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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Vladimir Putin, And The Cruel Art Of Disposing Of Your Enemies

Yevgeny Prigozhin is gone, two months to the day of his aborted insurrection against the Russian military. The Wagner Group chief was likely killed in a plane crash on orders from the Kremlin. A piece written after Wagner’s coup offers a reminder that Russia is in the hands of a man obsessed with control, who wields his cowardice as a weapon.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Fear Or Fear-Mongering? What’s Lurking Behind Poland’s “Wagner Panic”

The presence of Russian Wagner paramilitary troops near the Polish border has sent the country’s prime minister into a panic, while on the campaign trail. But are worries about the presence of a mere 100 mercenaries justified or is it somehow part of Mateusz Morawiecki’s scare tactics, as in 2015?

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Putin And Lukashenko, Sowing Seeds Of Discord Between Ukraine And Its Ally Poland

Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and longtime ally Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko have issued statements accusing Poland of having territorial ambitions in Ukraine. It’s a worrying development that opens the door to military confrontation with NATO — and the looming presence of Wagner troops isn’t making things easier.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Why Is The “Traitor” Prigozhin Already Back In Russia?

The post-coup mystery continues with reports that Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is not, in fact, in Belarus, but in Russia. A look at what it says about Vladimir Putin’s hold on power.

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In The News

“How I Saved Putin” — Lukashenko Emboldened, Pushes For Power Broker Role

Alexander Lukashenko recounts how he took charge of the operation to defend Moscow from Yevgeny Prigozhin, and looks to shift the region’s balance of power. “I am as much a participant in these events as Putin. So if someone in Russia talks about Lukashenko mediating, there is no mediation!”

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Geopolitics Migrant Lives Russia-Ukraine War

Belarus May Be Pushing Migrants Into The EU Again — This Time With Russian Help

In 2021, Belarus strongman Lukashenko triggered a migration crisis when he actively drove asylum seekers to the EU. According to the German government, those numbers are on the rise again.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Is Lukashenko Sick? Putin Too? Why Ukraine Won’t Be Waiting For Dictators To Die

A spate of speculation on the health of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko follows similar reports about would-be Vladimir Putin illnesses. Such talk feeds the hope of the Russian opposition and many in the West. Ukrainians have a different agenda — and timetable.

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Russia-Ukraine War

No Compromise: What’s Driving Poland’s New Hard Line On Russia

“We are realists, and therefore we do not believe in the possibility of a compromise between freedom and slavery…” Poland’s foreign minister has outlined what the country’s foreign strategy will look like in the coming years, built on support of Ukraine and steadfast resistance to the Russian aggressors.

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In The News

Russian Nukes In Belarus: Lessons From Putin’s Cheapest Blackmail Yet

Of course Russia’s announcement of moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus should not be underestimated. But the reality is that, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia’s nuclear situation has not changed. We should instead look hard at where both Minsk and Beijing have wound up.

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Geopolitics

NGO Crackdowns Are Spreading, In Both Dictatorships And Democracies

NGOs around the world are facing difficulties as governments criminalize them. The crackdown leaves states less accountable, while the biggest victims are the most vulnerable.

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In The News

Alliance Or Annexation: What Are Putin’s Ultimate Plans For Belarus?

Putin has stated in the past that Ukraine and Belarus should be a part of the Russian Federation. But his plans in Belarus have been postponed by war on the other neighbor, and the shrinking room for maneuver of Minsk’s strongman Alexander Lukashenko

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In The News

The Lukashenko Method: How Long Can Belarus Keep Teasing The Russian Bear?

The regime in Belarus bet on a rapid Russian victory in Ukraine. But after a year of war, the armed forces of Belarus still haven’t been ordered to attack. Why? Ukrainian publication Livy Bereg looks at Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s cunning game — and how much longer it can go on.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Rail War: How Belarusians Are Secretly Fighting Putin And Lukashenko

It remains unclear whether Belarus’ strongman Alexander Lukashenko will join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet as popular support for the war remains low, many in the country are actively fighting back by sabotaging the rail network.

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In The News Russia-Ukraine War

Putin In Belarus: Is Lukashenko Ready To Enter The Ukraine War?

Five days after Minsk’s troops began amassing at the Belarus-Ukraine border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for an impromptu summit with Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus’ strongman is increasingly seen as no longer having the option to say No to entering Putin’s war against Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Death Of Belarus’ Foreign Minister Makei Tightens Kremlin Grip On Lukashenko

Whether or not the 64-year-old died of natural causes, the Kremlin is reinforced now in Minsk — leaving even less wiggle room for Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko.

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In The News Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainian Flag Rises In Kherson After Nine Months Of Occupation

This is among the most important signs of how the war has turned against Russia in the past three months.

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In The News

The ‘Union State’ — Inside Putin’s Plans To Rebuild The USSR With A 1990s Treaty

What are Vladimir Putin’s long-term goals in Ukraine? An overlooked treaty from the mid-1990s reveal that his ambitions go far beyond Ukraine to building a Russian Empire 2.0.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Next Big Move? What Would Happen If Belarus Enters War Against Ukraine

As the war in Donbas is bogged down, the most likely major new gambit in Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine would be to get military support from his ally in Minsk, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko. How would that actually go down?

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In The News

Time’s Up, Lukashenko: Belarus Prepares To Join The War Against Ukraine

Staunch Putin ally Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has recently tried to distance himself from an escalating war. But a series of events over the past month look set to drag him into Moscow’s war with all the risks that entails for his small country.

