-Analysis-
PARIS — To understand what is at stake between Israel and Iran, we must also look at the Arab countries of the Middle East. For the first time, on Saturday, several of them (openly or more discreetly) took part in defending Israel against Iran.
This is the result of several years of political, economic and military contacts encouraged by the United States. Saturday was their first real test. This will weigh heavily in the Middle East equation in the future, and it is already a factor in Israel‘s hesitation over whether to retaliate to Iranian missile and drone attacks.
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Jordan, for example, took part in the collective action during the Iranian attack. Its aircraft destroyed up to 20% of the missiles launched by Tehran. And U.S., UK, and Israeli aircraft intercepted some of the Iranian drones and missiles in Jordanian skies. Officially, Jordan simply defended its airspace. In fact, the Hashemite kingdom — of which the queen and part of the population are Palestinian — defended Israel’s security.
And it’s not the only country.
An unprecedented development
Citing American sources, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates provided intelligence to the U.S. and, in effect, took part in Israel’s defense. They shared radar and intelligence information during those critical few hours.
That is unprecedented. But nothing was improvised about the development, which comes as the Israeli army continues its ruthless war in Gaza — condemned by these countries.
To understand this, we need to go back to the first contacts that led to the Abraham Agreements, which link Israel to several Arab countries, such as the UAE and Bahrain. Security ties have been established, including with Saudi Arabia, which has not yet signed with Israel.
What’s next?
In March 2022, U.S. Gen. Frank McKenzie organized a meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt between the Israeli Army Chief of Staff and Arab representatives, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The aim was to coordinate their air defences in the face of the Iranian threat.
It wasn’t about a formal alliance, nor a Middle Eastern NATO as has sometimes been said — nobody’s ready for that — but about creating networks, learning to work together, systems compatibility. The first test took place on Saturday, and it worked.
A direct Israeli attack on Iran would ruin the solidarity reflex that has emerged in recent days.
What’s next? That’s not a simple equation. No Arab country is prepared to accept a direct Israeli attack on Iran. That would ruin the solidarity reflex that has emerged in recent days thanks to the U.S. Nor are any of them prepared, whatever their motives, to turn a blind eye to the carnage in Gaza.
The ball is therefore in Israel’s court: a choice between a harshly imposed deterrent, but in relative isolation and a protracted war; or a regional political process, but with the Palestinian question as an inevitable part of the equation. Option 1 seems to be the obvious choice for post-Oct. 7 Israel.
