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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Why Negotiating With Russia Would Be A Disaster For Ukraine — And The World

A month into Ukraine’s counteroffensive, claims that it has failed are wildly premature. Even more troubling are the steady whispers that Kyiv must sit down with Russia to negotiate. But it’s clearer than ever that only complete Ukrainian victory can bring lasting peace.

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Economy Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Prigozhin’s Profit Model: How Wagner Cashes In On The Non-Stop Business Of War

The Wagner mercenaries, who came to the world’s attention for their involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and more recently in the coup attempt, have been operating in Africa and elsewhere for years with a profitable formula to cash in on ongoing conflict.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Israel-Palestine, The Eternal Proof That Violence Is The Absence Of Politics

Israel’s military operation in Jenin is the latest escalation of bloodshed. Once again, the language of violence has prevailed because there is no political solution on the horizon.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

What Happens If Ukraine Loses? That’s The Real “Cost Question” For The West

While the Ukrainian counteroffensive is mainly happening on the Southern and Eastern fronts, the struggle for Ukraine’s future is also being waged on the “Western front,” where more aid is desperately needed. Here, Kyiv needs to convince even the most resistant allies that a Ukrainian defeat would leave the European Union and the U.S. much weaker on the global stage.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Zaporizhzhya, Inside Job: Russia’s Most Likely Nuclear Weapon Isn’t A Missile

Ukraine is warning about a possible terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which Moscow’s military has occupied since the early days of the invasion. The U.S. Senate warns that, in that case, NATO is ready to enter the war.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Any Attempt At Ukraine Peace Is A Non-Starter Right Now

African leaders traveled to both Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a potential “peace plan” for the war in Ukraine. Predictably the envoys failed, and others will likely meet the same fate as Ukraine’s counteroffensive kicks into gear and Putin keeps digging in.

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Geopolitics War in Ukraine

Pacifism Is So ’80s! Why Military Budgets Are Exploding, Everywhere

Military spending has increased dramatically worldwide, driven by war in Ukraine and Chinese-Tawian tensions. With $2.24 trillion spent globally in 2022, the amount looks likely to continue to increase.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

A How-To Guide To Make Sense Of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

Don’t believe each new twist, minute-by-minute, as information is a weapon that both sides handle carefully. But there are ways to begin to see how this possibly decisive battle will turn out.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Ukraine War, A Perfect Case Of The Limits Of The UN

Global politics have gotten in the way of humanitarian aid when it comes to the flooding in Ukraine. Zelensky points the finger towards a deep, structural UN shortcoming.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

“Putin Has Lost The Power” – ​The Zelensky Die Welt Interview

In an exclusive interview with German daily Die Welt, Volodymyr Zelensky comments on the power struggles inside the Russian government. At the same time, he accuses Russia of firing on rescue workers after the dam explosion, and offers harsh criticism for the UN and the Red Cross.

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In The News

How The Dam Destruction Will Impact Ukraine’s Counteroffensive — And What That Tells Us

When both sides of a conflict blame each other for something as important as the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, there’s only one way to understand what’s going on: find out who benefits from the crime.

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In The News

Nova Kakhovka Attack — Dams Are A Favorite Target Of War

Stunning images of the attack of Nova Kakhovka dam, which had been described as a strategically important target, serve as a reminder that military forces in past wars have set off similar disasters to take out dams’ power.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

The Most Likely Result Of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive? Negotiations

As we wait for Ukraine’s looming counteroffensive, analysts are already looking ahead and asking what will happen after this decisive summer. After brutal battles, a general weariness risks setting in, that could push Ukraine to accept a ceasefire.

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Geopolitics

Iran, The Day After: Here’s What Could Happen If The Ayatollahs Fall

Finding themselves amid a range of strategic, economic and regional interests, Iranians in a post-regime future will have to deftly maneuver their country toward a peaceful, constitutional state. Bahram Farrokhi writes about the good, the bad and the worst-case scenarios.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

The Four Ways Russians Clear Their Conscience About Ukraine

A new report has done a deep dive into the support (or lack of opposition) of ordinary Russians for the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Independent Russian media outlet Important Stories breaks down the findings, which don’t necessarily follow the rationale one might imagine.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Can South Africa Be An Honest Broker For Peace In Ukraine?

After Beijing’s dubious push to lead negotiations on settling the war in Ukraine, now it’s South Africa’s turn. But its “ambiguous” neutrality on the war — and reports of secret weapons sales to Russia — raise serious skepticism in Kyiv and the West.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

What Will Justice For Ukraine Look Like? The Nazi Demise Offers A Clue

Russia has just celebrated its Victory Day over Nazism. It’s a good time to reflect on what retribution means, and how it’s not always black and white.

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In The News

Middle East, Realpolitik: Inside Assad’s Return To The World Stage

The Arab League has readmitted Syria, ending the regime’s ten-year isolation. This is a defeat for the West — and an admission by the Arab states that there is no way around Assad.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Why Russia Is Now Betting On A Long War In Ukraine

After its initial blitzkrieg failed, and with Ukraine gearing up for a counteroffensive, Russia sees its best hope in holding out for a protracted conflict. Kyiv, instead, is trying to convince its Western allies that achieving victory as soon as possible is the only path forward.

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Russia-Ukraine War

How A Private UK Market Helps Get Used Tanks To Ukraine’s Frontlines

Even as Ukraine’s Western allies are sending much needed military hardware, there is an unofficial market for used equipment — from armored vehicles to drones and satellites — that has been vital for Kyiv. But how do these second-hand goods make it from Britain to the front?

