-Analysis-
PARIS — On the agenda for Western leaders, meeting Thursday and Friday in Italy, is aid to Ukraine. More precisely, they will focus on ensuring support for Ukraine that preempts not only a possible Donald Trump victory, but now also the risk of the far-right in Europe, particularly in France where Marine Le Pen’s party leads polls ahead of snap parliamentary elections.
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Diplomats have been working for weeks on an unprecedented G7 plan to lend an additional $50 billion to Ukraine, without burdening national economies. The trick lies in a unique arrangement: the loan will be repaid by interest on Russian assets frozen in Europe at the start of the Ukraine invasion.
We’re talking about colossal sums: some $300 billion frozen for more than two years. There has been widespread debate about the possibility of using this sum to help Ukraine directly. But the main European countries, including France, opposed the idea, fearing it would set a precedent and cause capital invested in Europe to flee to third countries.
But these frozen assets are generating interest — between $3 and $5 billion a year — which does not belong to Russia, and which will therefore be used to repay the G7 loan. It’s complex, but politically clever.
Trump-proofing
This plan avoids political obstacles: remember that U.S. aid to Ukraine was blocked for months by Republican members of Congress, before a compromise was found. When U.S. President Joe Biden met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris last week, he apologized for the delay, which has severely handicapped the Ukrainian army. Europe, too, has its blockages, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban still playing an unclear game.
France’s National Rally (RN) has long displayed a greater closeness to Russia.
The billion to be discussed at the G7 meeting anticipates Ukraine’s economic and military needs, after the considerable aid already approved this year. But the uncertain outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November prompts caution. This is “Trump-proofing.” And every country in the world is now engaged in “Trump-proofing” to minimize the risk of an abrupt change of course in Washington.
This G7 plan, which was devised with Trump in mind, could just as easily be applied to the risk to Ukraine aid posed by the European far right.
A paradoxical situation
The paradox is that this plan will be examined in Italy, at a summit chaired by the head of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, herself on the extreme right of the political spectrum. Yet since coming to power 20 months ago, the prime minister has been an unwavering supporter of Ukraine’s aid programs, including the supply of arms.
But Meloni does not belong to the same European parliamentary group as France’s National Rally (RN), which has long displayed a greater closeness to Russia, now on the back burner.
If the proposed G7 loan to Ukraine financed by the interest on Russian assets goes through, no one will say publicly that it’s aimed at pre-empting the U.S. election. But “Trump-proofing” will be on everyone’s mind, along with the beginning of “Le Pen or Bardella-proofing”.