-Analysis-
PARIS — The headwinds are strong indeed. France, like other European countries, is feeling the combined effects of several negative factors: the constant decline in the continent’s weight in economic and demographic terms; the exhaustion of the liberal and social democratic model that shaped post-war Europe; and finally, the return of an era of open power showdowns, where the European Union had been built on the rejection of war and defense of rule of law.
The latest crisis is the major one with Algeria, its counterpart in the Mediterranean, which erupted after France’s decision in October to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara; but the roots of this conflict are much deeper.
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The latest episode is Algeria’s refusal to accept an Algerian “influencer” expelled from France, which sparked a storm of reactions. But the bilateral relationship has been stalled for some time now: nothing moves, neither in the economy nor in politics, and even in terms of security, there are no more exchanges of information on anti-terrorism operations. It’s as if the Algerian leaders literally want to expel the former colonial power from the country.
Tension between France and Algeria
There are many calls in the French political class to “punish” Algeria. But how can France sever ties with a country to which around 10% of the French population has a historical connection? Why not try to connect with Algeria’s young population, which does not follow the country’s aging leadership.
This is part of a move within French-speaking Africa to embrace a so-called “sovereigntist” wave, ending French military presence; even Chad, which seemed protected. Having failed to foresee this shift, France is now on the defensive, burdened by a colonial past that still resonates, even among young people who never experienced it.
France has more opportunities to act today with non-French-speaking countries like Nigeria, but it must find ways to restart dialogue on new foundations with the world that shares its language. If Africa is the continent of the future, France would be cutting itself off by staying on the sidelines.
Europe as doormat
As for the EU, there is France in Europe, and Europe in the world. France remains a major power among the 27 nations of the European Union, and it has championed some of the themes that are even more relevant today, such as European sovereignty. But we cannot deny that it is durably weakened externally, particularly in Brussels, by its internal political crisis.
But France is also affected by Europe’s weakness in the new international context created in 2022 by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and the power dynamics represented by the Donald Trump-Elon Musk tandem that is set to take power.
Dependent on the United States for its security, Europe risks lacking the ability to resist the American juggernaut. “Europe was a doormat” in the face of the statements from both Trump and Musk last week. That was a comment by former Minister for European Affairs, Clément Beaune.
Charting a path for the future in such a context should be at the top of the national debate agenda in France and across Europe. But inside the political bubble, one sometimes forgets to look out the window at the world that is burning.
