-Analysis-
PARIS — It’s the story of a political failure: that of Nelson Mandela‘s heirs. It is also the story, as in many other countries before South Africa, of the difficulty of transforming a victorious liberation movement into a governing party.
In the general elections taking place on May 29 in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) — the black nationalist party founded in 1912 — faces its greatest threat in 30 years of power. For the first time, it risks losing its absolute majority in parliament, a shock for a party that based its legitimacy around its fight against apartheid and the universal image of its late leader, Nelson Mandela.
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The ANC will not lose power: No matter the election results, it will remain the largest party in South Africa, by far. But it may be forced to find governing partners, a situation that has never occurred since Mandela’s election 30 years ago this year.
The reasons for this weakening can be summed up in three words: corruption, crime and inequality. On these three issues central to the lives of South Africans, the ANC has failed.
Mandela’s legacy
Mandela’s election as president in 1994 marked the triumph of the old party after centuries of discrimination and then apartheid. The former Robben Island prisoner gave himself the mission of ensuring the most peaceful transition possible and creating a national sentiment: this was the embellished concept of the “rainbow nation.”
The liberators’ aura has drowned in mediocre management.
But his successors have not lived up to his legacy, and, above all, to South Africans’ expectations. This is particularly true from 2009 with the rise to power of Jacob Zuma, a former ANC intelligence chief, who opened the floodgates to corruption at the highest level. Record crime rates and glaring inequalities at the expense of those who had expected from the end of apartheid, have further weakened the party.
The liberators’ aura has drowned in mediocre management. And young people, in particular, the so-called “born free” generation, born after apartheid, are indifferent to past struggles.
A decisive moment
What will happen if the ANC loses its majority? Everything will depend on the extent of the ANC’s losses. If it needs to form a coalition, it will have the choice between a left-wing party, formed from a split in the ANC, Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), or the liberal opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA).
This is a decisive moment for South Africa and its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who has failed to turn things around despite his reputation for efficiency.
It will be a question of choosing between loyalty to a glorious past struggle and sanctioning a failed governing party.
The country had everything to become the superpower of the continent, with its resources, population, democratic constitution and Mandela’s prestige. It squandered its chance, even though it remains a power to be reckoned with, as demonstrated by its recent initiative on Palestine.
But for voters, it will be a question of choosing between loyalty to a glorious past struggle and sanctioning a failed governing party. And it is certainly the end of an era in South Africa.