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In The News

Kyiv’s Advances In The South Could Cut Off 25,000 Russia Troops

The southern advance in the Kherson region is closing in along the west bank of the Dnipro River to cut off Russian supply lines.

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In The News

Putin’s Landmark Annexation Speech Paves Way For Escalation

For Vladimir Putin, there are “four new regions of Russia.”

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In The News

More Than 40 Ukrainian Prisoners Dead, Russia And Ukraine Blame Each Other

Russia and authorities in the occupied region of Donetsk say that more than 40 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been killed as well as at least 130 injured, after Ukrainian forces shelled a prison where they were being held. The prison located in Olenivka was housing Ukrainian soldiers taken into custody after the fall of […]

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In The News

What The Grain Deal To End Russia’s Blockade Will And Will Not Include

The accord between Kyiv and Moscow has been in the works all week, signing today in Istanbul.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Flashback In The USSR? How Former Soviet Republics Are Reacting To War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has been upfront about his desire to rebuild Russia’s influence in the region. Former Soviet states are watching developments in Ukraine closely, with many trying to ensure futures free of interference by Moscow.

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In The News

Death Toll Rises In Ukrainian Mall Attack, As Russia Steps Up Targeting Of Civilians

Officials fear the death toll will continue to climb after two Russian missiles hit the Armstor shopping center in the central Ukrainian city of Kramenchuk. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, more than 1,000 people were inside the mall Monday at the time of the attack. Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, […]

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In The News

Unpacking Why Belarus Will Or Won’t Join The War Against Ukraine

Analysts have closely followed whether Belarus, a loyal Kremlin ally, will invade its neighbor. But even though the Belarusian president toes the Kremlin line, he is unlikely to want to get in over his head in Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine War

From Lviv, Worrying New Signs That Belarus Is Set To Join The War

After Minsk recalled all its embassy staff from Ukraine over the weekend, additional reports now show evidence around the northwest territory that Alexander Lukashenko may be ready to join Putin in the assault on the southern neighbor.

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In The News

Could Ramzan Kadyrov Be Putin’s Successor?

The Chechen strongman is reaching outside his native territory to affirm his power, and test his ambitions. At 69, Vladimir Putin shows no signs of settling down, but he won’t live forever.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Putin’s Puppet – Or Worse? Lukashenko Is The Real Wild Card On Ukraine

With Russian troops now deployed through Belarus, the risk is growing of an invasion through Ukraine’s northern border. Vladimir Putin’s regional strategy and Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorial demands are not always what they seem.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Greater Russia? Four Scenarios For Putin’s Expansionist Ambitions

A mind map of the Russian leader’s possible plans to increase his influence, and expand his territory.

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In The News

Belarus: 18 Years For Tikhanovsky, Grim Prospects For Democracy

The jail sentence against the opposition leader is a clear sign that strongman Lukashenko is not looking back.

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Geopolitics Ideas

From Taliban To Taiwan, The Limits Of Military Power

China is beefing up its military arsenal, with Taiwan as its target. However, as with the continued difficulty to control the terrain in Afghanistan, we increasingly see that military power is far from ensuring the hegemony hoped for by stronger parties.

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In The News

COP26 Last Day, COVID Boom In Europe, Lost Penguin

? Kamusta!* Welcome to Friday, where COP26 negotiations near crunch time, two iconic multinationals are split up and a very lost penguin arrives in New Zealand. We also sit back and ask the eternal, though not-necessarily-easy, question: What makes a comfortable chair? [*Tagalog – Philippines]   SIGN UP This is our daily newsletter Worldcrunch Today, […]

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Geopolitics Ideas

Europe Against Belarus — How A Sprinter Became The New Catalyst

A virtual unknown to most of the world a few days ago, Belarusian sprinter Kristina Timanovskaya is now at the center of an Olympic drama that has spilled over into the realm of geopolitics.

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In The News

‘Joan Of Arc’ In Exile: Can Tikhanovskaya Lead Belarus From Abroad?

Violent clashes continue to rock Belarus after opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was forced to flee the country, following President Lukashenko’s reelection.

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In The News

Coronavirus Lies Backfire On Belarus Strongman Lukashenko

People are taking to the streets in a challenge to the country’s long-serving president, Alexander Lukashenko, who expects to win a sixth term in next month’s elections.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Just The Two Of Us: Why Belarus’ Lukashenko Is Betting On Putin

-Analysis- MINSK — Following the Nov. 17 elections for Belarus” lower house of parliament, independent observers and opposition politicians unanimously rated this campaign as one of the dirtiest in the 25 years of Alexander Lukashenko’s rule. The 65-year-old president of Belarus has once again demonstrated that he is not going to adjust the eastern tilt […]

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Geopolitics

Europe Set To Bring Belarus In From The Cold

MINSK — Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko has been dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator,” and ties between Brussels and Minsk have been virtually frozen since a new series of sanctions were imposed in 2010. But now, it appears, Lukashenko and his country will be welcomed back into the continent’s fold as the European Union is set to […]

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blog

ISIS Blamed In Turkey, Merkel In A Pickle, Economics Nobel

TURKEY BLAMES ISIS FOR DEADLIEST TERROR ATTACK No group has claimed responsibility for Saturday’s bombings in the Turkish capital of Ankara, the deadliest terror attack in the country’s history, but Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says the prime suspect is ISIS, Hürriyet reports. The attack is believed to have been executed by two suicide bombers outside […]

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Economy Geopolitics

The Straw Man Of Russia’s Western Food Embargo

Russia may be officially forbidding Western food on grocery shelves, but facing skyrocketing prices and shortages, it’s allowing Belarus and Kazakhstan to act as intermediaries.

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