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PARIS — More than three months after the October 7 massacre, with the war that has followed in Gaza, all that’s talking are the weapons. But now, for the first time, a draft peace plan is circulating in diplomatic circles. It’s still a matter of informal principles, far from the start of any commitment on the part of any of the warring parties.
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But the very existence of these initial leads shows that thinking is going on, behind the scenes, for “after” the guns will have fallen silent, one way or another. It may take a few more weeks, but that time will come. And we’ll have to pick up the pieces, even if it seems impossible from where we sit today.
Most interestingly, these proposals revolve around the role of Saudi Arabia. This powerful kingdom was on the verge of recognizing Israel on the eve of October 7, a process that has been frozen since the Hamas attack and the Israeli war. Since then, Saudi Arabia has remained very discreet, even refusing any escalation with Iran, which was its mortal enemy until recently.
Saudi Arabia, no matter what, is expected to play a decisive role in resolving the crisis.
A revived Palestinian Authority
The principles of the draft plan are simple: recognition of Israel by the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, which is guardian — let’s not forget — of the Islamic holy sites; in exchange for an “irreversible” commitment by Israel to allow the birth of a Palestinian state.
The wealthy Gulf monarchies would also play an important role in rebuilding Gaza and supporting a revived Palestinian Authority. The first step would be a ceasefire and the release of hostages still held by Hamas.
The only way out of a crisis of this proportion.
These ideas are supported by the United States, which is very much in the driver’s seat in preparing for the “after,” if only to make part of world and American opinion forget the extent of U.S. support for Israel in this war.
Paris confirms this framework, and even encourages Saudi Arabia to “hold firm” on its new demand for a Palestinian state in exchange for recognition of Israel. This is the only way out of a crisis of this proportion.
Long way to peace
There are, of course, plenty of obstacles in the way, starting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fierce hostility to any plans for a Palestinian state, which he reiterated in a defiant press conference Thursday night. And on this point, Netanyahu undoubtedly has the vast majority of Israelis behind him.
A second problem would be the attitude of Hamas, which until now has been hostile to recognition of Israel, and which now has significant support among the Palestinian population.
Nothing is set in stone.
But nothing is set in stone, and all it would take is for this plan to be formalized and gain enough international support to make it credible, to start changing the game.
The cruel irony of this draft plan is that it seems largely inspired by one outlined in 1981 by King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, the great-uncle of the current strongman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The “Fahd plan” was bound to be a non-starter, as the price was too high for Israel.
The ambitious prince and current de facto Saudi leader is eager now to put his violent beginnings behind him, modernize his kingdom and attract tourists: becoming the peacemaker in the Middle East would be part of this radical transformation. But where we sit today, it’s still a long way off.
