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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Turkey-Israel Relations? It’s Complicated — But The Gaza War Is Different

Turkish President Erdogan has now called on the International Criminal Court to go after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for war crimes, as the clash between the two regional powers has reached a new low.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War special series

The Gaza Ceasefire Is Over, With Western Diplomacy Weaker Than Ever

Diplomacy has failed to stave off a resumption of the war in Gaza. Yes, Israel made clear its goal of destroying Hamas is not complete. But the end of the truce is also one more sign that both the U.S. and Europe hold less sway in the region than they once did.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

The Great Powers Don’t Want A World War — But We May Get One Anyway

Ever since Hamas launched its attack on October 7, experts have feared that the conflict, alongside the one in Ukraine, could spill over into a large-scale war between the world’s major geopolitical players. Nikolai Kozhanov, associate professor at the Center for Gulf Studies at Qatar University, analyzes how likely this is and who would benefit from such a conflict.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics

Henry Kissinger: The World’s Love-And-Hate Adieu To The Machiavelli Of Washington

China shares praise, Cambodia throws shade, Germans show pride … and from Moscow?

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Hamas v. Netanyahu: Who Has More To Gain From Hostages-For-Prisoners Deal

The agreement for a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was shaped by the political situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories. But now, the politics on the ground could change moving forward.

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Economy Geopolitics

Turkish Airlines, Erdogan’s Ultimate Soft Power Weapon

In the last 20 years, Turkish Airlines’ rapid development has shocked its competitors. The carrier is generating substantial profits, while serving the interests of the Turkish state.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War special series The Endless War

As Gaza Gets More Dire, Escalation May Be Iran’s Only Option

Iran this week has reaffirmed its full support for Hamas, issuing new threats to escalate with more attacks like Oct. 7. This came after some in the region had criticized Iran for now joining the fray directly. With the rising rhetoric, Iran can’t stay passive forever.

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Geopolitics

The Xi-Biden Summit: Can They Put An End To All Those World War III Scenarios?

The highly anticipated face-to-face between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping is about more than just global trade, it’s about putting the brakes on humanity sliding into total chaos and conflict.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Three Scenarios Where The U.S., China Or Russia Winds Up Stronger After The Gaza War

Washington, Moscow and Beijing can all, in different ways, emerge stronger from the war in Gaza war, says French geopolitical expert Dominique Moïsi. The U.S. has been more present in the Middle East since Oct. 7 — but so has Russia, while China is keeping relatively quiet.

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Geopolitics

Has The Time Come To Take U.S. Nuclear Weapons Out Of Turkey?

It was a wakeup call for some: pro-Palestinian demonstrators in Turkey tried to storm the U.S. base Incirlik where nuclear weapons have long been stationed. There is more discussion than ever about whether the NATO partner is still a trustworthy military ally with such potent weapons within reach.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Friends, Enemies And Public Opinion: Inside Biden’s Middle East Balancing Act

The United States has found itself at the forefront of a conflict that the whole world is following. President Joe Biden faces the pull of public opinion, the threat of Iranian action, and the escalation of the Israeli state.

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Geopolitics Israel-Palestine War

Lebanon On The Brink: Where External And Internal Threats Collide

A ghost state, an economy in ruins … Lebanon has still not recovered from the explosion at the port of Beirut a little over three years ago. With war looming on its southern border, the country teeters near total collapse.

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Geopolitics

Ukraine, “Collateral Victim” Of The West’s Double Standard — And Israeli Bombs

The state of the Ukraine War was growing fragile even before Oct. 7, but the conflict in the Middle East has changed the equation in Moscow’s favor. It’s not just a shift in attention and resources, but an undermining of the values and rationale behind Kyiv’s cause.

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Eyes on the U.S. Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Blinken’s Faceless Diplomacy — A Secret Weapon For Post-War Peace?

Reserved, not accustomed to the spotlight, capable of taking a step back and not overshadowing the president. In this time of crisis, Antony Blinken navigates geopolitics with the president’s full trust.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Zelensky Should Cancel His Visit To Israel Right Now

After the postponement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s planned trip to Israel, there are voices now saying it should be cancelled outright. What’s the price of Ukraine publicly declaring its support for the current actions of the Israeli government and military?

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Geopolitics Ideas

Should We Read The Middle East And Ukraine As A Single Narrative?

For the future of our world, neither the stakes in Ukraine nor Gaza should be underestimated. But understanding the limits of the comparison is important to trying to find a way out of each, says veteran French political scientist Dominique Moïsi.

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Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Inside Israel’s Plans To Transfer Palestinians From Gaza To Egypt’s Sinai

Dubbed by some as the ‘Eiland plan,’ after a retired Israel general, Egypt is vehemently opposed to any attempt to transfer Palestinian refugees from Gaza, which could turn Sinai into a launch pad for operations against Israel, and ultimately redraw the map of the Middle East again.

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Geopolitics Ideas

What Makes Rugby The Defining Sport Of Modern Democracy

As the Rugby World Cup final approaches, French writer Yves Bourdillon notes that the sport is popular almost exclusively in democratic countries. The reason? Its Anglo-Saxon origins, the complexity of its rules and its values, a miracle of balance between individualism and collective spirit.

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Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Why It’s So Hard For The West To Call For A Simple Ceasefire In Gaza

Even as casualties are mounting and bombs keep falling on civilians in Gaza, Western countries fail to reach a consensus and unambiguously call for a ceasefire. It’s a mix of history, alliances and being too careful.

