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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

The Science Of Designing A Sanctions Model That Really Hurts Moscow

On paper, the scale of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine is unprecedented. But opinion on the impact of sanctions remains divided in the absence of a reliable scientific foundation. A new study by Bank of Canada offers a way out.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

What Does Prigozhin’s Death Mean For Russia’s Ambitions In Africa?

Russia has entered the race for influence in Africa over the past decade, largely on the shoulders of the Wagner Group and its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. What happens now is unclear, though Vladimir Putin won’t want to cede any ground to other world powers in the race for influence on the continent.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

How The Greek Shipping Industry Is Cashing In On Putin’s War

Moscow relies on international shipping companies to ship its oil, especially tankers flying the Greek flag. To protect its lucrative business, Athens is resisting tougher sanctions — and thus playing right into Vladimir Putin’s hands.

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Geopolitics

The Tug-Of-War Between Niger’s New Junta And The World Has Begun

Just days after the military seized power in Niger last week, the new junta has already been the target of sanctions by Brussels and Washington. What that means for the 1,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in Niger, among other things, remains unclear.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

“Stay Or Go” — The Blunt Message In Russia’s State Takeover Of Danone And Carlsberg

The French dairy group Danone and Denmark’s Carlsberg brewer were in talks with buyers to limit their financial losses in Russia. But the Kremlin’s sudden “temporary” takeover of the two companies Sunday night (involving the seizure of Danone by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s “favorite” nephew) may in fact be a sign that business is over once and for all for Western subsidiaries that have pulled out since the war began.

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Economy

A BRICS Common Currency? The New Plans To Challenge U.S. Dollar Hegemony

The creation of a new common currency will be one of the main questions on the agenda at the BRICS summit in South Africa in August. But there are still many obstacles to overcome before breaking free from the almighty dollar.

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Future Geopolitics

The U.S.-China Tech War Is Slipping Toward A Point Of No Return

Beijing recently placed an export ban to the U.S. of two key metals. The move is a retaliation for U.S. bans of Chinese tech. The question remains of whether the superpowers can compromise before a total tech war breaks out.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

From East And West, Two Ways To Scare Putin Off The Nuclear Option

Kyiv is accusing Russia of planning to blow up the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in eastern Ukraine, which would cause incalculable horror, and extend beyond the borders of Ukraine. But it may be messages in Beijing and Washington that can dissuade Vladimir Putin even more than exposing civilians, including Russians, to nuclear fallout.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

How Hard Do Western Sanctions Hit Russia? Economists Have Some Real Answers

Countries around the world have imposed round after round of sanctions on Russia since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But are they enough?

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

The Foreign And Domestic Forces That Keep Russia’s Military-Industrial Complex Turning

The continuing heavy shelling of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities shows that Russia still has more missiles than Ukrainians would have hoped. The look through the web of Kremlin diktats and murky international commerce that keeps the Russian military churning out hardware that drives the war in Ukraine

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Geopolitics War in Ukraine

Iran And Russia, An Alliance Of Common Enemies — Sealed By Sanctions

Russia attacks Ukraine with Iranian shahed drones, thinks about buying Iranian missiles, sells Iran Su-35 fighters, and starts repairing its civilian aircraft. How is it that Iran has become Russia’s main ally?

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Economy Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine Blacklist: Shaming The Companies Still Doing Business With Russia

Ukraine has compiled a blacklist of companies it says are “sponsoring” war by still doing business with Russia. The list is causing a stir within the European Union, which is currently working on its 11th round of sanctions.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Tricks For Dodging Sanctions — Or, Why You Can Still Buy A Coca-Cola In Moscow

After a year of full-scale war, Russian businesses have figured out tricks to get around international sanctions: reselling, repackaging, rerouting: Almost everything is available — for a price.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

How Russia Is Still Dodging Sanctions — With Help From Companies Everywhere

A healthy dose of cynicism and short cuts allows parts for weapons and other technology to still make their way into Russia. Independent Russian-language media Vazhnyye Istorii traces the way both Moscow and much of the rest of the world circumvent export bans.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Fight Over Tourist Visa Ban For Russians Is Taking Everyone For A Ride

High on the agenda of the Prague summit of Europe’s foreign ministers this week was a proposal to ban tourist visas for Russians, as punishment for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But it is ultimately a way to change the subject, and recalls Zelensky’s iconic remark after the war began.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

Stolen Arches, IKEAish? What Western Sanctions Mean For Brand Trademarks In Russia

The exit of top international companies from the Russian market in response to the invasion of Ukraine has led to an unraveling of Moscow’s intellectual property standards.

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Geopolitics

What A Nuclear Deal Could Mean For Iran’s Broken Economy

Ordinary Iranians are hoping for a speck of economic relief and nothing more, if Tehran can sign a nuclear deal with world powers that could alleviate longstanding sanctions.

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In The News

How Putin Played The Africa Card Just Right

African countries have mostly stayed quiet on the war in Ukraine. And with good reason. Western influence is diminishing on the continent, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows how to push the right buttons of African autocrats.

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In The News

EU’s One-Two Punch At Russia — Sanctions Extended To 2023, Gas Imports Cut 15%

The European Union has renewed its sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2023, while also taking a major step to try to reduce dependency on Russian energy exports. Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage. Sign up to our free daily newsletter. The EU energy ministers […]

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In The News

What The Grain Deal To End Russia’s Blockade Will And Will Not Include

The accord between Kyiv and Moscow has been in the works all week, signing today in Istanbul.

