-Analysis-
PARIS — Back to the drawing board. The foundations on which the past decade of French politics was built have suddenly imploded.
Marine Le Pen, the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) candidate, who was consistently leading in polls for the next presidential election, may very well be unable to run — unless an appeal manages to overturn in time. The odds of that happening are slim.
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No one in politics or the judiciary thought the courts would dare — but dare they did.
Le Pen has been sentenced to five years of ineligibility, with immediate effect, while her party has also been drained of more than 5 million euros in fines and damages, also immediately enforceable. Its ability to fund any election campaign has been significantly compromised. For French politics, this is a bonafide earthquake.
The National Rally is, of course, the first to be shaken, as everything within it revolves around its leader. How can a presidential strategy be built while awaiting an appeal and rethinking a defense? How far should the party go in backing the hypothesis of a candidacy of its No. 2 figure, Jordan Bardella — a “plan B” of sorts that is far weaker than it looks in the polls?
Bardella faces challenges inside the party, and is still quite young. “In 2032, Jordan Bardella will be 36,” Marine Le Pen recently noted to Le Figaro, subtly implying that 2032, and not 2027, would be the right time for him to run.
Battles ahead
The first riposte will happen in court. The RN will appeal, Le Pen immediately announced. Fight, denounce this ruling, and quickly reshape the narrative into something that looks more favorable than the court’s judgment. Found guilty of embezzling public funds and thus ineligible for office with immediate effect, you say? “It is French democracy that is being executed,” Bardella countered.
The hashtag #jesoutiensmarine was launched immediately.
The second battle will be political. In recent days, the RN has revived the threat of a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government. A wounded beast is always more dangerous.
The party’s strategy of normalization may be abandoned, especially when its militant base feels victim of a hostile politico-judicial system. How will it make itself heard?
Marine Le Pen may be tempted to embrace Trumpism, which she has so far avoided: attacking judges, defending “freedom of speech,” even calling for mobilization. Will she do it? Europe’s populist leaders — Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban, Geert Wilders, and Matteo Salvini — were the first to support her. On social media, the hashtag #jesoutiensmarine (#isupportmarine) was launched immediately.
The risk of U.S.-style polarization
The risk of a deeply polarized, American-style public debate — radical and violent — is now high. To counter it, both the French left and supporters of President Emmanuel Macron have kept silent about their private doubts regarding this judicial decision. They must not fall into the dangerous trap of questioning the rule of law. They grit their teeth, knowing that something fundamental is at stake and must be preserved.
The era of “why not me?” may be dawning.
At the same time, they recognize that the presidential race is now wide open. If the RN is no longer guaranteed a spot in the second round, why should others feel compelled to link arms in the first round?
The era of “why not me?” may be dawning, with verbal and strategic one-upmanship from every new candidate looking to establish themselves.
One thing is certain amid this sea of uncertainties: we are in for a turbulent ride.
