-OpEd-
CAIRO — The news was not surprising: Following calls for “Friday of Dignity” protests on July 12, Egyptian authorities arrested more than 70 people and jailed them on charges of joining a terrorist group to achieve its goals, disseminating false news and misusing social media platforms.
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Over the years, calls for protest in Egypt have repeatedly failed. Yet security services continue to preemptively crackdown, arresting hundreds as a precautionary measure.
Perhaps the organizers of this latest “revolution” should have checked the weather forecast; the heat wave Egypt has been experiencing for the past six weeks reached a peak of 107°F (41.6°C) in Cairo on July 12. Of course, no one would take to the street and protest in that kind of heat — even amid chronic power outages and skyrocketing prices.
Egyptians have historically preferred to express their anger in the winter, as was the case in January 2011, January 1977 and the 1919 revolution, which broke out in March.
Or maybe the organizers should have thought about what is on the minds of Egyptian people nowadays. Egyptians are experts in employing promotional campaigns and hashtags on social media, which has become a major source of information that is even threatening traditional media.
Weather and social media
A quick review of social media trends in Egypt would have quickly revealed that the general mood is not a revolutionary one — despite widespread anger and exhaustion. Rather, the topics trending on social media these days are:
• Leaked videos of blogger Hadeer Abdel Razik, which mobilized conservatives and morality advocates against her.
• Cyclist Shahd Saeed’s exclusion from the upcoming Paris Olympics, after a video showed her deliberately pushing another cyclist during a national race in April.
• Soccer player Ahmed Refaat’s death three months after he collapsed in the field during an official Egyptian League game. His death stirred controversy and exposed allegations of corruption within the soccer community. It prompted the Sports Ministry to open an investigation into the circumstances of his death.
• Accusations that the new education minister’s university degrees are fake.
In terms of international events, Egyptians’ comments on the Israel-Hamas war are limited to prayers for Palestinians in Gaza and calls for revenge against Israel and the U.S.
Failing to learn
Social media is more focused on the topics mentioned above than on efforts to push the Egyptian government to address important public demands such as fighting inflation, improving education and health conditions, reviewing spending priorities, and demanding more public freedoms.
You need to understand what is on the minds of Egyptians.
Yet the government’s response shows that there are officials who are willing to listen and interact with the people’s desires. In some cases the government reviewed or delayed its decisions, related for example to price hikes and power outages, after assessing the people’s mounting outrage.
Of course there is no or little response to the most important issues, such as reviewing spending priorities or addressing the scandal surrounding the Minister of Education.
Yet no one has learned from the lessons of the recent past. Calls for protests and revolution always fail, but those behind them never stop despite government crackdowns and arrests. They continue to fail to understand what is on the minds of Egyptians and to expect support for their suspicious calls for “revolution”, without setting specific goals or alternatives other than expressing anger and discontent.
This tactic, which is often supported by the Muslim Brotherhood from their exile, has proven its repeated failure, and has only led to tightening the security grip and reducing the chances of political reform, under the pretext that calls for chaos and unrest have not ceased.
