Worldcrunch
It is likely that there will not be a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia this year — or ever one at all. If negotiations stagnate, they could resemble the post-World War II relations between Japan and the Soviet Union: A peace treaty was never signed, and the dispute over the Kuril Islands has persisted for more than 70 years.
The next major geopolitical conflict is brewing in the Sahel region, in the north-central stretch of Africa south of the Sahara. Islamists and armed militias are plunging the entire region into chaos, and it is even possible a new jihadist emirate may emerge. Experts are already predicting there will be thousands of new refugees. Their destination: Europe.
In the wake of Hamas’s attack on Israel, the United States, often projected as no longer wanting to be the region’s policeman, finds itself deploying aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean and conducting F16 raids against Iranian targets in Syria. But the epoch-shifting challenge is elsewhere.
Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday evening the recall of the French ambassador to Niger, and the departure of the 1,500 French soldiers stationed there: the end of a dangerous impasse. France is being forced to wholly review its African policy.