-Analysis-
PARIS — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused calls by the opposition to dissolve the Bundestag, the federal parliament. Opponents cited the French example, and indeed the defeat for Germany’s governing coalition in this weekend’s European elections was just as devastating as the one suffered by President Emmanuel Macron in France.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
The German electoral map says it all. The territory of the former West Germany is almost entirely black, the color of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU). In the east, in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), there is also only color: the blue of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Here and there, hints of pink or green, the colors of two of the three parties in the governing coalition (the Social Democratic Party and the Greens), serve as reminders that they exist, especially in Berlin. But they are well hidden on a map that clearly shows their crushing defeat.
Winners and losers
Victory is first and foremost that of the CDU, former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, which has risen from the ashes to obtain 30% of the votes. But it is also a victory for the AfD, which has become the country’s No. 2 party and maintains total hegemony in the former GDR. Indeed, in contrast with the French case, the rise of the far-right also reflects the territorial divide between two Germanies.
The three parties in the coalition led by Scholz have suffered a colossal defeat. They are paying for the loss of confidence in Germany, spikes in energy prices following the halt of Russian gas imports (a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), doubts about the weakened German industry and, like everywhere in Europe, the question of immigration.
With 14% of the popular vote, Scholz’s SPD records its worst ever score, while the Greens, who were riding a wave of success a few years ago, fell to 12%. The coalition is now facing an impasse.
Serious introspection
But it’s the AfD’s score that raises questions.
Founded only a decade ago, the party was undermined by internal scandals that mobilized millions across the country a few months ago, shocked by the party’s project to “remigrate” foreigners and Germans with foreign backgrounds. The party also had to replace its main candidate for the European elections after some negationist remarks on WWII, but it still manages to control the East of the country, with the exception of Berlin.
This fall, three eastern Länder, or regions, will head to the polls, which have become strongholds of the AfD — a party so radical that French far-right leader Marine Le Pen excluded if from the European parliamentary group of her National Rally party. A far-right victory in one of these Länder would be a first since German reunification three decades ago.
Germany and France are entangled in political situations that are making them weaker.
The CDU’s national victory, and the AfD’s phenomenal growth are undermining Scholz and his shaky coalition, even though federal elections are not due until fall 2025.
At the European level, the union’s two largest and most influential countries, Germany and France, each in their own way, are entangled in political situations that are making them weaker. That was not the scenario predicted just a few weeks ago, back when Europe was seeking to put itself in marching order ahead of a possible Donald Trump win in the United States in November.
In Germany, as in France, serious introspection is needed to understand where everything went wrong.