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Geopolitics

The United Nations — “Uncomfortable Witness” To Occupation, Virtual Enemy In Israel

The growing rift between Israel and the United Nations, since Secretary-General António Guterres’ statement that the Oct. 7 Hamas attack did not happen in a “vacuum.”

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Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Macron In The Middle East — Do The French Have The Answer?

The French president is expected to call for a “humanitarian pause” in Israel and the opening of a “political perspective” for the Palestinians, while displaying his solidarity with Israel. A singular voice, which recalls France’s past commitments, but in a radically changed context.

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Geopolitics

“Axis Of Resistance” — How The Iran-Sponsored Militias Could Widen The War Against Israel

For decades now, the Islamic Republic of Iran has created, armed and trained paramilitary groups in several Middle Eastern states, all of which are believed to stand at the ready to strike Israel and Western targets at Tehran’s command.

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Geopolitics Ideas

How India’s New All-In Support Of Israel Could Backfire

The Indian government’s decision to move from its historic stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict and to actively support Israel following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack is not only questionable, writes a New Delhi commentator, but it could also have consequences for the country on a diplomatic and geopolitical level.

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Economy Geopolitics

Oil Dependence: Three Wars, One Lesson

Ukraine, Israel, Azerbaijan: the three conflicts highlight energy vulnerability.

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Geopolitics Ideas

The Hamas-Israel War: What We Already Know Has Changed Forever

There will be a before and after to October 7, 2023, so unprecedented and traumatic have the events of the last 48 hours been for Israel, followed by massive retaliation. We can already draw several lessons from this.

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Geopolitics

How The Chaos In Washington Emboldens Moscow And Beijing

The deep dysfunction of American democracy is bringing smiles (and big ideas) to autocratic regimes around the world, convinced that it is a sign of the West in decline.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Genocide To Ethnic Cleansing, Why Europe Has Forsaken Armenians Again

As Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh are forced to flee their homes, is culture or corruption or something more sinister forcing a people to suffer so greatly a century after a genocide tried to wipe them out?

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Geopolitics Society

Why Slovakia’s Robert Fico Is Good For Putin — And Even Better For Orban

One man’s victory in Slovakia may move the tides of European support for Ukraine, and play into an “illiberal temptation” that is spreading across the continent, with Hungary’s prime minister set to cash in on his perennial clash with the EU.

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Future Geopolitics

What The China-Morocco Alliance Says About Our Geopolitical Future

As the world’s technologies change, so do the countries with not only advantages in production, but also geography and diplomacy. China knows this, and sees that investing in Moroccan resources is a particularly smart bet in the long run.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Where Imperialism Goes To Die: Lessons From Afghanistan To Ukraine

With multilateral diplomacy in tatters, the fighting gumption of weaker states against aggression by bigger powers is helping end the age of empires.

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Geopolitics

France Leaves Niger: Exposing The Empty Shell Of Post-Colonialism

Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday evening the recall of the French ambassador to Niger, and the departure of the 1,500 French soldiers stationed there: the end of a dangerous impasse. France is being forced to wholly review its African policy.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

War Of Attrition, Western Fatigue, U.S. Election: Clock Is Ticking On Ukraine’s Fate

Russia is hoping that the West’s support for Ukraine will begin to falter. Kyiv knows this, and is therefore trying to obtain long-term aid agreements — which have the potential to determine their future. But the current Poland-Ukraine row is a troubling sign.

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Geopolitics

The Trudeau-Modi Row Reveals Growing Right-Wing Bent Of India’s Diaspora

Western governments will not be oblivious to the growing right-wing activism among the diaspora and the efforts of the BJP and Narendra Modi’s government to harness that energy for political support and stave off criticism of India.

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Geopolitics

The Nagorno-Karabakh Debacle: Bad News For Putin Or Set Up For A Coup In Armenia?

It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.

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In The News

A U.S.-Iran $6 Billion Prisoner Exchange: Ransom Or Realpolitik?

With $6 billion freed up to go in the coffers of the corrupt and repressive regime in Tehran, nobody is happy. But sometimes there is no alternative to the imperfect nature of international diplomacy.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Putin & Kim: What Happens When Two Pariahs Have Nothing Left To Lose

North Korea lends its full support to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and will supply ammunition to Moscow, which in return will help Kim Jong-un with his space ambitions. With the whiff of a Cold War alliance, it shows how two regimes that have become so isolated they multiply the risks for the rest of the world.

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Future Geopolitics Ideas

Is There Any Way To Rein In The Power Of Big Tech?

A new biography of the Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and Space X boss reveals that Elon Musk prevented the Ukrainian army from attacking the Russian fleet in Crimea last year, by limiting the beam of his Starlink satellites. Unchecked power is a problem.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Where To Look When The Very Idea Of Peace Is Gone?

The signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago was followed by a failure that set back the very idea of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A look back at this historic episode and the lessons we can learn from it today.

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In The News

Why Morocco Still Won’t Accept Earthquake Aid From France?

Time is the most precious resource when it comes to disaster relief, and yet French teams have been left waiting for Morocco’s approval for their aid. Looking at recent tensions might explain why the country is hesitating on accepting help in a time of such dire need.

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Economy Geopolitics Ideas

Why India Should Bet On A BRICS Future (And Let G20 Pass On By)

With the G20 in New Delhi around the corner, India risks finding itself the wrong side of history, and end up as an observer and not one of the drivers of a “once in a lifetime” change.

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