-Analysis-
PARIS — Let’s start by saying that foreign interference is not the reason for the outbreak of violence in New Caledonia, a French territory in the South Pacific, over the past few days. Foreign actors cannot be used as scapegoats for problems that are first and foremost those of the territory, and of an internal political process that has gone off the rails.
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New Caledonia is the focus of particular attention from foreign powers. Some are directly interested, such as China, which is very active in the region. Others are settling their score with France for reasons that have little to do with the fate of the Indigenous Kanaks or the riches of New Caledonia’s subsoil.
Azerbaijan, the ex-Soviet republic in the Caucasus, is one of those countries — and its involvement in this case comes as a surprise. Yesterday, Gérald Darmanin, the French Minister of the Interior and Overseas Territories, called Azerbaijan into question. Frédéric Métézeau, from Radio France’s investigative unit, had already uncovered Azerbaijan’s strategy of influence in New Caledonia.
Fuel to the fire
What is Azerbaijan looking for in New Caledonia? Baku (the capital of Azerbaijan) is 8570 miles from Nouméa (the capital of New Caledonia) as the crow flies, and has no historical or settlement links with the territory. But Azerbaijan has chosen the theme of anti-colonialism to embarrass France: Paris is being targeted for its support, including arms supplies, for Armenia in the Caucasus conflicts, and all tricks are fair game.
France is questioning the role of Russia.
There have been political contacts between Baku and Kanak pro-independence circles, which is not illegal, just surprising. But there has also been a veritable war of disinformation, the threads of which France claims to have proof traceable back to Baku. Viginum, the French state body responsible for monitoring the veritable battlefield that has become the internet, has been activated on this case, and is implicating Azerbaijan. And France is questioning the role of Russia.
There’s nothing surprising about this: all the players in modern hybrid warfare are on the lookout to add fuel to the fire as soon as they spot a flaw. France has already fallen victim to this in the Sahel, in Africa. There, Russia and Turkey did not create anti-French sentiment, but rather amplified it.
A wider war of influence
What about China? That’s a more complex question: Beijing is a major player in the Pacific zone. That’s where part of its confrontation with the United States is taking place, from island to island, with a veritable war of influence.
A new prime minister in the Solomon Islands in early May was seen as a gain for China. The Nauru Islands broke with Taiwan in favor of Beijing in January, another Chinese success. The United States is equally present, with the creation of Aukus, its military alliance with Australia, which began in 2021 with episode of a cancelled submarine contract with France in favor of American nuclear submarines.
Beijing, as always, is focused on the long term.
New Caledonia is potential prey, with its immense nickel resources — a crucial mineral for electric batteries — and its possible independence. But in this crisis, China has only been a propaganda relay. Beijing, as always, is focused on the long term.
Which is all the more reason not to make any mistakes in the management of this sensitive Caledonian issue: sharks are on the prowl in the Pacific, and they aren’t doing anyone any favors.
