-Analysis-
PARIS — If it were a movie, this conflict would be called “The Battle of the Sierra Madre,” like a good Western. But this is not a film: the Sierra Madre is the name of an old rusty cargo ship from World War II, stranded on some rocks in the South China Sea. And it is the focus of a naval standoff between China and the Philippines, a pretext for tensions indicative of the new U.S.-China Cold War.
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The Sierra Madre is stranded at Second Thomas Shoal, located 300 kilometers from the nearest Philippine coast and 1,000 kilometers from the Chinese island of Hainan. Beijing claims most of the South China Sea, based on old maps that show a nine-dash line, particularly generous to Chinese claims.
It doesn’t matter that the Philippines claims the Second Thomas Shoal, and that a maritime tribunal ruled in its favor. China is in conflict with almost all of the South China Sea’s coastal nations and intends to assert the law of the biggest, the strongest. This is the backdrop of the “Battle of the Sierra Madre.”
Imagine the scene: to assert their rights, the Filipinos have stationed a garrison on the only structure at Second Thomas Shoal, the old Sierra Madre cargo ship. There is nothing else on these rocks in the middle of the sea.
Where the battle begins
But the Philippine soldiers need supplies and personnel rotations on the rusty hulk. And that’s where the battle begins. For months, the Chinese coast guard has been trying to disrupt the Philippine shuttles. Initially with water cannons, then this Monday in a more brutal manner: Chinese sailors attacked the Philippine boats, destroyed the equipment on board and injured a soldier. A coast guard vessel also rammed a Philippine ship.
Manila has granted Washington use of four military bases, which happen to be the closest to Taiwan.
The Philippines is furious, but Beijing acts as if all this happened in Chinese waters. The Chinese government is demanding that The Philippines ask for passage permission each time they want to supply the Sierra Madre, a way of asserting its power. This could remain a minor conflict, were it not for the Cold War context.
Why the Cold War? The Philippines is an ally of the United States, and the two countries are bound by a defense treaty. To make matters worse, Manila has granted Washington use of four military bases, which happen to be the closest to the island of Taiwan, claimed by China.
A prime example
The rocks of Second Thomas Shoal are a pretext for a broader, more subdued confrontation between China and the United States. Washington faces a dilemma: At what point do the incidents around the Sierra Madre become serious enough for The Philippines to activate its defense treaty with the United States, with all the risks of escalation?
Firearms have not yet been used. The Chinese assailants on Monday had machetes and clubs, and the Filipinos were ordered not to shoot. The use of firearms could trigger the much-feared escalation.
This is a prime example of how, in today’s world, everything is a pretext for tension between superpowers, whether on the Korean Peninsula where Russian President Vladimir Putin visits his new friend Kim Jong Un; or around an abandoned and rusty old cargo ship in the South China Sea. They should make a movie about it…
