-Analysis-
PARIS — Call it “the 10 days that changed France’s policy towards Russia.” It began with French President Emmanuel Macron’s declaration that he would not rule out sending military personnel to Ukraine, and ended — provisionally — on Friday with an important summit in Berlin between France, Germany and Poland.
Macron’s interview on Thursday evening with two French television channels sought to send a few messages and clarify positions that may have come as a surprise. It should be said that those who had supported Macron’s stance at the start of the Ukraine war, under which Russia should not be “humiliated,” may have been disconcerted.
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Since then, Macron has already readjusted his approach and stopped expecting anything from Russian President Vladimir Putin. And above all, he has made a clear choice in favor of Ukraine. The turning point came with a tougher speech in Bratislava in June last year.
A new milestone has been reached over these past 10 days, with military overtones that initially created more confusion, but which could prove to be a mobilizing force.
Weapons of ambiguity
Macron’s message to the people of France and Europe, and to Putin is twofold: first, he now insists that Russia must not win, as he repeated last night, citing the danger that such a victory would pose to everyone — including the French: “If Russia were to win, the lives of the French would change. We will no longer have security.” Russia’s cyberattacks on France would then be just a preview.
His second message is that a united Europe must do everything it can, without limits, to prevent Russia from winning. Without limits, that’s the ambiguity that Macron wants to establish, and which has been disconcerting.
That does not mean sending combat troops, but the ambiguity consists in not ruling it out. That is what some other Europeans, led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, found difficult to back, even though many have since rallied to the cause.
European unity
The Berlin summit is decisive because the three countries form the “Weimar Triangle” regional alliance. France, Germany, and Poland need each other; and if they work together, they can make a real difference. Poland is Europe‘s most exposed power and has raised its military spending to a record 4% of GDP, twice the percentage of France.
The Weimar Triangle is a good format for testing the next steps.
Germany is giving Ukraine a great deal of financial support but still appears hesitant — no doubt a character trait of Scholz. Attacked by the conservative opposition over his hesitations, the Chancellor needs to show leadership, and France and Poland can help him.
The Weimar Triangle is a good format for testing the next steps, such as a European defense loan. It’s in everyone’s interest to restore the image of European unity, which is wavering.
The next few months will be tough in Ukraine and around the world, and Europe’s credibility is at stake. Putin is watching.
