-Analysis-
PARIS — When two countries as comparable as France and the UK have national elections at the same time, but appear to be moving in opposite directions, it is worth a closer look. The French will vote over the next two Sundays, and the British on Thursday in snap general elections called by the ruling party, which are each expected to suffer a crushing defeat.
That’s where the similarity ends. The UK is set to go hard left, if the polls are to be believed, pushing Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak out of office; while France appears on the cusp of a strong surge of the far right party, which would handcuff centrist President Emmanuel Macron for the rest of his term and could set off serious social conflict.
This wide divergence can be explained by different political cycles. There was an interesting perspective recently in Le Figaro, by Michel Barnier, the European Union’s French-born negotiator for Brexit: “Ultimately,” he wrote, “aren’t (the British) just eight years ahead of us?” Explanation: UK voters are now moving to the left to try to correct the colossal mistake they made in 2015 by voting for Brexit, while France is giving in to the sirens of populism for the first time.
The Brexit fail
Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron organized a referendum on the UK’s exit from the EU, confident of victory. A demagogic campaign, riddled with misinformation, produced the opposite result. The result was years of poisonous negotiations, incompetent prime ministers, divisions and a plummeting economy.
Today, the Labour Party, after a long period in the wilderness due to political radicalism, is set to move back in power with a less divisive program and a more consensual leader, Keir Starmer. It won’t bring the UK back to Europe, but it should reestablish ties and heal some wounds.
On the other hand, France could have its “Brexit moment“, about to plunge into the unknown, uncharted waters, with unpredictable consequences for the country, for its citizens, and for Europe.
The “Brexit moment” was the certainty of a majority of British people that their country, freed from the grip of Brussels, would regain its former greatness. But the opposite has happened so far: living standards have fallen and British influence has waned.
A soft Frexit?
Michel Barnier recalls in his article Marine Le Pen’s phrase on the evening of the Brexit victory: “We are electrified by the British who have seized this extraordinary opportunity to escape servitude.” Today, obviously, faced with the failure of the Brexit reality, her National Rally party is not proposing Frexit; but has it changed its mind? And won’t its policy automatically lead to a weakening of Europe? The question at least deserves to be asked.
The former European negotiator calls for “French lessons from Brexit,” but that seems impossible in a very specific, and very nationally charged, political moment.
On July 18, the new British Prime Minister, almost certainly Keir Starmer, will welcome to the UK the Third Summit of the European Political Community, a continental structure proposed by Emmanuel Macron two years ago. For the British, it will largely turn the page on Brexit; where the French will stand, it’s anybody’s guess.
