farming season experienced a sudden heatwave followed by another heatwave at the end of March. In both March and April, the temperature dipped to as low as 5 °C at night and as high as 25 °C during the day. Due to these erratic weather fluctuations, the mango flowers that develop into fruit fell before they could mature.

The typical average mango yield from one feddan (approx 1.03 acres or 0.40 hectares) ranges between 6 to 8 tons. This year however, the yield per feddan averaged between just 1 to 2 tons, according to several sources.

Frozen mango suppliers multiply purchases

A farm owner in Al-Tal al-Kebir on the Ismailia Desert Road, who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, said that his farm produced approximately 35 tons of mangoes last year, whereas this year his yield did not exceed 4 tons. He added that many farmers in the surrounding area, which is famous for mango cultivation, experienced the same steep declines in yield.

The limited mango yield and the subsequent hike in prices has also prompted frozen mango suppliers to multiply their purchases from farms in order to capitalize and sell them next year at an even higher price, according to Ali Saqr, an agricultural engineer in a fruit export company, along with a number of other farm owners who spoke to Mada Masr. Mangos can stay frozen for up to two years.

Khaled Eweis, who buys mangoes and stores them in rented freezers then later sells the frozen mangoes to juice and dessert shops, explained to Mada Masr that juice shops usually use the Zebdia variety of mangoes, whereas dessert shops use Keitt mangoes. The latter is expected to be priced at 25 Egyptian pounds ($1.5) this year after having been sold for half the price at the same time last year.

Last year, Eweis bought Zebdia mangoes for 10–12 Egyptian pounds ($0.6–$0.7) per kilo then resold them for 16 ($1) after freezing them. This year, the Zebdia prices ranged from 17–21 ($1–$1.30) per kilo, and Eweis expects that the price after freezing will reach as high as 25 ($1.5).

Photo of an Egyptian man shouldering a basket full of mangoes

The typical average mango yield from one feddan (approx 1.03 acres) ranges between 6 to 8 tons

Xinhua/ZUMA

Threat to water security

This is not the first time that mango production has been hit hard as a result of fluctuating weather patterns. A similar crisis in the mango harvest took place in 2018, and other crops, such as olives, potatoes, wheat, rice and cotton, have also been adversely affected over the last few years, according to Mohamed Fahem, the head of the government Climate Change Information Center. And human-induced changes to global weather patterns as a result of climate change point to increased agricultural challenges in the future.

The deadly heat waves, fires, hurricanes and other extreme weather events that have dominated headlines in recent years will only become more frequent in the coming decades, according to a United Nations report on climate change released in August. In its sixth assessment report, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change called human-induced changes to global climate systems "unprecedented." While the report calls for drastic cuts to the global emission of greenhouse gases, much of the effects of climate change are already locked in for decades to come.

Among the areas most vulnerable to climate change is agriculture. A 2018 report titled Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Changes in Egypt found that climate change can have drastic effects on agriculture through changes in temperature, rainfall, CO2 levels and solar radiation. Meanwhile, a 2020 European Union report also found that climate change will pose a threat to global food production in the medium to long-term through projected changes in daily temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity and global radiation.

According to various studies, climate change gradually reduces the duration of spring, autumn and winter, which in turn affects the crops that are cultivated during those seasons. In Egypt in particular, the country's agricultural crop map will likely change as a result of a prolonged summer season, according to a study by former Agriculture Minister Ayman Abou Hadid, published in 2010 when he was heading the Center for Agricultural Studies. The study predicted that grain cultivation will gradually move north from Upper Egypt due to increases in winter temperatures, though it did not give a projected timeframe.

Cold and heat waves

Climate change also increases salinity levels in soil due to rising sea levels, which in turn renders the soil only suitable for crops that can handle high salinity yet still require intensive irrigation to mitigate the salinity levels. At the same time, Egypt is currently facing a threat to its water security due to the changes in rain patterns and droughts as well as the potential effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

According to Fahim, the increased cold and heat waves Egypt has experienced has led to the emergence of new, mutated varieties of pests and fungal diseases that are resistant to chemicals. For example, in 2018, aphids and whiteflies spread due to the shortened winter season, and the accumulation of these pests led to huge losses in potato and cotton yields. Meanwhile, palm trees were harmed due to the appearance of red palm weevils.

How farmers counter mango losses

The severe losses in the 2021 mango yield were hard to avoid, but is there a way to counter them?

Karam Suleiman, an agricultural engineer, believes that better methods of agriculture, irrigation and fertilization, along with raising awareness among farmers about the dangers of climate change and how to monitor weather fluctuations could succeed in mitigating such outcomes.

However, Egypt appears currently incapable of providing sufficient safety networks to farmers in order to enable them to confront the effects of climate change.

An example of this is apparent in the failure to enforce mechanisms for warning farmers about potential difficulties in upcoming farming seasons. In June, a report by the Center for Agricultural Studies warned about a decline of as much as 85% in the productivity of farms in Ismailia, where mangoes are mainly cultivated, as well as farms in Sharqiya, Suez and Beheira, due to climate change. However, this report only reached about 13 farmers and owners of mango farms, according to agricultural sources who spoke to Mada Masr.

Ahmed Asal, a mango farmer in Qantara in Ismailia, told Mada Masr that there has been no guidance from authorities in helping farmers understand climate change and how to respond to it. "No one told us what to do and we never received any compensation for our losses," Asal said.

Photo of a hand picking a mango from the tree in Egypt

Mangoes are highly sensitive to changes in temperature

Ahmed Gomaa/Xinhua/ZUMA

Agriculture engineers must become climate engineers

Agricultural guidance is a service offered by the Agriculture Ministry to raise awareness and educate farmers about all aspects of farming. The service is usually provided through agricultural engineers who are based in the agricultural cooperatives that exist in every city and town.

Fahim, the head of the Climate Change Information Center, works to play a similar role through his Facebook page and, at times, on various TV channels and newspapers, by raising awareness about weather fluctuations and their effects on agriculture. However, his insights do not have a wide enough audience, particularly at a time when the agricultural guidance is dwindling despite the opening of the Agricultural Guidance Center in Qantara earlier this year under the auspices of the Agriculture Ministry.

"Agricultural guidance has been doing a good job lately, but only in the media, not on the ground," said Alaa Khairy,* an engineer at the Central Laboratory for Climate Change. "If they were really working on the ground, farmers would not have lost as much as they did."

More important crops like wheat will be next

What exacerbates the crisis is that those who are harmed the most are small farmers — those who have between 10 to 20 feddans of land — who cannot afford to take preemptive precautionary measures to mitigate erratic weather patterns nor hire experts who can help them make better decisions about how to handle sudden climate fluctuations. Those farmers also cannot afford to provide covers for their fruits during hot seasons, which is one way to prevent crop damage that is quite costly.

This year's crisis is expected to be repeated in the coming years due to the rapid consequences and effects of climate change on global food security. Aside from mangoes, the effects of climate change are projected to affect far more important crops, such as wheat, with reports showing global wheat crop losses due to heat and drought, a particularly worrisome development for Egypt — the largest importer of wheat in the world.

"In the coming period, agricultural engineers must become climate engineers as well," Suleiman said.

*Pseudonym

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