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In The News

Iconic Mariupol Maternity Photograph Wins World Press Photo Award

It was one of the most striking photographs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a tragic postscript. A year later, it has been chosen as World Press Photo of the Year award.

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Geopolitics

Kim Family Dynamics: We Overlook North Korea At Our Peril

What should the world make of Kim Jong-un, his young daughter Ju Ae in tow, flexing North Korea’s military hardware? Nothing good, though the scenario that it is mostly just a flex is still the most likely.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Life Again, With “Interruptions”: Springtime In Liberated Ukraine

In the parts of eastern Ukraine liberated by Ukrainian forces’ lightning counteroffensive six months ago life is bittersweet, including a constant lack of electricity and water — and the constant risk of shelling.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Is Russia’s Defense Ministry Using Bakhmut To Eliminate The Wagner Group?

Even as Ukraine struggles to hold onto the last remaining bits of the eastern city, military experts say the official Russian military apparatus may have decided to rid itself of the Wagner mercenaries and bury them all in Bakhmut.

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In The News

China-Taiwan: Between Election Maneuvering And Dress Rehearsals For War

The Chinese military’s encirclement of Taiwan is above all a political move, not a tactical one. War is unlikely for now: Beijing still has other cards to play in the crisis. But if these fail, anything is possible.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Hard Evidence Links Ukraine War Damage To Grain Shortages Around The World

Reporting from agricultural centers in eastern Ukraine confirms a landmark study: Extensive wartime damage to the country’s crucial agricultural sector risks raising hunger in places that have counted on Ukrainian grain.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why Putin Hasn’t Launched The Second Mobilization His Army So Desperately Needs

Few believe the Russian government claims that it can recruit 400,000 new troops as volunteers, even with cash bonuses. But the alternative, a nationwide draft, may be too high a risk for Vladimir Putin.

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In The News

Maryinka As Memory: How A City In Ukraine Has Been Blown Out Of Existence

Citizens of the now destroyed Ukrainian city of Maryinka are left struggling to remember what their town used to look like.

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In The News

Drones, Tablets, Cigarettes: How Ukraine’s Reconnaissance Warriors Pinpoint The Enemy

Near the embattled city of Vuhledar, Ukrainian artillery reconnaissance units detect enemy positions. They work with drones, tablets and satellite internet — and they are often the last line of defense from a Russian onslaught.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Bakhmut Diary: Death And Life From Inside Ukraine’s 243rd Battalion

A 39-year-old fighter codenamed “Alaska,” a member of the Ukrainian Battalion 243, has decided to share his story in the battles of Bakhmut and other key frontline positions in eastern Ukraine over the past six months.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Hating Russians, Trusting Ourselves: The Hard Questions For Post-War Ukraine

A year after Russia’s invasion of her homeland, Ukrainian writer Anna Akage looks back at recent history, but, above all, forward to a future where her nation must not only win the war, but not lose the victory.

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In The News

Defining Victory In Ukraine: The Real Meaning Of Macron’s “Not Crushing” Russia

French President Emmanuel Macron turned heads by saying that his objective was to defeat Russia, without “crushing” it. This diverges with the objectives of Ukraine and other allies. It’s a question that will ultimately be answered on the battlefield.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Why It’s Now Almost Impossible For Ukraine To Win The War

It’s hard to admit, but every day, the chance of a Ukrainian victory moves further away. Kyiv is running out of troops and equipment. The enemy is better prepared and has significant reinforcements at its disposal. It’s no surprise, then, that the talk among Western diplomats is of a truce.

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Society

War In The Age Of Tik Tok, A Parental Guide To Your Child’s Mental Health

Many children are struggling with what feels like a constant state of crisis. Parents are right to be concerned, but they should not try to shield kids. Instead, it’s all about communication.

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In The News Russia-Ukraine War

Putin In Belarus: Is Lukashenko Ready To Enter The Ukraine War?

Five days after Minsk’s troops began amassing at the Belarus-Ukraine border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for an impromptu summit with Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus’ strongman is increasingly seen as no longer having the option to say No to entering Putin’s war against Ukraine.

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In The News

No Putin, No Russia? Why Losing The War Wouldn’t Destroy The Russian Federation

Predictions about the collapse of Russia are as old as the country itself. Yet a consistent centralization of power has gone on for decades, weakening Russia’s territories and republics. The war in Ukraine changes everything and nothing.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Why Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Are Now More Impossible Than Ever

The reconquest of Kherson seemed like a turning point in the Ukraine war. But while Kyiv and the West can see it as an encouraging sign for the long-term fate of the war, it makes negotiations a veritable non-starter now. A cold, hard analysis from French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Swan Lake In Kherson? Why Russia’s Future Is Looking So Dark

Ukrainians, Russians and much of the rest of the world are still trying to make sense of Moscow’s decision last week to abandon the southern city of Kherson. Do not, for certain, underestimate the significance.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Belarus To Kazakhstan: Russia’s Weakness Is A Powder Keg In Ex-Soviet Lands

Russia has always claimed to be a kind of sheriff on the territory of the former USSR, a zone the country considers as its “privileged interests.” Now it has lost both strength and authority in the war with Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Here Are Four Ways Putin Could Turn The Tide In Ukraine

Ukraine’s recent successes on the battlefield have put pressure on Vladimir Putin, who has launched what appear to be desperate attacks on civilians and infrastructure in response. Experts warn that it is dangerous to believe that Russia is bound to fail.

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