–Analysis–
KYIV — The Russian Beriev A-50 and its crew of 15 had just reached its patrol zone over the Sea of Azov on Sunday evening when the aircraft suddenly disappeared from the radar screens in Moscow. A short time before, an Il-22M1 Russian flying command center had already had to make an emergency landing. What happened?
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the A-50 — an early warning and control aircraft like NATO’s Awacs, with a 300-million-euro price tag — had been shot down in the night sky; the Il-22 was irreparably damaged.
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“For Russia, the loss is both an embarrassment and a catastrophe,” says Italian military expert Thomas Theiner. “It was probably shot down with a German Patriot system that was mounted on a truck close to the front line to reach the target.”
The German air defense system is also believed to be responsible for at least five downed Russian fighter jets that Ukraine claimed for itself in December.
Russian losses on all fronts
Despite ongoing questions about Ukraine’s prospects in the war, the past few months have not gone well for the Russian army.
In addition to shooting down aircraft, Ukraine has been able to destroy a number of important Russian air defense systems and radar installations behind the front lines, as well as several military bases, naval vessels and the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the occupied Crimean peninsula. In addition, there were enormous losses on the battlefield.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Davos this week that the Patriot system was working even better than the U.S. had expected: “The Russians are shocked, and I’ll tell you honestly, our partners are shocked that this system really works so well,” said Zelensky.
U.S. intelligence estimates that more than 220 Russian combat vehicles have been knocked out of action since October, equivalent to the vehicles of six battalions in total.
Also, 13,000 Russian soldiers are said to have been killed or wounded along the 50-kilometer-long axis from Avdiivka to Novopavlivka in eastern Ukraine. German military expert Nico Lange estimates that the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in this region could be as high as 20,000. There are similar reports of devastating losses on other sections of the front where Russia is currently on the offensive.
Putin’s calculations
Moscow’s ruthless consumption of human and material resources has been evident since the beginning of the invasion.
Western intelligence agencies are convinced that Russia has now had to replace 90% of its troops. Many of its units have been redeployed for the second, third and some even for the fourth time.
Missile production is not running consistently due to a lack of spare parts because of Western sanctions.
Vladimir Putin is counting on a long war of attrition and a decline in Western support for Ukraine. He hopes that his huge country will be able to produce so many soldiers and weapons that Ukraine and the West will wind up with nothing less to oppose Russia in the long term.
But can Putin’s calculations really work out? Is Russia’s military strategy sustainable in the long term?
There are many arguments appearing that look like the answer is: No.
The army is retrieving decades-old Soviet tanks and guns from storage depots. The Russian arms industry is not producing enough artillery shells and the Kremlin has to order low-quality ammunition from North Korea. Missile production is also not running consistently due to a lack of spare parts because of Western sanctions. Some missiles cannot be produced at all.
Untrained, unskilled soldiers
Russia may have a large army, but the quality is steadily declining. “This is no longer a real army,” explains Theiner, himself a former officer in the Italian Alpini General Command. “The training is abysmal and there are hardly any experienced officers left, as they have long since been killed.” The lack of professionalism of Russian units often leaves military personnel in disbelief.
For example, armored columns of the Russian army drive blindly into the same minefield one after the other. One could almost speak of suicide squads, but this explains why the Russian troops lost over 160 of their vehicles in their offensive in Avdiivka within just three months. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, only lost 33.
Russian tactics still include human wave attacks. It is mainly Storm-Z units that rush enemy lines, poorly armed. These brigades are mainly made up of inmates from Russian prisons. On some sections of the front, these units are said to be so thinly spread that there is unrest among the regular troops. Marines and paratroopers fear that they may have to replace the “cannon fodder.”
“They consider themselves to be an elite who do not make such attacks,” said Nataliya Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Command. She was referring to the bridgehead near Krynky on the Dnipro River. Ukrainian soldiers crossed the river in October and the Russian army has repeatedly failed to push them back to the other bank.
Arms production lags
Russian tank production and tank stocks also raise major questions. Various estimates assumed Russia had reserves of up to 17,000 tanks. At the beginning of the war, the Russian army had around 3,000 tanks in service. Of these, at least 2,600 have since been destroyed, damaged or captured by the enemy, as documented by the Dutch open source platform Oryx.
Russia is dependent on old stocks, mostly from the Soviet era, as tank production is lagging far behind the loss figures. However, the depots are nowhere near as full as is often assumed. A study by the French Institute Action Resilience (IAR) shows that the reserves comprise a maximum of 6,000 tanks.
Western support does not appear to be waning for the time being.
The French think tank calculated this figure using satellite images of storage bases in the Russian Federation from April and September 2021. “Russia could run out of tanks,” wrote the U.S. business magazine Forbes recently. Finally, the IAR study states that Russian industry can only produce 390 tanks a year, not 1,500 as claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Western support, on the other hand, does not appear to be waning for the time being. In any case, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared this week at the World Economic Forum (WEF) that the EU’s planned support for Ukraine amounting to 50 billion euros would be pushed through despite Hungary’s existing veto.
In Davos, representatives of the U.S. government also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the aid would be continued. If the Kremlin sticks to its strategy of a war of attrition, it may very well wind up that Russia is the one that loses from exhaustion.
