-Analysis-
PARIS — At the respectable age of 75, NATO is certainly the most powerful military alliance of our time: 32 countries, including three nuclear powers on both sides of the Atlantic, including, of course, the United States, the world’s leading military power; and two new members, Sweden and Finland, who were pushed out of their neutrality by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Yet, behind this week’s anniversary celebrations in Washington, there are real existential concerns, which it would be inappropriate to let spoil the mood.
The first is, of course, the “age of the captain,” U.S. President Joe Biden. The host of this summit, Biden’s cognitive abilities have been the center of discussions since his botched debate with Donald Trump. All participants will be keeping an eye on him to form their own opinions, even if the subject will never come up.
Uncertainty in Washington
The stakes are high: If Trump wins the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, it will be a leap into the unknown for NATO. During his first term in the White House, Trump had threatened to leave the alliance. And no one really knows what he will do if he is reelected.
Trump shocked Europeans last February by saying he would not defend countries that don’t meet the 2% GDP defense spending commitment. He even joked that he would invite Russia to attack them: No one laughed.
These heavy clouds make the Washington summit a falsely festive one.
This fear of Trump’s return leads to NATO’s second weakness: that of its “European pillar.” The countries of the continent have long relied on the American umbrella for their security, and while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a wake-up call, it is still not enough.
If Trump were to withdraw the United States from NATO, would the Europeans be able to support Ukraine alone? It’s not likely. Would they be able to defend the eastern flank against Russia alone? Again, the answer is no, even though countries like Poland are making considerable efforts to invest in defense.
Paralysis in Paris
The issue will not be addressed directly in Washington, as that would be defeatist in front of Biden, who is clinging to his candidacy. But the question will be on everyone’s mind.
The difficulty is that the head of state who most strongly championed the idea of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, a structured “European pillar” within the alliance to prepare for the possible future, is French President Emmanuel Macron. And he arrives in Washington considerably weakened by his failed snap elections gamble and the paralysis looming in Paris.
France, due to its particular history during the time of General Charles de Gaulle, has long been viewed with suspicion by other members, who suspected it of wanting to weaken NATO. Putin and Trump have changed this perception. But now it’s France that is not quite up to the task.
These heavy clouds make the Washington summit a falsely festive one. It will be marked first and foremost by Ukraine and its war against the Russian invasion at NATO’s doorstep. The alliance massively supports Ukraine, but what will happen after the U.S. presidential election? No one will have the answer this week in Washington.
