–Analysis–
PARIS — The leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) are gathering late Monday in Brussels for a first round of discussions about the “top jobs,” the main positions of the EU: the presidents of the Commission, the Council, the Parliament, and the High Commissioner in charge of international relations. Barring major surprises, the majority will remain the same, composed of the European People’s Party (EPP) on the right, the socialists, and the liberals.
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The socialist party candidates, including the French, are associated with the right at the European level but have formed a left-wing alliance for the legislative elections in France. This is part of the culture of compromise at the heart of European construction and so absent from the French political scene. We are used to it, except when the crisis erupts at the national level.
We didn’t talk much about Europe during the European election campaign, so we’re not going to bring it up in a national election. The issues lie elsewhere. But not talking about it does not mean it doesn’t play an important role.
Flirting with Putin
Without saying it out loud, most of France’s partners have several catastrophic scenarios in mind.
The first is a victory of the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) — which has long flirted with “Frexit” or exiting the eurozone — a scenario that nobody knows quite to expect from. What is for sure is that an RN government in France represents bad news for Ukraine due to its ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But the other scenario that frightens European partners the most is that of a political deadlock — the risk of paralysis or, worse, chaos in one of the key EU countries. In any case, it is one of Europe’s engines that will stall at the worst possible moment.
A decisive moment in EU history
The EU is at a decisive moment in its history — between the war in Ukraine and a possible victory of Donald Trump, between technological transformation and the redefinition of global power dynamics. A French eclipse would be a definite handicap to face all these challenges, which also include defense, enlargement, or reforming the functioning of the Union with 35 members.
Macron’s dissolution is being compared to David Cameron’s decision to call the Brexit referendum in 2015:
France’s partners realize they cannot influence the debate in France in any way. Our country has accustomed them to its nervous breakdowns, and its volcanic eruptions where others prefer smooth evolutions.
Two months ago, President Emmanuel Macron warned in an interview with The Economist magazine that Europe was facing a “mortal danger.” It would be paradoxical if he himself precipitated the danger he foresaw with his hasty parliament dissolution.
A good connoisseur of France compared this dissolution last week to David Cameron’s decision to call the Brexit referendum in 2015: the British Prime Minister was convinced he would win, but he plunged the United Kingdom into a lasting crisis.
