Why The Palestinian Question Is Key To Syria’s Future — And Vice-Versa

-Analysis-

BEIRUT — The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria has opened a new chapter in the decades-old ties between Syria and the Palestinians in what is an immensely sensitive phase for both counties.

For more than 50 years, ties had been mostly tense between Palestinian leaders and the Syrian regime, first with Hafez al-Assad and later his son Bashar al-Assad. Palestinian factions themselves were divided between those who supported Damascus and took arms to defend the regime during the 14-year civil war that eventually came to an end with the Assads fleeing in December.

In the past, Palestinians had long accused Assad the father of interfering in their affairs, and supporting factions against others, and his involvement in the bombing of the Tal al-Zaatar refugee camp in Beirut in 1976. The Assad regime has also detained prominent Palestinian leaders in the past, including George Habash, the Marxist founder of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, in 1968.

The Palestinian Authority, PA, which was established as part of the Oslo Accords in early 1990s, has mostly taken a neutral position in its ties with Arab governments, especially after its leader Yasser Arafat sided with Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. Under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, who succeeded Arafat in 2008, the Palestinian Authority’s ties with Syria’s government of Bashar Assad were relatively stable.

The Assad regime had long supported Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that ruled Gaza and engaged with Israel in multiple bouts of combat, including the ongoing war in the Palestinian enclave. Assad condemned Israel’s war on Gaza, but didn’t take any concrete steps to support Hamas.

That decision may trace back to 2011, when the uprising-turned-civil-war erupted against Assad, and Hamas first supported Islamist rebels. Eventually, Hamas mended its ties with Assad, with the support of Iran, the main backer of both.

Now, in both Syria and Palestine, the past suddenly feels far behind.

Hamas and HTS?

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime was dramatic. Instability and chaos are likely to continue in Syria, adding more challenges to the Palestinian refugees in Syria, as well as factions that supported Assad.

Factions that are based in Syria are now threatened, and the instability could prompt Israel to increase their attacks on the Palestinians there, similar to the way it targeted the Iranian-backed militias.

It’s not yet clear what is the position of Syria’s de facto rulers – Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) — towards Hamas and the Palestinians in general. Designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the West, HTS has adopted an extremist Islamic ideology, and in theory is close to Hamas, which is an affiliate of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood group.

Palestinians are urgently required to engage in deep domestic dialogue to end their division and agree on a set of principles to address the towering challenges they face, including the Israeli war on Gaza and their ties with Syria’s new rulers in the way that helps the Palestinian cause.