-Analysis-
PARIS — The election this Sunday is obviously historic: It is the first time that the populist right, the far right, of the National Rally party has come out on top in legislative elections in France. In 2022, they received 18% in the election that immediately followed the presidential election. In the European elections on June 9, it was 31.5%. On Sunday, support was even higher. The mere fact that an absolute majority in next week’s second round is possible is entirely unprecedented.
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Emmanuel Macron’s failure is confirmed. Even if the parties claiming (more or less now) to support him performed better than expected, his camp is in third place, by a wide margin. The “clarification” he was waiting for has worked against him, and everyone who has tried for three weeks to understand his decision to dissolve parliament remains unsatisfied.
It was one man’s decision, alone in the vertigo of his solitude.
Responsibility of far left
Beyond that, the responsibility of Unbowed supporters in what is happening is also evident. They are a minority in the country compared to the center right (Macron supporters and supporters of Edouard Philippe), the classic center right (LR), and the far right of Marine Le Pen and the National Rally.
Who will the traditional right fear more?
But by repeatedly saying that Nicolas Sarkozy was almost a fascist, François Hollande a traitor and Emmanuel Macron an free market extremist and authoritarian, they have muddied the waters and blurred the lines. And that has made everything possible.
The moderate and traditional right on one side, and the far right on the other, have very little in common. But who will the former fear more when they have to choose between the latter and the left-leaning coalition of the New Popular Front?
What do voters want?
This is the dizzying question that will arise by the run-off on Sunday, with a balance between defending “values” of the French Republic (Liberty, Equality, Fraternity) against the far right and the appalling economic program of the left.
Listening to the statements of political leaders in favor of doing everything to prevent a far-right victory, the scenario of an absolute majority for the party of Le Pen does not seem the most probable. But the possibility of a victory for the left also seems excluded — even if controversial Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon were to step aside.
What is the third possibility? The only question that matters is what do voters fundamentally want.
