-Analysis-
PARIS — The June 2024 European elections cannot be compared with the upcoming U.S. elections on Nov. 5. And yet, couldn’t we consider the latter as the second round of the former?
Does the expected victory of the far right in Europe pave the way for Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. in five months? Or will the rejection by a majority of Americans of a convicted former president running for office — a first in U.S. history — force us to see the outcome of the European elections with a little more perspective?
It is, of course, necessary to wait. But the precedent of 2016 and its subsequent developments should lead us to be cautious.
On June 23, 2016, a majority of Britons (mainly the English) voted “no” to the European Union. As if encouraged by the boldness of the voters of the not-so-United Kingdom on that occasion, a very narrow majority of American electoral college members would, to everyone’s surprise (including the candidate himself), bring Donald Trump to the White House.
Eight years later, in 2024, a majority of Britons regret their 2016 choice — a leap into the unknown that failed to fulfill its promises and only resulted in the gradual and costly isolation of the United Kingdom, economically and financially. The illusion of creating a “Singapore-on-Thames” has proven to be meaningless. To the point that on July 4, the British are likely to bring to power a center-left Labour majority, perfectly moderate and reasonable.
Through a policy of small steps, the primary ambition of the new majority in power will be to bring the U.K. closer to the European Union, thus potentially providing a model for the future gradual integration of Ukraine into the EU.
Uncertainty in the United States
In the United States, it is much more difficult to predict what will happen on Nov. 5: a repeat of 2016 or 2020?
Even though a majority of economic and financial elites in France seem convinced that a Trump victory appears most likely (and ultimately might not be so catastrophic, the man is unpredictable but not an ideologue, right?) — nothing, absolutely nothing, is certain yet. So many unpredictable developments can occur over the course of five months.
On both sides of the Atlantic, the vote or non-vote of the youth can play a decisive role.
Certainty in Europe, uncertainty in the United States: one thing is clear, on both sides of the Atlantic, the vote or non-vote of the youth can play a decisive role. A large number of them are now voting for the far right in Europe.
At a time when climate change is a more serious and immediate threat than ever, it seems as if a significant portion of young white voters are prioritizing their fear of the so-called “Great Replacement” over their legitimate fear of the survival of the planet.
The role of the youth
France is an almost caricature-like example of this tipping effect. The far right, through its two main parties (RN and Reconquête), was dabbling with around 40% of the electorate in the polls before the European elections. As for the Green Party (les Écologistes), their decline has been very noticeable since 2019.
How do we explain this dramatic reversal? Why does nostalgia for an imaginary past prevail over the fear for the future of the planet?
Some emphasize the negative effect of the COVID years and the self-withdrawal it created, which in itself fostered the development of a dark narcissism (amplified in its effects by the negative role of social media).
From France to Germany (where the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party, unlike the RN, has chosen not to advance in disguise), passing through Italy and Spain, not to mention the Netherlands and Belgium, the alignment of young people with the far right concerns and alarms us.
I was fortunate enough to witness firsthand the commemorations of the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy last week. Young people played a very important role in the staging of the events. They sang, they danced, celebrating the greatness of the still-living veterans and that of the European construction, made possible by Franco-German reconciliation.
They were not yet of voting age. When they are, will they be able to vote for the far right after participating in these positive, respectful, and humanistic gatherings? It may be just a drop in the ocean, but a significant one.
Concern but not despair
In the United States, it’s less the concern about young people voting for a hard right than their abstention that would make it difficult for the candidate of reason and decency, Joe Biden, to win. The courageous Middle East policy adopted by the current occupant of the White House has alienated the younger and more radical elements of the American left.
It is important to be concerned but not to despair.
But what will happen in five months if the war in Gaza ceases to dominate the news after the signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement? It’s not Joe Biden who invited Benjamin Netanyahu to speak on July 24, before the joint chambers of Congress, but the head of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
From this overview of the European and American elections, a lesson emerges. It is important to be concerned but not to despair. The strong surge of the far right in France does not mean that history has been written and that a new tragic cycle is unfolding before us.
Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet prevailed in Ukraine, populism is not on the verge of dominating on both sides of the Atlantic.
For sure, Europe risks being more divided than it has ever been since the creation of the European Union after this election.
But it is also true that we cannot ignore the truth. Whether it advances in disguise or not, the extreme right remains everywhere and in all its forms (French, German, and even Italian), what it has always been — a deadly danger to democracy in the long run. Programmed uncertainty, as well as systematic unpredictability, are not good for economic stability.