Updated April 7, 2024 at 6:15 p.m.*
-Analysis-
PARIS — “Baroque and threatening”: that was French President Emmanuel Macron‘s description Thursday of the telephone exchange between French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. The two words are rarely found side-by-side in diplomatic language, but summarize the unusual scene we were treated to from Wednesday’s phone call. Because the stakes are high, a closer look is necessary.
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A telephone conversation between two defense ministers at a time of high tension is nothing out of the ordinary, but it can help to avoid escalation. Divergent accounts afterward are the norm, with each side trying to protect its own interests. But the Lecornu-Shoigu case is a whole other level.
Paris had called for the meeting in the wake of the terrorist attack in Moscow. The attack was claimed by the Islamic State (ISIS), a common enemy of both countries, which have suffered the blows: this could have enabled a reasonable exchange despite their opposition on Ukraine.
Instead, we got a web of “baroque” accusations, to use the French president’s words, lies and serious threats.
A grave accusation
The first explanation is that Russian leadership is locked in its initial story, which blames Ukraine for the attack, despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility, the arrest of several Tajiks and the absence of evidence incriminating Ukraine.
Moscow added another layer to this shaky construction by suggesting that the French secret services may have been involved in preparing the attack. Nobody believes it for a second, not even Shoigu himself.
But in the information war in Russia or elsewhere (such as in Africa) the bigger the story, the better.
Olympic warning
The second explanation has to do with a very specific aspect of the French context: the approach of the Paris Olympic Games this summer and the security issues involved.
The relationship between France and Russia is complex. Despite Russian aggressiveness, there is a common interest in exchanging information on the movements of terrorist groups. Yet there is growing hostility between Paris and Moscow over Ukraine, especially since France has taken the lead in supporting Kyiv’s army.
Russia feels strong on the military ground in Ukraine, and is refusing to accept any overtures.
The Olympic Games are part of this contradictory tangle. On the one hand, there is the worrying terrorist threat in Paris, and in particular that of ISIS’s Afghanistan-based branch ISIS-Khorasan, which was at work in Moscow. But on the other hand, as Macron stated publicly on Thursday, Russia (which has been excluded from the Paris Games) is expected to try to disrupt them, if only through cyber-attacks that have already begun.
In this context, Shoigu’s comments are a bad omen. Russia feels strong on the military ground in Ukraine, and is refusing to accept any overtures: whether it is the U.S.’s prior information on the attack, or France’s offer of anti-terrorist cooperation.
“Baroque” and “threatening”: a well-chosen combination of words.
*Originally published April 5, 2024, this article was updated April 7, 2024 with enriched media
