-Analysis-
PARIS – “He’s a great guy,” Donald Trump says of him. The U.S. president’s favorite foreign leader — the first he called after his inauguration and the first he plans to visit as soon as possible — has all the qualities Trump admires: wealth, ambition and a flair for launching extravagant projects. He is Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince.
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During their phone conversation, the leader of the Wahhabi kingdom pledged to invest $600 billion in the United States over Trump’s four-year term. In a video appearance at the Davos Forum on Thursday, Trump raised the stakes: “But I’ll be asking the Crown Prince… to round it out to around $1 trillion,” he said, without joking.
Trump’s relationship with 39-year-old “MBS” dates back to his first term; it was then mediated by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, for both diplomacy and business. Saudi Arabia is set to play an even more central role in Trump’s second term, as the kingdom has only grown in significance in a Middle East, in the throes of a major reshaping.
Three dimensions
This relationship has three dimensions. The first, as we’ve seen, is to attract a portion of the colossal financial resources held by the kingdom, the world’s largest oil producer, to the United States.
The second is to encourage Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump during his first term, which established relations between several Arab countries and Israel. The kingdom was still negotiating when the Oct. 7 massacre and the war in Gaza occurred, halting progress. The crown prince is now compelled to condition any agreement on an Israeli commitment to the Palestinians, as his domestic public opinion would not accept otherwise.
Trump stated that he is asking the Saudis to lower oil prices.
Trump will attempt to reconcile the demands of his two regional partners to solidify a Saudi-Israeli security alliance in the Middle East. This is his grand ambition, with the expectation of positive benefits for the United States.
The third dimension is oil prices. On Thursday, at the Davos Forum, Trump stated that he is asking the Saudis to lower oil prices to combat inflation and allow for a reduction in interest rates.
A complex context
But it’s not that simple. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, President Joe Biden had asked Prince Mohammed to lower oil prices to penalize the Russian exports funding President Vladimir Putin’s war. The prince refused, a snub to Biden. Saudi Arabia is tied to Russia through agreements between oil-producing countries, and it had refused to break these agreements.
How will Prince Mohammed respond to the request — coming this time from Trump?
This will be the first test of the bulldozer style adopted by the U.S. president.
In fact, there will be large-scale negotiations between the role Saudi Arabia can play in the post-war situation in Gaza, the establishment of relations with Israel, the security guarantees the prince expects from America, and, in the background, the unresolved issue of Iran.
It’s complex. But in the end, there’s a trillion deal on the table, and that’s something Trump can’t resist.
