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Geopolitics

As US-Pakistan Tensions Rise, China Looks Set To Gain

Osama bin Laden’s death has deepened tensions between Islamabad and Washington. Will Pakistan fall into China's arms?

Hillary Clinton and Nawaz Sharif, leader of the opposition in Pakistan
Hillary Clinton and Nawaz Sharif, leader of the opposition in Pakistan
Frédéric Bobin

Could China be the country that benefits most from Osama bin Laden's death in Pakistan? As tensions between Islamabad and Washington reach new heights over the killing of al Qaeda's former leader, Pakistan has discretely begun looking to China in its hope to minimize the impact of a potentially major crisis in relations with the US.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani addressed his Parliament on Monday on the bin Laden raid. His speech disclosed little new information, but underlined the diplomatic strategy that Islamabad intends to adopt in order to free itself from America's embrace. Mr Gilani bent over backwards in his attempt to praise China, describing it as "a source of inspiration for the Pakistani people".

Politicians and the public are showing increasing demand for a looser relationship between Islamabad and the US, whose attitude is considered ungrateful, given Pakistan's "sacrifices' for the fight against terrorism. Nawaz Sharif, leader of the opposition and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), has called for the government to reconsider its relations with Washington after its "violation of Pakistan's national sovereignty," as he described the American intervention in Abbottabad.

In Pakistan's press, calls are multiplying for the country to opt for the China alternative. In an article entitled "Time to distinguish between friends and foes', The Nation daily, which is close to the army, wrote on May 6: "It is about time that the government started distancing itself from the so-called friend, the US. It should get closer to time-tested China."

Analysts in Islamabad are convinced that bin Laden's death will mark a turning point in Pakistan's diplomacy. "It is highly probable that Pakistan will get closer to China and Russia too," says Imtiaz Gul, Director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad. "Pakistanis are now asking themselves what the country has gained from our alliance with the United States. The result is a whole array of condemnations and a total lack of confidence."

Iftikhar Murshid, a former diplomat, now Editor-in-chief of the magazine Criterion Quarterly, puts the announced turnaround in perspective. "The relation between Pakistan and China is already incredibly profound," he says, noting that "it could, of course, become even more so. The perception of people here is that China is a reliable partner who has never let Pakistan down. But it goes without saying that we would never put all our eggs into the same basket."

It did not take long for China to understand the full benefits of the confidence crisis between Pakistan and the United States. While suddenly finding itself the object of general suspicion in most Western countries, Islamabad received kind words from Beijing. On May 6, China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman urged the international community to show "more comprehension and support" to Pakistan, also recalling that "national sovereignty should be respected", an implicit criticism of the American raid. The official Chinese press has done the same, qualifying any doubts on Pakistan's anti-terrorist commitment as "unjust".

Until now, Islamabad had managed to strike a balance between its partnership with the US and its long-lasting friendship with China. Relations with Washington have been strained at times, especially because of Pakistani nuclear ambitions. In the aftermath of 9/11, the "war on terror" brought the two countries together as never before. Pakistan has skillfully cashed in on its "borderline state" status (as during the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan), benefiting, according to certain critics, from "strategic rent."

In the period from 2002 to 2011, the U.S. has spent nearly $20 billion on aid for Pakistan, three quarters of which was in the form of security costs. This help is now being questioned by some members of Congress who think that Washington has received very little in return.

China has considerably increased its presence in Pakistan over the last decade. It has built the Gwadar port in Baluchistan, for example, securing Chinese access to energy supplies via the Arabian Sea. It has also reinforced its civil nuclear cooperation with Pakistan to counterbalance closer relations between the Unites States and India. China's role in Pakistan looks set to grow, reshaping the geostrategic balance in Southern Asia.

Read the original article in French.

Photo - america.gov

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Alexandroupoli, How The Ukraine War Made This Sleepy Greek Port A Geopolitical Hub

Once neglected, this small port in Thrace, northeastern Greece, has become a strategic hub for transporting men and arms to the shores of the Black Sea. Propelled by ambitious infrastructure and gas projects, the region dreams of becoming an alternative to the Bosphorus strait.

Alexandroupoli, How The Ukraine War Made This Sleepy Greek Port A Geopolitical Hub

The U.S. military processing military equipment in the port of Alexandroupoli.

Basile Dekonink

ALEXANDROUPOLI — Looks like there's a traffic jam in the port of Alexandroupoli.

Lined up in tight rows on the quay reserved for military activities, hundreds of vehicles — mostly light armored vehicles — are piled up under the sun. Moored at the pier, the "USNS Brittin," an impressive 290-meter roll-off cargo ship flying the flag of the U.S. Navy, is about to set sail. But what is all this gear doing in this remote corner of the sea in Thrace, in the far northeast of Greece?

Of all the geopolitical upheavals caused by the Russian offensive of Feb. 24 2022, Alexandroupoli is perhaps the most surprising. Once isolated and neglected, this modest port in the Eastern Mediterranean, mainly known for its maritime connection to the nearby island of Samothrace, is being revived.

Diplomats of all kinds are flocking there, investors are pouring in, and above all, military ships are arriving at increasingly regular intervals. The capital of the province of Evros has become, in the midst of the war in Ukraine, a hub for transporting arms and men to the shores of the Black Sea.

“If you look north from Alexandroupoli, along the Evros River, you can see a corridor. A corridor for trade, for the transport of goods and people to the heart of the Balkans and, a little further, to Ukraine," explains the port's CEO, Konstantinos Chatzikonstantinou, from his office right on the docks. According to him, the sudden interest in this small town of 70,000 inhabitants is explained by "geography, geography, and… geography.”

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