-Analysis-
PARIS — What determines the international influence of a country and its leaders? Is it the strength of its economy? Its military power? The prestige of its President? The stability of its political system?
Emmanuel Macron will quickly have an answer to these questions: on the heels of announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly, following the far-right’s victory in the European elections, the French President has significant international commitments awaiting him.
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Starting Thursday, the Group of Seven (G7), which brings together the main Western economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States), meets in Italy under the presidency of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party instead fared very well in Sunday’s EU voting.
This coming weekend, an international conference on Ukraine will be held in Switzerland, following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to France last week.
Then there will be the European deadlines, the selection of the “top jobs,” the key positions in the EU, a real test of influence; and finally, the NATO Summit on July 9 in Washington.
By then, Macron will know if he has won his bet in dissolving Parliament and calling snap elections (to take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7) or if he is forced into a legislative “cohabitation” with the opposition.
Putin is watching
It’s an understatement to say that France’s international partners were as surprised as the French public by the announcement of the dissolution: surprise gave way to perplexity, then to concern, in a tense global context. It’s one more crisis they didn’t expect.
Let’s be clear, the majority of France’s European partners consider the far-right National Rally party to be oriented in favor of Russia; its rise to power in France would dangerously shift European balances, much to the delight, no doubt, of Vladimir Putin.
Macron has adopted a more bellicose stance on Ukraine in recent months
There are, of course, the safeguards of cohabitation, with a President who retains the important prerogatives of the “reserved domain” of foreign and defense policy; but any change, even marginal, in Paris’s policy towards Ukraine would be perceived as a weakening of Europe.
This is especially true since Macron has adopted a more bellicose stance on Ukraine in recent months, even mentioning the possibility of sending French trainers to Ukrainian soil. Would this still be possible in cohabitation with the National Rally? Probably not.
Sunak and Biden in same boat?
France is also pushing the European Union to develop its defense capabilities, and again, cohabitation with a party hostile to NATO would have significant consequences.
How will Emmanuel Macron be received at these summits? Heads of state and government behave like in a “club”: feigning friendship even if they believe different things. And above all, when each leader speaks, everyone is well aware of the weight of their influence within the club.
Emmanuel Macron risks feeling this when it comes to influencing the composition of the next European Commission. His party is weakened at home, and France’s weight within the party in Europe is itself diminished. This is likely to be reflected in the distribution of key positions. The kingmakers this year are more likely to be Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, or, a sign of the times, Italy’s Meloni, herself on the far right.
At the G7, Macron will be in good company, as British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has also called early elections three days before, on July 4, and will likely be attending his last summit. And then there is Joe Biden, who is now just five months away from his duel with Donald Trump. The members of this privileged club will have plenty of troubles to share.
