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Future Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Butterfly Wings & Wheat: How The Ukraine War Could Spark Global Food Crises

In an interconnected world, we are faced again with the negative implications of the so-called “butterfly effect” when a localized conflict can have far-reaching consequences and trigger lasting crises. For our world’s broken food systems, the war in Ukraine should be a wake-up call.

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Economy Geopolitics

India’s Deal For Cheap Russian Oil Is Strategically Dubious And Morally Bankrupt

While the strategic issues are still being debated, the Indian government has dismissed the moral issue by concluding a cheap oil agreement with Russia. But are Indian consumers prepared to accept the true cost of discount Russian oil?

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Geopolitics Ideas

Russia-Ukraine: What Compromise Would Look Like, And How We Get There

The war continues to rage as negotiations sputter. However, the search for a compromise that’s honorable for both parties is the only way to avoid escalating violence. There is a way to build the proverbial “golden bridge” of retreat for all.

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Society

How The Russian Orthodox Church Is Backing Putin’s Holy Crusade

Patriarch Kirill I has offered Putin a religious justification for his invasion of Ukraine, while Pope Francis stands firmly with the Ukrainian people. The leader of the Russian Orthodox Church is a close ally of Putin’s, and has surprising links to the KGB.

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Russia-Ukraine War

From Lviv, Worrying New Signs That Belarus Is Set To Join The War

After Minsk recalled all its embassy staff from Ukraine over the weekend, additional reports now show evidence around the northwest territory that Alexander Lukashenko may be ready to join Putin in the assault on the southern neighbor.

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Economy Ideas

Mother Russia v. Big Macs And iPhones? Why Sanctions Are Bound To Fail

Western freedoms in Russia are only partially appealing, since historically, Russians never had them. Instead, the Russian people are patient, stoic and often irrationally devoted to their cruel motherland.

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Geopolitics Ideas

The U.S. Has Quietly Told Europe It Won’t Fight On Its Behalf Again

It went largely unnoticed, but Washington’s refusal to let MiG fighter jets destined for the Ukrainians take off from their base in Germany is a clear message, according to a retired French general: Even if a NATO country is attacked, the U.S. will never send their soldiers to fight on our soil.

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Economy Geopolitics

How Sanctions Can Hit Even Harder: Guidance From A Russian In Kyiv

Europe’s addiction to Russian energy paid for the assault against Ukraine. And in spite of crippling sanctions, it is inadvertently continuing to fund the war by not cutting two major Russian banks from SWIFT.

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In The News

Peace-Loving Putin v. War-Mongering West: How Russian Media Is Spinning Ukraine

The message from state-controlled media in Russia is clear: we are a peace-loving country constantly provoked by the West. The coverage is very different to the war hysteria before the annexation of Crimea and hides how the Kremlin benefits financially from tensions in Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Ideas

How The West Got Russia So Wrong — And Keeps Getting It Wrong

Ukrainian President Zelensky’s belief that Russia’s invasion has nullified both European and global security should not be taken lightly. Everything must be rebuilt — and must happen much faster than Western leaders seem prepared to do. A view from Kyiv-based news media Livy Bereg.

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In The News

Syria, The Laboratory For Putin’s Brutality In Ukraine

Putin is increasing his attacks on Ukrainian civilians and may be preparing to use chemical weapons. But these horrific tactics are not new — they were perfected by the Russian army during a brutal war in Syria.

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In The News

Long Neglected, Romania Could Be NATO’s Achilles Heel

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, NATO has reinforced its presence eastward — but the Baltic countries and Poland were the prime beneficiaries. But Romania, which shares the longest border with Ukraine, may be the country most directly in Vladimir Putin’s path.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Taiwan, Past And Future: Two Lessons For China From The Russia-Ukraine War

China is already profiting from the West’s economic divorce from Russia. But its biggest interest may be to learn from Russia’s experience of invading a land it claims for itself.

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In The News

Oligarchs Au Revoir: Russia’s War Drifts On To The French Riviera

The likely defection of Russian tourists this summer is clouding the prospects of tourism professionals in the South of France, whose activity is still recovering from the pandemic. An emblematic snapshot of the after-effects of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

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In The News

Why So Many Asian Countries Are Staying Neutral On Putin

Western countries want to isolate Russia on the world stage. But for many Asian countries, the war in Ukraine is distant geographically and economically, and represents an existential debate between dictatorships and democracies.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

‘Z’ Marks Moldova, Inside Putin’s Potential Next Target

An exclusive visit inside Moldova’s breakaway pro-Russian republic of Transnistria, which many fear may be the gateway to the next war after Ukraine in the strategically important target.

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Geopolitics Ideas

China May Be Set To Turn Against Russia For Its Epic Miscalculation In Ukraine

China did not expect a protracted and bloody war in Ukraine, which is causing global upheaval and thus major problems for Beijing’s interests. There are growing signs that the Chinese government’s policy of “strategic neutrality” is reaching its limit.

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In The News

Why Western Brands Are Dumping Russia So Quickly

More than 300 companies have announced plans to close stores, reassign staff or stop selling products in Russia since the Feb. 24 invasion. These decisions fit in with a recent trend of companies listening to customers, though the geopolitical factors are a new twist.

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Economy Geopolitics Ideas

Pandemic To Putin, Rise Of The “Independence Obsession”

First, the COVID-19 crisis, and now the need to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are forcing countries to confront the risks of global interdependence. In its place comes a rush to establish national autonomy for crucial resources, from masks to oil and gas. But at what price?

