-Analysis-
PARIS — According to a message circulating this week, the numbers at French military bases in Africa will be significantly reduced: 300 men in Chad where there are currently 1,000, about 100 in Côte d’Ivoire compared to the 900 a few months ago, 100 in Dakar compared to the 350 today. Only the base in the small nation of Djibouti will not take part in this restructuring, remaining with its 1,500 men, due to the base being oriented towards the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, making it particularly strategic in this moment.
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There was a time, not so long ago, when French troops in West and Central Africa numbered in the thousands, engaged in recent years in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, and (without saying it out loud) served as shields for African regimes linked to France. It’s a long history marked with notable military achievements, such as the Foreign Legion in Kolwezi in 1978 in eastern Zaire at the time, or the wars in Chad or Cameroon.
It’s over: Africa has changed, and it no longer wants this French presence.
An end to an unwanted era
The era has changed. Unlike other colonial powers, Charles de Gaulle’s France left without really leaving in 1960. It set up “Françafrique,” a system of influence that preserved the interests of France and its African allies.
The French army was the life insurance for regimes that were far from democratic.
I knew a Francophone Africa where French representatives had complete control even of whether it would rain or be clear skies, like the French colonel, head of the presidential guard in the Central African Republic in the 1980s, who had more power than any minister. The French army was the life insurance for regimes that were far from democratic.
This era has largely ended a long time ago, but it has been very difficult to completely put a close to it. Even Emmanuel Macron, who had the intuition that it was necessary to turn the page, didn’t actually do so, especially due to the security situation in the Sahel.
Having failed to leave in time, France was chased from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, leading to the current reassessment decided by the French president.
Russian mercenaries step in
France’s role is evolving, and that is normal. There is no nostalgia for the Françafrique era: it was marked by unwanted meddling and plenty of abuses. The challenge now is to define its new role in an Africa that demands more sovereignty —even if replacing French troops in Mali with Russian mercenaries cannot really be considered progress.
The political uncertainties in France complicate the exercise.
The case study is Senegal, one of West Africa’s jewels, which has just elected a team inspired by Pan-African ideas. The strongman of the new power, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, has criticized the French military presence, and he wants to cut dependency on Paris without completely breaking it.
The new chapter remains to be defined, but who will write it? The political uncertainties in France complicate the exercise: African policy is one of the indirect stakes of the upcoming legislative elections that Macron called this month.