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Geopolitics

Bolsonaro's Generals: Preparing For A Capitol Hill Moment?

With the sudden departure of Brazil's top generals, Jair Bolsonaro’s government may be weakened. But it may also be setting up the ultimate showdown for the country's democracy ahead of next year's election.

Bolsonaro in Brasilia on March 31
Bolsonaro in Brasilia on March 31
Alessio Perrone

In the last few days, as Brazil's COVID-19 daily death toll reached new heights — with 3,950 on Wednesday — President Jair Bolsonaro sacked his defense minister. Then, after a reportedly tense meeting, the heads of the Brazilian army, navy and air force resigned out of disagreements with the president, who swiftly replaced them with more loyal officials.

The sackings are yet to be fully explained, but the Brazilian press speculated that Bolsonaro tried to involve the military apparatus in an "authoritarian project."

In the Brazilian press, most commentators took the mass firings (a first in Brazilian history) as a sign of weakness of the dictatorship-apologist, Trump-loving president. "Bolsonaro has long tried to turn the armed forces into militias at his service," wrote the Estado de São Paulo.

Anti-Bolsonaro protest in Sao Paulo on March 31 — Photo: Roberto Casimiro/Fotoarena/ZUMA

It's true that as a former army officer himself, the 66-year-old president has stuffed his cabinet with generals, defended the legacy of the military dictatorship in the country, including its use of torture, and threatened coups several times. And yet, the latest news showed that large sections of the military do not support him. "Obviously, the officials chose the Constitution," the Sao Paulo daily said.

But this take may be optimistic. Just last month, a court allowed Bolsonaro's nemesis, the former left-leaning president Lula, to run in Brazil's next election in 2022, where he would be Bolsonaro's main opponent.

Many in Brazil believe Lula to be the favorite — and yet doubt that Bolsonaro would concede. Instead, as Donald Trump did in the U.S., he might challenge the election results and rally his supporters against Brazilian institutions.

It's early to tell if all this will come true. But if Brazil does go through a "Capitol Hill moment" next year — with president loyals now in charge of the army — Bolsonaro might succeed where Trump failed.

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Economy

Lex Tusk? How Poland’s Controversial "Russian Influence" Law Will Subvert Democracy

The new “lex Tusk” includes language about companies and their management. But is this likely to be a fair investigation into breaking sanctions on Russia, or a political witch-hunt in the business sphere?

Photo of President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda

Polish President Andrzej Duda

Piotr Miaczynski, Leszek Kostrzewski

-Analysis-

WARSAW — Poland’s new Commission for investigating Russian influence, which President Andrzej Duda signed into law on Monday, will be able to summon representatives of any company for inquiry. It has sparked a major controversy in Polish politics, as political opponents of the government warn that the Commission has been given near absolute power to investigate and punish any citizen, business or organization.

And opposition politicians are expected to be high on the list of would-be suspects, starting with Donald Tusk, who is challenging the ruling PiS government to return to the presidency next fall. For that reason, it has been sardonically dubbed: Lex Tusk.

University of Warsaw law professor Michal Romanowski notes that the interests of any firm can be considered favorable to Russia. “These are instruments which the likes of Putin and Orban would not be ashamed of," Romanowski said.

The law on the Commission for examining Russian influences has "atomic" prerogatives sewn into it. Nine members of the Commission with the rank of secretary of state will be able to summon virtually anyone, with the powers of severe punishment.

Under the new law, these Commissioners will become arbiters of nearly absolute power, and will be able to use the resources of nearly any organ of the state, including the secret services, in order to demand access to every available document. They will be able to prosecute people for acts which were not prohibited at the time they were committed.

Their prerogatives are broader than that of the President or the Prime Minister, wider than those of any court. And there is virtually no oversight over their actions.

Nobody can feel safe. This includes companies, their management, lawyers, journalists, and trade unionists.

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