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Geopolitics Ideas Society

Cancel Russia? The Risk Of Targeting Culture In Times Of War

From Tolstoy and the Bolshoi Ballet to Russia Today, the West is banishing Russian composers, artists and media. But is banishment of culture the right move in times of war?

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Geopolitics

Welcome To The End Of Western Dominance

We are no longer in the age of liberal democracy’s inevitable triumph. Instead, we are living in a new multipolar world of ideological turbulence in which the West is not the main player.

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Geopolitics

Yanukovych And A New “Little Russia”: Putin’s Final Plan For Ukraine

Putin says he wants to “denazify” Ukraine, but his true goal is bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence as part of an all-Russian nation. To achieve that, he will try to turn it into a second Belarus, with a puppet ruler who has a familiar face.

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In The News

Beyond No-Fly Zones: Weighing The West’s Options To Help Ukraine Militarily

Ukrainians are pleading with the West to establish a no-fly zone to stop the destruction of their country. But that would be a high-risk option. Now the U.S. is considering delivering fighting jets, but that could also escalate the conflict. What else can be done?

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Geopolitics Ideas

Does NATO Deter Or Provoke Russia? Look To Finland And Sweden For The Answer

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rekindled the Nordic debate over the possibility of joining NATO, prompting Russian threats. It’s a microcosm for the conflict itself.

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Geopolitics Society

Lviv Diary: Fragments Of The New Ordinary, Ukraine Swallowed By War

Ukranian literary translator Juri Durkot shares his notes about new everyday tasks as the country is at war.

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In The News

Yes, Ukraine’s Vast Nuclear Power Network Presents Enormous Risks

The shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has raised concerns, even if there are no initial signs of radiation from this incident. But what about the other plants that are located in the immediate vicinity of the Russian attack path?

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Geopolitics

Iran’s Take On Russia-Ukraine: Nuclear Arms Are Our Best Defense

While cheering the Russian attack on Ukraine, Iranian state media have also drawn the “lesson” from this war that a state can only be strong if it has a nuclear arsenal.

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Economy Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Vladimir Putin’s Two Economic Bets

By deciding to invade Ukraine, the President of Russia did so believing that money would protect his country. By trying to prove him wrong, the West is facing its own potential crash.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

And Russia’s Interests? No Good Scenario From Ukraine Invasion

A top analyst at one of Moscow’s most prestigious research institutes comes down clear and strong: Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine will leave the country isolated on the world stage, with grave consequences for the country’s future.

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In The News

Videos For Mom v. Mobile Crematoriums: How Russia Is Losing The Info War

One week since Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, Russia has failed to control the narrative at home and abroad.

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Russia-Ukraine War Society

Wroclaw Postcard: What We Learn About Ourselves In A Wartime Train Station

The war in Ukraine has prompted a huge outpouring of compassion across the border in Poland. It is a positive reflection of the human condition, but also a reminder that we should care for others and outsiders even when there’s no nearby conflict.

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Geopolitics

State Of The Union, State Of The World: Biden’s Hard Line On Putin

Less than a week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a new cleavage in international affairs, U.S. President Joe Biden outlined a vision for confronting Moscow as necessary for the pursuit of America’s ambitions at home and abroad.

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Society

Meet The Russian VIPs Defying Putin To Say No To War

Russian pop starts, artists and athletes are speaking out against the war in Ukraine, with some already suffering the consequences.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Why A Rearmed Germany Is Exactly What The World Needs Now

For decades, burdened by its history, Germany refused to face the harsh realities of foreign policy. Now, suddenly spurred by the Ukraine crisis, the German government is ready to once again show strength — long-awaited good news, for all.

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In The News

Vladimir The What? Putin’s Tsarist Vision Of A 21st-Century Russian Empire

Vladimir Putin’s claims that NATO threatens Russia’s security, and that the only way Russia will back down is if NATO promises never to admit Ukraine, is a bait and switch. His long-term dream is to erase the idea of a Ukrainian nation on the road to his wider tsarist conquests.

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In The News

Ukraine, A Guidebook For Our Survival

Faced with a massive invasion by its far more powerful neighbor, Ukrainians must be conscious of the stakes at play and the means that Vladimir Putin is prepared to employ.

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Economy Geopolitics

Russian Oligarchs Turn To Crypto To Skirt Sanctions

Faced with a $32 billion drop in their wealth this year, Russian oligarchs are looking for assets to allow them to overcome sanctions that will increase with the invasion of Ukraine. Familiar with crises, they see bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as an escape from the hegemony of the dollar, and a way to diversify their holdings.

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In The News

Putin’s Pretext: How A Staged Evacuation In Donbas Paved Way For Russian Invasion

Exclusive: New details emerge of a would-be forced evacuation last week of pro-Russian civilians from the Donetsk and Luhansk territories that Vladimir Putin has used to justify Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine. Locals call the operation a “farce.”

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Geopolitics Ideas

Why Sanctions Won’t Stop Putin

You can threaten to destroy the Russian economy or target the president’s friends, but you can’t stop Putin’s imaginary vision of the past, and present. It’s bad news for Western diplomats, for peace in the region — and may be the ultimate ruin of modern Russia.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Russia’s Prime Export Under Putin: Chaos

Russia’s president is neither clearly right-wing nor left-wing. As his dubious allies around the world suggest, he simply hates Western liberal democracy and seeks to expand his personal power, at home and abroad, by sowing unrest and conflict.

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