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Geopolitics

​What The Alexei Navalny Saga Tells Us About Putin’s Intentions On Ukraine

In the year since the arrest of Vladimir Putin's last opponent a new Cold War has begun. In the absence of internal enemies, Russia's increasingly powerful yet isolated ruler must turn to external targets.

Photo of ​Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking with government members in November 2021

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking with government members in November

Anna Akage

-Analysis-

One year ago this week, on Jan. 17, 2021, Vladimir Putin effectively disposed of his last viable domestic opponent when Alexei Navalny was detained at the Sheremetyevo airport north of Moscow.

Putin had long struggled with how to handle the firebrand anti-corruption lawyer and politician — and finally decided to eliminate him. Months before, in fact, Navalny was poisoned with the deadly biological weapon Novichok but miraculously survived. The surveillance and attempted murder were carried out by Russia’s FSB state security operatives, one of whom confessed to Navalny himself in a phone conversation.


After receiving treatment in Germany, Navalny decided to return to Russia knowing that he risked being locked away for years. The demonstrations that followed his arrest were violently dispersed, with demonstrators detained by the dozens and taken to detention centers.

Over the course of the past year, more than half of the former coordinators of Navalny's headquarters fled Russia, while the headquarters themselves were recognized as extremist structures and their activities banned on the territory of the Russian Federation. Even Navalny's name is forbidden: Putin never says his name, calling him "this citizen."

Foreign agents and extremists

In an interview this week conducted with TIME by letters, the 45-year-old Navalny wrote from his prison east of Moscow that the West was “falling into Putin’s elementary traps” of trying to prevent an invasion of Ukraine through negotiations, urging Washington and its allies to instead ignore the Russian president's security demands.

“Putin surprised me with the amount of damage he is willing to do to his country, to its future, just to solve one political problem, even an important one. Russia in the fall of 2020 was a different country than it is now, with a very different political regime. Even then it was a fully fledged authoritarian state, but few could have imagined such massive and total barring of candidates from elections, declaring all independent journalists "foreign agents" and thousands of people extremists.”

Who knows if Putin will read the interview. His mind is clearly elsewhere these days, apparently devoting his attention exclusively to foreign affairs, with the amassing of Russian troops on the Ukraine border and relations with the West at an all-time low.

Absolute power knows no fear and recognizes no limits.

But inside and outside the walls of the Kremlin, everything is rarely as it seems.

Navalny’s imprisonment and the de facto end of the opposition have changed Russia. The fear of persecution, the lack of alternatives, the total censorship and propaganda have caused Putin's ratings consistently downward: in November, it was 32%, the lowest result since 2014.

At the same time, the economic situation is getting worse, including the risks of rising inflation, which at the end of 2021, was already at 8.4%, the highest since 2015. The population is getting poorer, and the gap between the super rich and all other Russians is growing sharply. Meanwhile, Putin was busy signing a new law in April to change the Constitution to allow him to run two more times and stay in power until 2036.

Navalny’s imprisonment and the de facto end of the opposition have changed Russia.

Screenshot from Navalny official instagram account

Fuelling the machine

An aging leader with no successors, no enemies, and dwindling popular support is finding it increasingly difficult to explain why he must continue to rule forever. In such a situation, there’s nothing quite like an external threat to fuel the raison d’être of the authoritarian regime. In Putin’s eyes, the perfect threat right now is NATO expansion.

His charismatic leadership is built on his commanding a nuclear power and acting as heir to the Russian tsars, which entails intimidating neighboring countries and deploying a chest-thumping international policy. In just one year of no enemies inside Russia, Putin has effectively returned us to the days of the Cold War with all its military and diplomatic maneuvers. Absolute power knows no fear and recognizes no limits. And Putin’s dealing with his domestic rivals with such cold-bloodedness is also an unspoken message to his foreign adversaries.

Backing down is not an option.

Not only U.S. and European leaders but all the neighbors of the Russian Federation are gradually being drawn into the conflict. International commercial projects such as Nord Stream-2 are being frozen, new sanctions are being prepared, and armies are ready for deployment.

Formally, Ukraine (and Georgia) are to blame in the Kremlin’s eyes, as they want to join NATO in order to protect themselves. Russia views this as aggression, even though Russia's other neighbors — Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Norway, and Black Sea neighbors Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece — are members of the alliance.

Whether Russia's president is ready to engage in a real war is the great unknown, but its aggressive and uncompromising foreign policy — like his disposing of Alexei Navalny — is the latest legitimization of his increasingly absolutist rule now into its third decade. At home, backing down is not an option. We’ll see what happens at the border.

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Geopolitics

Smaller Allies Matter: Afghanistan Offers Hard Lessons For Ukraine's Future

Despite controversies at home, Nordic countries were heavily involved in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. As the Ukraine war grinds on, lessons from that conflict are more relevant than ever.

Photo of Finnish Defence Forces in Afghanistan

Finnish Defence Forces in Afghanistan

Johannes Jauhiainen

-Analysis-

HELSINKI — In May 2021, the Taliban took back power in Afghanistan after 20 years of international presence, astronomical sums of development aid and casualties on all warring sides.

As Kabul fell, a chaotic evacuation prompted comparisons to the fall of Saigon — and most of the attention was on the U.S., which had led the original war to unseat the Taliban after 9/11 and remained by far the largest foreign force on the ground. Yet, the fall of Kabul was also a tumultuous and troubling experience for a number of other smaller foreign countries who had been presented for years in Afghanistan.

In an interview at the time, Antti Kaikkonen, the Finnish Minister of Defense, tried to explain what went wrong during the evacuation.

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“Originally we anticipated that the smaller countries would withdraw before the Americans. Then it became clear that getting people to the airport had become more difficult," Kaikkonen said. "So we decided last night to bring home our last soldiers who were helping with the evacuation.”

During the 20-year-long Afghan war, the foreign troop presence included many countries:Finland committed around 2,500 soldiers,Sweden 8,000,Denmark 12,000 and Norway 9,000. And in the nearly two years since the end of the war, Finland,Belgium and theNetherlands have commissioned investigations into their engagements in Afghanistan.

As the number of fragile or failed states around the world increases, it’s important to understand how to best organize international development aid and the security of such countries. Twenty years of international engagement in Afghanistan offers valuable lessons.

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