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How The “Russian Davos” Exposes Putin's Utter Dependence On China

The Spief, the political-economic forum dear to the Russian president, takes place this weekend in Saint Petersburg. The West will be absent, as the Kremlin increasingly appears beholden to Beijing.

Image showing March 21, 2023, Moscow, Russia: China's President XI Jinping (on the left) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are seen during a state dinner hosted by the Russian president at the Faceted Chamber in the Moscow Kremlin.

March 21 Xi-Putin summit in Moscow

Pavel Byrkin/Zuma
Benjamin Quénelle


PARIS — Dubbed the “Russian Davos,” the annual affair had become a favorite Vladimir Putin ritual in his hometown of Saint Petersburg. Every year in mid-June, the head of the Kremlin was proud to show off his native city and attract foreign investors. Spief, the forum orchestrated to rally all the Russian political-economic elite and seduce the world’s top brass, featured panels by day and parties by night.

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Sixteen months after the beginning of the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, “it’s the end of the Spief”, says a European regular of the event. The forum is now a shadow of its former self. The “business” program pales into insignificance. But, above all, the guest list is looking bleak.

Without surprise, while the G7 just promised new sanctions against Moscow and the European Union is getting ready for an eleventh pack of measures, Western investors will be lacking in Saint Petersburg. But, for the first time ever, no Western journalist is allowed there.

Like others, Les Echos first received the organizers’ accreditation. Then the Kremlin came in behind: “hostile countries will be annulled,” said a high-level source. Of course, he’s talking about the accreditation cards, not the countries as such. But the Freudian slip reveals the current mood.

Excluded from the G8

The authorities’ message: Russia is not isolated. Spief must therefore welcome political leaders and businessmen coming from “friendly” countries. The guest of honor — which was France in 2018, with the presence of President Emmanuel Macron — is this year the United Arab Emirates. This “international” forum will be attended by African, Asian and South American guests. And maybe, like last year, by some from the Taliban.

But, in reality, there will not be many foreign delegations from the Global South, including among the BRICS members. Since he was excluded from the G8 and chose not to participate in the latest G20, it’s now officially Vladimir Putin’s preferred global arena.

On an almost permanent tour of the “Global South,” his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been criss-crossing African countries in particular.

image showing people walking past a SPIEF Shop at the ExpoForum Convention and Exhibition Centre, a venue of the 2023 St Petersburg International Economic Forum scheduled for June 14-17

RUSSIA, ST PETERSBURG - JUNE 13, 2023: People walk past a SPIEF Shop at the ExpoForum Convention and Exhibition Centre, a venue of the 2023 St Petersburg International Economic Forum scheduled for June 14-17.

Sergei Fadeichev/Zuma

“The deal of the century”

With the BRICS, Moscow wants to give itself an alternative to the “Western order” it denounces. Its main ally: China. When, last March, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met, they multiplied the “dear friends” and celebrated a “new era” between Moscow and Beijing.

Putin toasted a flagship project that is still hypothetical: “Power of Siberia 2”, the mirage gas pipeline that is to supply China’s powerful neighbor with some 50 billion m3 of Russian gas, originally destined for Europe. Vladimir Putin praised “the deal of the century”. At his side, Xi Jinping was more timid.

But it’s a fact: the economic partnership between the two old communist enemies, whose longstanding mutual distrust remains, is growing. In one year, all sectors combined, their trade has exploded, already reaching a record $190 billion (+30%) in 2022. The cooperation is coming true.

China has largely replaced Europe as the top market for Russian oil. The share of the yuan in Russian foreign trade currencies has soared from 0.5% to 16% in the span of a year. In the Russian Far East, special economic zones are being set up to welcome Chinese investors, who are also very much involved behind the scenes in the development of the “new trade route” to the North, in the Arctic.

Beijing in charge

It’s also more and more visible in the streets of Moscow, as well as in other big cities. Kia and Hyundai, Renault and Volkswagen are of course still omnipresent. But over the last months, Haval, Chery and Geely have made their presence clear. Chinese cars, manufactured in Russia or imported, now account for more than 40% of sales - against 7% in 2021.

Russia is becoming dependent on China.

According to experts, by 2025, they will represent about two thirds. Another sure sign: hotels are filling up with Chinese tourists. The lines of packed buses, a forgotten sight since Covid, are once again becoming part of the Russian urban landscape. In Moscow, as in Saint Petersburg.

The automotive industry, like other Russian industrial sectors, has to turn to China’s life-saving supply chains to make up for the damage caused by Western sanctions, maintain industrial production and satisfy the needs of a consumerist society.

In fact, Russia is becoming dependent on China. Vladimir Putin, who will parade this week at the Saint Petersburg forum, knows the relationship is unbalanced. Standing next to Xi Jinping in March, he admitted being “a little envious” of the efficiency of his powerful neighbor’s “leap forward”, of the system put into place to “develop its economy and strengthen the state”.

In Russia, Chinese businessmen are focusing above all on business, far from political theatrics. At the “Russian Davos”, barring any surprise, few will consider it useful to have made the trip.

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The Problem With Always Blaming Climate Change For Natural Disasters

Climate change is real, but a closer look at the science shows there are many factors that contribute to weather-related disasters. It is important to raise awareness about the long-term impact of global warming, but there's a risk in overstating its role in the latest floods or fires.

People on foot, on bikes, motorcycles, scooters and cars navigate through a flooded street during the day time.

Karachi - People wade through flood water after heavy rain in a southern Pakistani city

Xinhua / ZUMA
Axel Bojanowski


BERLIN — In September, thousands of people lost their lives when dams collapsed during flooding in Libya. Engineers had warned that the dams were structurally unsound.

Two years ago, dozens died in floods in western Germany, a region that had experienced a number of similar floods in earlier centuries, where thousands of houses had been built on the natural floodplain.

Last year saw more than 1,000 people lose their lives during monsoon floods in Pakistan. Studies showed that the impact of flooding in the region was exacerbated by the proximity of human settlements, the outdated river management system, high poverty rates and political instability in Pakistan.

There are many factors that contribute to weather-related disasters, but one dominates the headlines: climate change. That is because of so-called attribution studies, which are published very quickly after these disasters to highlight how human-caused climate change contributes to extreme weather events. After the flooding in Libya, German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung described climate change as a “serial offender," while the Tageszeitung wrote that “the climate crisis has exacerbated the extreme rainfall."

The World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA) has once again achieved its aim of using “real-time analysis” to draw attention to the issue: on its website, the institute says its goal is to “analyse and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events." Frederike Otto, who works on attribution studies for the WWA, says these reports help to underscore the urgent need for climate action. They transform climate change from an “abstract threat into a concrete one."

In the immediate aftermath of a weather-related disaster, teams of researchers rush to put together attribution studies – “so that they are ready within the same news cycle," as the New York Times reported. However, these attribution studies do not meet normal scientific standards, as they are published without going through the peer-review process that would be undertaken before publication in a specialist scientific journal. And that creates problems.

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