-Analysis-
BEIJING — French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were missing just one outstanding passage in the final Franco-Chinese declaration: the statement on the war in Ukraine. Everything else had been negotiated beforehand by the advisors of the two heads of state.
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Ukraine was indeed the most delicate part of Macron’s state visit to China, particularly in light of the Chinese President’s recent visit to Moscow and his proclamations of eternal friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Indeed, there was a surprising pas de deux on Ukraine between Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping, during a public meeting of the two presidents in front of the international press. Macron said out loud what Xi did not say at all, but he stated it in such a way that it seemed to engage the Chinese side. Xi remained indifferent while the monumental People’s Palace in Beijing, a stone’s throw from the Forbidden City, echoed with words never heard here: On Russian aggression, on war crimes, on deported Ukrainian children, on the return to the borders of Ukraine…
The French President also said out loud what he did not manage to include in the final communiqué, recalling that Putin had pledged to Xi in Moscow not to station nuclear weapons outside his territory, only to announce three days later that he would place them in Belarus. It was a public airing of the contradictions built into the relationship between Beijing and Moscow.
Real-fake peace plan
Has China moved? Xi Jinping spoke of the need for a political settlement in rather vague terms, as in his real-fake peace plan, reaffirming in particular his stern opposition to the use of nuclear blackmail. China does not seem ready to go any further in its distancing from Moscow, and the Europeans had few illusions before these talks.
The West is passing the message to China on the risk it would take.
But they have come to believe that everything that does not evolve negatively is something of value. One major “negative’ would be China’s military commitment to Russia by delivering arms. One after the other, the West is passing the message to China on the risk it would take, especially on its economy, if it sent arms to Moscow.
On Wednesday, Macron had warned: “anyone who would help the aggressor would take the risk of being an accomplice.” Thursday’s statements were therefore reassuring.
Praise from Xi
The conflict in Ukraine is increasingly seen as the determining factor for future relations between Europe and China in the coming years. The President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, took part in an extended three-way meeting to make this even clearer to Xi Jinping.
The Europeans also came with an offer of dialogue, Macron more frankly than Von der Leyen, certainly. But the French President reiterated his opposition to the logic of blocs, to a new Cold War, a discourse that pleases Beijing, at a time of strong tensions with the United States. Xi also praised the European strategic autonomy so dear to Macron.
But no one is fooled: this European “re-engagement” with Beijing is fragile: and would quickly crumble if China steps up support for Putin’s war in Ukraine.
