Updated Oct. 26, 2023 at 6:40 p.m.
–Analysis-
PARIS — Should the open war between Israel and Hamas be “internationalized,” as a way to limit the carnage?
This was the surprise proposal made by French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, during his two-day visit to Israel, the West Bank and other countries in the region.
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Macron, who was otherwise rather successful in his balancing act between solidarity with Israel and support of Palestinian rights, also put forward a brand new proposal: an international coalition against Hamas. It would be modeled on, or extending the scope of the one that has been assembled against the jihadist movement Islamic State (ISIS).
The proposal comes as something of a surprise, given that the coalition against ISIS includes, in addition to the West, the main Arab countries. It’s hard to see them committing themselves to a proposal alongside Israel at a time when the Jewish state is ruthlessly bombing Gaza, arousing strong emotions across the Arab world.
The idea seems to have been improvised, as it was adjusted several times during the day on Tuesday.
In the end, it’s more a question of sharing intelligence, controlling financial flows and imposing sanctions than of going to war on Israel’s side. Nonetheless, the proposal raises several tough questions.
Trigger risk
Consider the context. Since Oct. 7, Israel has been bombing Hamas and the Palestinian population in Gaza, and massing its troops for a ground operation that appears imminent, and promises to be even bloodier in this densely populated territory.
Extending the fight against Hamas would therefore be a way of “framing” the Israeli response.
A ground operation also risks triggering a regional escalation, with pro-Iranian Hezbollah in Lebanon, and even with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have already launched missiles in the direction of Israel, intercepted by the Americans.
Calls for Israel to respect international humanitarian law have come up against the anger of Israelis following the trauma of the Oct. 7 attack.
Extending the fight against Hamas across the region would therefore be a way of “framing” the Israeli response, keeping it “within the bounds” of international law. Even if “framing” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is quite a challenge.
Three obstacles
The proposal faces three obstacles. The first is that it is only likely to succeed if it’s backed by the United States, which is the only country with the necessary weight to influence Israel.
The second is that the Arab countries of the region, whatever their opinions, are affected by movements of opinion heated up by the images of Gaza.
The third is that equating ISIS with Hamas won’t work so long as the Palestinian question is ignored, as it has been for far too long.
And this is where Emmanuel Macron was undoubtedly most relevant — he was the first foreign visitor since Oct. 7 to say loud and clear, both in Jerusalem and in Ramallah, his two stops Tuesday, that a political solution was “more necessary than ever.” And that it requires two states. He repeated this Wednesday in Amman.
It was important to say it after years of neglect by the international community, which has left the field wide open to Israel expanding settlements in the West Bank, and tightening its colonial grip on the Palestinians.
But there will have to be some movement on this issue before the countries of the region really commit themselves. That’s if the dreaded expansion across the region doesn’t occur first.