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Geopolitics Society

How The War In Ukraine Turned The World Of Sport Upside Down

The Russian invasion of Ukraine forced the sport world to abandon its long-held political neutrality, including the Olympics and FIFA. Is this a one-off event or a sign of a fundamental shift in sport?

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Economy Geopolitics

How Much Longer Can The Russian Economy Survive Sanctions?

The head of the Kremlin boasted at the recent forum in St. Petersburg International Economic Forum about Russia’s economic resilience against Western sanctions. But behind the scenes, Russian business leaders tell a different story.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

As Global Economy Tanks, Future Russian Sanctions Get Harder For West To Swallow

Kyiv wants the West to hit at the heart of the Russian economy, especially its energy exports, as the best weapon Ukraine and its allies may have. But with the EU preparing its 7th package of sanctions, it must strike a delicate balance as the global economy is on the brink of a major crisis.

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In The News

Why Iranians And Israelis Have More In Common Than You Think

Israel’s vocal support for Iranians protesting the regime will lay the grounds for ties with a future democratic Iran, whenever that may come.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

How Sanctions Are Quietly Destroying Russia’s Economy

The European Union has prepared the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which includes restrictions on Russian oil imports, as well as disconnecting more Russian banks from the SWIFT bank circuit. The effectiveness of these measures are not always visible, but they are real … and potentially fatal .. for the Russian economy.

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In The News

Ukraine War Geopolitics: The Growing Risk Of Nonalignment

From India to Brazil to South Africa, countries in the so-called “Global South” are leading a renewed movement of not picking sides in order to protect national interests that may make the new Cold War even more perilous than the last one.

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Economy Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Dubai Postcard: Russian Oligarchs Find Refuge From Sanctions In UAE

Hit with Western sanctions, Russian oligarchs are racing against time to relocate their assets to tax havens. They turn to private banks where transactions, opaque as they are in the UAE for instance, make it almost impossible to trace funds.

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Economy

Moscow Faces First Foreign Debt Default Since The Czar Was Ousted: Does Putin Even Care?

A default would be one of the clearest signals that the sanctions are having their intended effect on the Russian economy. But its impact on Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine may be another story.

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Economy Geopolitics

Ruble Or Nothing: How Russia Is Trying To Blackmail The West Again

In an attempt to shore up its failing economy, Russia is trying to blackmail the West and asking to be paid in rubles for its natural gas. However, such a move is unlikely to help Moscow in the long-term. And the important question still remains of how the EU will manage without Russian gas.

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In The News

Inside The French Hunt For Russian Oligarchs And Their Riches

Chalets in Courchevel, villas on the Cap d’Antibes peninsula, yachts and valuable paintings are in the sights of the Ministry of Economy’s task force. But in this game of cat and mouse through a maze of offshore companies, nominees and trusts, oligarchs are often one step ahead.

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Economy Geopolitics

Saddam, Putin, Maduro: How Dictators See Their Oil Differently

The West is paying the price for buying oil from one tyrant in Russia, and must think carefully before rushing to Venezuela to do the same with another dictatorship. Business is not always business.

Categories
Ideas

The Eternal Russian Art Of Isolation

Like from a Pushkin tale, Soviet embargo, or even a COVID lockdown, Russia is at home when it is proudly or despondently cut off from the external world. And after a post-Soviet pause of opening up, here we are again, says Russian writer Yury Saprykin.

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Economy Ideas

Mother Russia v. Big Macs And iPhones? Why Sanctions Are Bound To Fail

Western freedoms in Russia are only partially appealing, since historically, Russians never had them. Instead, the Russian people are patient, stoic and often irrationally devoted to their cruel motherland.

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Economy Geopolitics

How Sanctions Can Hit Even Harder: Guidance From A Russian In Kyiv

Europe’s addiction to Russian energy paid for the assault against Ukraine. And in spite of crippling sanctions, it is inadvertently continuing to fund the war by not cutting two major Russian banks from SWIFT.

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Economy Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Vladimir Putin’s Two Economic Bets

By deciding to invade Ukraine, the President of Russia did so believing that money would protect his country. By trying to prove him wrong, the West is facing its own potential crash.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Why Sanctions Won’t Stop Putin

You can threaten to destroy the Russian economy or target the president’s friends, but you can’t stop Putin’s imaginary vision of the past, and present. It’s bad news for Western diplomats, for peace in the region — and may be the ultimate ruin of modern Russia.

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Economy Geopolitics Migrant Lives

Iranians Used To Flee For Politics, Now It’s Economics

The desperation to leave Islamic Iran has spread from writers, dissidents and minority groups to hundreds of thousands of Iranians willing to live and work “anywhere that isn’t Iran.”

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Economy Geopolitics

Biden On Trade: Trump-Like Protectionism, With A Smile

The Democrat Joe Biden may not sound as aggressive as Trump in protectionist policy to support American firms global competitors, but will broadly follow his policies.

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Geopolitics Ideas

How Russia Returned To Center Stage In The Middle East

As Trump leads a U.S. retreat from the region, Russia has methodically moved back into a position of influence that it had in Soviet times.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics Ideas Trump And The World

American Sanctions Are Back On Iran — Will It Work?

-OpEd- BERLIN — Thousands of students marched through Tehran last weekend, and state television broadcast the protest march live. The crowd burned U.S. flags and pictures of President Donald Trump in front of the building of the former U.S. embassy. And, yes, they chanted: “Death to America.” After the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear treaty […]

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