What Explains Saudi Arabia’s Sudden Wave Of Amnesty For Dissidents?

-Analysis-

RIYADH — In an unexpected turn, Saudi Arabia is witnessing a wave of prisoner releases for those who have completed their sentences, with some having spent years behind bars. Yet concerns persist over potential retrials or indefinite detentions without legal clarity.

The reform was followed by an even bigger, long-awaited step: the unprecedented announcement allowing the “voluntary” return of exiled individuals. State Security Chief Abdulaziz al-Howairini announced the change, quoting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during an appearance on a Ramadan program: “The homeland is for everyone, and the state rehabilitates and does not punish.”

This statement was quickly picked up by local newspapers and made headlines, reigniting discussions about human rights conditions in the kingdom and raising questions over the true nature of the initiative. The statement also suggested possibility of opposition figures returning and of “misled individuals” reaching out to embassies abroad.

But how serious is this new direction from Riyadh? Most of these exiles were forced to leave due to their political views or human rights activism — like the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed inside his country’s consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

Is Saudi Arabia truly ready for this change? Or is this shift merely a political repositioning without real guarantees for the future?

Exile returns uncertain

Among the Saudi exiles or stranded abroad, are scholarship students who got stuck after following the events that unfolded in the country over recent years, women who fled oppressive family control in the absence of fair laws protecting them, relatives of detainees, outspoken critics now on wanted lists, and others.

This may explain al-Howairini’s classification: Anyone who raised their voice or expressed dissent in the past years is now labeled as part of the “opposition,” while those who remained abroad for other reasons and lived as migrants or exiles are considered “misled.”

Ten years of arrests and silencing dissent may have been enough to instill fear in the hearts of Saudis.

Yet, this opening remains incomplete. Many of those released are still banned from traveling or expressing their opinions publicly. Meanwhile, a significant number of high-profile detainees remain imprisoned, including well-known clerics like Salman al-Ouda, Safar al-Hawali, and Awad al-Qarni, who are in concerning health conditions that may explain delays in their release — despite most others arrested alongside them being freed.

Activists such as Essam al-Zamil, Abdulrahman al-Sadhan, Turki al-Jasser, Waleed Abu al-Khair, and Mohammed al-Rabea also remain behind bars. The latter was arrested as part of the May 2018 crackdown on feminist activists, all of whom have since been released — except him.

Saudi Arabia’s crossroads

Saudi Arabia is stepping into key political and regional roles. The country has also cemented its presence in entertainment and sports, preparing for international sporting events and competing for a foothold in global investments. Thus, improving its human rights record could significantly bolster its future development goals.

Additionally, the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could influence some Arab rulers’ shifting policies, especially with the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the scene. His aggressive economic stance prioritizes numbers over alliances, as evidenced by his demand for Saudi Arabia to invest trillion at the start of his new term. Meanwhile, the Abraham Accords are resurfacing under the headline: “The goal now is Saudi Arabia.”

Real guarantees must be in place to prevent history from repeating itself.

Above all, 10 years of arrests and silencing dissent may have been enough to instill fear in the hearts of Saudi citizens, who now comply with the sweeping changes reshaping their country — politically, economically and even socially. Despite the optimism surrounding the recent measures, many questions and concerns remain. Travel bans on released activists persist, and the delayed release of prominent figures continues to raise doubts.

While these shifts seem like a significant step toward improving Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, their impact depends on how serious and sustained they are. More importantly, real guarantees must be in place to prevent history from repeating itself. After all, how can a returning exile trust their freedom of movement when their own relative is still barred from traveling?