Sudan And The Specter Of A Proxy War
Sudanese civil society is still alive, and recently it was still fighting to enforce a transition agreement towards a civilian regime. However, the military never intended to play by the rules of a return to the barracks, as their appetite for power is too strong.
April 17, 2023, smoke and destruction the city of Al Fasher in North Darfur, following clashes between the Sudanese Army and the RSF militia.
Stringer/IMAGESLIVE/ZUMA
Wagner Group in the mix
As explained by the authors of a recent book on this revolution, The Unfinished Democracy, the protesters hoped for a total transformation of the political game in Sudan, but instead found themselves facing the intrigues of a group of generals with foreign support and significant interests in the country's economy.
Generals Burhan and Hemetti are now building competing narratives that portray themselves in a positive light. However, the former was a pillar of Omar al-Bashir's dictatorship until he sensed a shift in power, and the latter is responsible for the massacres in Darfur and the worst abuses against protesters in Khartoum. Neither of the two men can claim to be defenders of democracy.
The democratic revolution is not dead in Sudan.
Several countries in the region, such as Djibouti, and even the African Union itself, are attempting mediation and calling for a ceasefire. However, so far, these efforts have been unsuccessful.
But above all, there are other actors eager to add fuel to the fire. Each general has his own international support and network, and this war is at risk of becoming yet another proxy conflict, a war fought on behalf of larger interests. Egypt on one side, the United Arab Emirates or Libyan General Haftar on the other, and even the Russian Wagner Group militia, which is never far away when a strategic vacuum arises somewhere on the African continent.
In the current disorder of the world, with the United Nations hampered and unable to fulfill their mission, troublemakers have a free hand. The democratic revolution is not dead in Sudan; but today, it is a clash of arms between two greedy generals.
