Turkey As A Different Model Of Democracy — For Now

Updated April 6, 2024 at 3:40 p.m.*

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — Will Turkey become Russia? No it won’t. Just like it didn’t become Iran back in the day.

There is no fertile ground in Turkey for authoritarian regimes to flourish upon, as was again confirmed by Sunday’s municipal elections where Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party was roundly defeated. There is neither a historically powerful and autonomous religious hierarchy as there is in Iran nor a government oligarchy that has infiltrated the country as deep as it gets in Russia.

Let’s take the historical thought experiment even further: Turkey didn’t experience a revolution the way that Russia or Iran did. The revolution which founded the Republic of Turkey had a much softer relationship with the country’s past. Modern Turkey rejected its Ottoman past only partially.

Yes, Turkey is unlike Russia or Iran from a historical perspective. But in other terms, Turkey is not a country as harsh as Russia or Iran. Our society is not built on certain emotions like those experienced by the Russian and Iranian people.

But above all else, it’s the democratic experience of more than 100 years, the history of holding elections and the relationship between legitimate rule and the will of the people are realities that cannot be belittled.

Democratic process

Russia recently had elections and reelected the “independent” candidate Vladimir Putin for presidency with 87% of the vote! Nikolai Kharitonov, the candidate of the Communist party and his closest opponent, received barely 4%. This election, in other words, was a scripted scam.

Iran also held runoff elections in early March for the parliament and the senate. They didn’t attract much attention, only about 40% of the Iranian electorate voted. The regime’s efforts to increase the attendance didn’t really work. The conservative parties that support the regime declared their election “victory.” The next round of elections will be held in May.

In Turkey, the democratic experience will not be so easily smothered. The opposition, despite its disappointing loss last year, will continue its strong existence. The possibility of changing the government will be alive in the people’s minds for a long time to come.

Still, despite all this accumulation, there does exist the possibility of this current regime of Turkey growing progressively harsher and more embedded through the democratic processes in the long term.

Let’s explore this possibility more deeply.

Putinism or Sultanism

We have this interesting situation in our hands: the regime took Turkey prisoner with methods that are half-constitutional and half-unconstitutional. The legitimacy of the current regime is indeed questionable within primary constitutional and legal norms. The president being elected for the third time or the existence of a judiciary that doesn’t abide by the rulings of the Constitutional Court are constitutional crises in themselves alone.

This regime that has imprisoned Turkey is having the people play a game, as if a democratic order is in place. The interesting part is that this game of democracy is not wholly a game. It’s something in between a game and reality. It can become the reality at any given moment. Also, in any given moment, it may remain as just a game.

Let me put it like this: this regime can only manage to exist through a performance “as if” it is operating within a democratic order. It cannot completely move outside of the democratic frame. One foot is on democratic ground, the other isn’t, as it searches for another possibility; whether it be supreme leader of the caliphate; Putinism or sultanism.

This regime is both legal and arbitrary; both democratic and authoritarian. A constant swing between the official and the unofficial; the public and the personal; the underground and above the ground; the West and Eurasia.

Again, the current regime of Turkey transforming into an authoritarian one such as Iran and Russia would be very difficult, but not completely impossible. And be sure, among the regime’s constituents, there are plenty who would want to move the regime to the undemocratic ground.

A new era ?

Truth be told, we should not use the term “the opposition” anymore in Turkey because there is not longer a bloc of opposition as there was before the 2023 general and presidential elections. Today, Turkey has different political movements which have different relationships with the regime.

There are those who want to get closer to the regime; those who believe they can change the regime from within and those who swallowed their pride and started to believe that they can work together with the regime.

Actually there is the possibility of forming some kind of a leftist bloc that could rise above 40% with the inclusion of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Kurdish movement and minor socialist parties. Isn’t that interesting? Well.

Ekrem İmamoğlu, the current Istanbul Mayor from the CHP, has again made his mark with a strong victory in Sunday’s race for another term. Many people wanted him to run for the presidency in the 2023 elections but that required a consensus within the opposition bloc, CHP the foremost. That couldn’t happen. There’s no use discussing that any further.

A new era began in Turkey with İmamoğlu’s reelection Sunday. The line of democratic opposition may be redrawn in a nonpartisan way again. Istanbul may be the center of this new line.

Turkey has a door to be noticed up ahead; one that has only just started to open. The course of history may differ and a new process may start for Turkey if this door is used. That’s a process we can imagine for neither Russia, nor Iran.

*This article was originally published on April 1, 2024, and was updated on April 6, 2024 with enriched media.