-Analysis-
PARIS — The 27 member countries of the European Union have adopted their 14th package of sanctions against Russia, since the invasion of Ukraine nearly two and a half years ago. The EU foreign ministers adopted measures targeting the energy and finance sectors, while also aiming to prevent sanctions circumvention and stop European associations and political parties from receiving funds from Russia.
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These new sanctions raise two questions: the first is about the effectiveness of these economic measures that Ukraine’s allies had hoped would weaken Russia more quickly. As an energy exporter, Russia hasn’t been crippled by the sanctions, which also have not been imposed by many non-Western countries.
Yet while they have not had the hoped-for sledgehammer effect, the sanctions do nonetheless hinder Russia’s war effort, forcing it to turn to pariah countries like North Korea.
But the other question is even more complex: Will European cohesion against Moscow withstand the far-right surge on the continent? What would happen in the event of a victory by the National Rally in France’s legislative elections on June 30 and July 7? Will the sanctions adopted yesterday be the last?
Le Pen or Meloni?
During his press conference Monday, the potential prime minister from the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, presented a moderate position on Ukraine and Russia. He expressed support for “logistical and defense material” aid to Ukraine, but does not go as far as Emmanuel Macron on the presence of French soldiers on Ukrainian soil or the use of French weapons against Russian territory.
More Meloni than Le Pen
This is a much more nuanced position than, for example, Marine Le Pen’s program in the 2022 presidential election, which “Politico” reported last week had conveniently disappeared from the National Rally’s website. Le Pen, the longtime right-wing leader, was much more committed to Russia — and even advocated for France’s withdrawal from NATO’s integrated command.
Bardella, on the other hand, says he does not question France’s international defense commitments.
Orban no longer isolated
The National Rally is aware that its past ties with Moscow — the party’s financing by a Russian loan, Marine Le Pen’s meeting with Vladimir Putin during the 2017 campaign — may hinder its normalization with part of the public. Bardella thus presents an image closer to that of Giorgia Meloni, the far-right Italian prime minister, who has shown herself to be a loyal ally of Ukraine and NATO.
So, more Meloni 2024 than Le Pen 2017 or 2022.
Nevertheless, “cohabitation” of joint rule between President Emmanuel Macron and a prime minister from the National Rally would not be smooth sailing on foreign and defense policy issues; more complex, certainly, than those we have known during previous joint rule between the head of state and head of government, where the challenge was more political rivalry than fundamental policy disagreements.
This will be all the more tense since several European governments are now influenced by the far-right, an evolution from when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was quite isolated in his support for Moscow.
This leads to the second question I began with: Will this 14th round of sanctions against Russia be the last?
