–Analysis–
PARIS — This is how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed his vision of the current political situation in Europe: “If everything goes as it should, and God is on our side,” he declared, “By the end of the year, the patriots will be a majority in the Western world.”
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The patriots is a term that clearly belongs to the far-right code, and Orban uses it referring to the National Rally (RN) in France and Donald Trump in the U.S.. His dream may very well come to pass, with the success in the first round of French elections this weekend and the weaknesses shown by U.S. President Joe Biden.
On Sunday, Orban took the initiative and announced the creation of a new far-right alliance in the European Parliament, together with the FPÖ, an extremist party which led the polls at the recent European elections in Austria, and the ANO party of former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis.
A subversive group
This shows Orban’s ambition to reshape the European political landscape in his own way, at a moment that he sees as favorable. The goal: subverting the European institutions and changing their course — a considerable challenge, given that he wants to stop European aid to Ukraine, that he has connections with the Kremlin, that he is against the Green Deal and that he opposes the EU migration policy.
There is therefore an explosive side to European politics
The new group of “Patriots,” as it is called, draws from other political forces. Fidesz, Orban’s party, comes from the European People’s Party (EPP), the traditional right-wing force that he broke with; the FPÖ left another far-right group in the parliament, Identity and Democracy (ID), where the RN sits as well; and ANO was a member of Emmanuel Macron’s Renew Europe liberal party until recently. The populist and ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party from Poland could also join the group, together with Italy’s League party, currently sitting with the ID.
There is therefore an explosive side to European politics, influenced by the far-right push observed across the bloc. It is also true that the various components that make up this group are finding it hard to get along.
A divided far-right
Can Orban unite the far right? It has surely been his ambition for a long time, and he’s up to the task. He has to his advantage the fact that he was the first leader belonging to this political family to seize power, and he also has excellent relations with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. He is the perfect candidate for the leadership of those he calls “Patriots.”
But his plan also clashes with national dynamics. The Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right party Brothers of Italy (FdI) and of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), has tried to be a spoilsport in the reconvened grand coalition that will lead Europe for another five years: right-wing (EPP), social-democrats (S&D) and liberals (Renew Europe). Meloni clearly failed to do so, but, as a founding country of the EU and its third-largest economy, Italy will play its card.
The coming months will be crucial, with a growing number of countries led or influenced by the far-right: the Netherlands yesterday, France tomorrow with a cohabitation (a scenario where the French president and the prime minister come from two different parties, significantly diminishing the role of the president) and soon it will be Germany. Enough to dream of a blocking minority in the EU.
Hungary currently occupies the rotating presidency of the EU, a symbolic role that Orban wants to use as a trampoline. The results of the first round in France suggest that we should take it seriously.
