CAIRO — The intensification of battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in five different regions reflects the stalemate that characterizes the war that has been going on for more than a year.
As neither the Sudanese army (led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan) nor the RSF (led by Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti) has been able to achieve a decisive victory, they have resorted to attrition warfare. Both sides hope to achieve relative superiority on the battlefield that could serve them politically if they returned to the negotiating table to settle the conflict.
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Sudan is now divided between the two sides: the Sudanese army controls the eastern and northern regions of the country, while the RSF controls the central and western regions, and has a slightly greater presence in the capital, Khartoum.
A divided country
Clashes have intensified in several areas, including El Fasher, the capital city of North Darfur province. The army’s last major stronghold in the sprawling Darfur region, the city has been under siege by the RSF for months. Sporadic clashes have also been reported in the provinces of al-Jazeera and Sennar in central Sucan, as well as Khartoum and al-Few area in the eastern province of al-Qadarif.
The two conflicting parties are intertwined in one body.
Gamal Hamed, a senior official at the Justice and Equality Movement rebel group, estimated that the RSF has deployed in 60% of Sudan. He described the conflict as a war of attrition, noting that both sides were part of the military establishment during the rule of dictator Omar al-Bashir.
“The two conflicting parties are intertwined in one body, and they know the strengths and pressure points of each of them well,” Hamed said
Attrition warefare
Sudanese political analyst Mohammed Toshrin said the army initially adopted a “strategy of exhausting and weakening its rival” pointing to its military’s knowledge of the nature and flexibility of the RSF which it gained from its fight against rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan provinces.
“The Sudanese army’s doctrine is basically a defensive one. From day one, it defends its areas and fortifies them,” he said, adding that the army depended on special forces, which include some militails, to reclaim areas it lost in the beginning of the war.
The RSF, on the other hand, focused on exhausting its opponent through repeated attacks on army camps. This strategy saw some success in the first months of the war, when the army was in a state of confusion, Torshin said.
Destroying supply centers
The RSF accused the army of destroying warehouses of the main oil refinery in Sudan, the Khartoum Oil Refinery, following fierce battles in the vicinity of the refinery north of Khartoum. The army hit the area, which has been controlled by the RSF since the start of the war. The RSF used the refinery to supply their forces with fuel.
“Both parties are focusing on attacking supply warehouses and military equipment,” Hamed of the rebel group said, adding that the army uses its air force while the RSF resorted to drones. He said foreign support the two sides receive has contributed to prolonging the conflict.
Sudanese civilians are the main victims of this stalemate.
Strategies of attrition include striking social incubators. The RSF attacked Arab tribes that are loyal to the army in Darfur, and engaged in a propaganda campaign to whitewash its image, Hamed said, after the atrocities RSF forces committed, especially against African tribes in the region last year.
The army, meanwhile, managed to break ties between the RSF and rebel groups that signed a peace deal with the government in 2020. It established a joint force with those groups established in Darfur to counter RSF attacks on the region. The joint force helped make the balance of power in El Fasher, Hamed said. The RSF has so far failed to break up the city’s defenses, but the joint force also has yet to break the RSF siege. Clashes reported over the past weeks in and around the city.
Sudanese civilians are the main victims of this stalemate, which has created the world’s largest displacement crisis. More than 8.8 million people have been forced to flee their homes since the war began in April last year. Of them, more than 2 million people crossed the border to neighboring countries, according to the International Organization for Migration.
