October 19, 2015
It is by now well established that Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk (The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade), a one-time member of the Free Syrian Army Southern Front coalition, has become pro-Islamic State (ISIS) in orientation, using the ISIS flag in its logo and echoing ISIS discourse in its statements.
The brigade has also begun to mimic ISIS's style of administration and governance by controlling a contiguous area of towns and villages in the Yarmouk Valley in south-western Deraa province.
What's not clear is how this transition came about. When exactly did Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk begin leaning towards ISIS? How did it happen? And what is the current state of play in the Yarmouk Valley?
The first claims of a Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk alignment with ISIS came in December 2014 from Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, which sparked clashes between the two groups that culminated in a ceasefire brokered by the Salafi rebel group Harakat al-Muthanna al-Islamiya. Though other Southern Front commanders at the time denied that Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk was secretly in league with ISIS, local testimony makes it clear that after the clashes, a connection between Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk and ISIS became a matter of public knowledge in the Yarmouk Valley.
"It began after the clashes. It was in the beginning only that members heard about the Dawla ISIS. They liked the manhaj ideological program, and there was a revolution of the youth, who said: "We want to follow their path if they are truthful,"" Rola al-Baridi, a resident from the town of Jamla, an area controlled by Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk, said via Facebook.
No one, however, was able or willing to confirm the allegations of secret contact prior to that period. As al-Baridi put it, "With regards to whether there was a secret connection with respect to the leadership, this I donâ€™t know about. We are speaking about what is in the open."
One member of the group, calling himself Abu Faruk, portrayed his brigade as having always been "Islamic" in orientation. "From the beginning, the brigade was Islamic in formation and thought," he said. This assertion should be taken with a pinch of salt. The term used by locals and members of the group to describe the changes that have come about in the Yarmouk Valley since knowledge of the connection between ISIS and Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk became public is islah, meaning "reform" in Arabic.
Imposing Islamic morality
In this regard, the most notable change has been the establishment in al-Shajra of a separate court as a way to circument the authority of the Dar al-â€˜Adl, the accepted judicial body among factions in the south. The Dar al-â€˜Adl considers the court to be illegal. It also accuses Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk of targeting and assassinating members of other factions.
Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk, nevertheless, continued to defy the Dar al-â€˜Adl, announcing (again) in late July the opening of an "Islamic court," only this time with an "Islamic police" force to accompany it, imitating ISISâ€™ own Islamic police. And in August, Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk set up a Diwan al-Hisba â€" taking the name ISIS uses for its own department of governance designed to enforce Islamic morality.
Here though, a notable difference exists for now between Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk and ISIS. Both engage in free distribution of the niqab â€" or face veil â€" to local women, but so far, wearing it has not become compulsory in Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk territory. "They the Diwan al-Hisba of Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk call on women to wear it and distribute the niqab, but without coercion," says Rola al-Baridi.
The group has also been confiscating cigarettes and closing shops that have been selling them. One member of the brigade, calling himself Abu Layth al-Yarmouki, explained the "reform" as one of gradual implementation, pointing out that the past environment had not made application of Shariâ€™a immediately viable. "Our amir al-Khal the leader of Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk is trying to implement the law of God in this land, but there are obstacles," al-Yarmouki said.
"Besides customs and traditions, there has also been a kafir non-Islamic regime that did not forbid what God forbade: the thief was imprisoned and if he paid a bribe, he got out of his prison," he went on to say. "The man and woman who fornicate, there was no ruling against them. Smoking, drunkenness, prostitution houses, and scandalous dress were considered personal freedom."
A question of motivation
In addition to implementing draconian rulings according to its interpretations of Islamic law, ISIS also places heavy emphasis on the concept of â€œutopiaâ€ (i.e. a life of security and normality) and displaying provision of services in the form of a comprehensive bureaucracy, such as the Diwan al-Khidamat (services department). Though Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk has imitated the utopia concept to an extent, by showcasing the normality of life in the Yarmouk Valley with a photo series of a football match, no evidence exists of services provision from the group. Locals are forced to rely on private generators for electricity and must buy water from individual sellers.
This situation is partly due to the state of siege that exists in the area, as the southern Jaysh al-Fatah (including Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham) and the Southern Frontâ€™s al-Farqat al-Awlain in particular try to rout Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk. "There is in our region a committee to distribute bread and humanitarian aid when Jabhat al-â€˜Ahra derogatory for Jabhat al-Nusra allows it to pass through it to us," said al-Yarmouki. Prices for goods seem high. Al-Yarmouki claimed the price of meat is $6.36 a kilo, petrol is $2.91 a litre, and one roll of bread is $0.07.
Still unclear amid all the details is motivation. What prompted the turn toward ISIS? To be sure, the brigade did not exactly have the best reputation, even as a member of the wider Southern Front coalition. Perhaps the group saw a chance to improve its standing among locals by gradually becoming more Islamic in governance and deepening its affinity with ISIS.
There have been somewhat comparable cases elsewhere in the Syrian civil war: out in the Albukamal area in the east of Deir az-Zor province along the border with Iraq, the local western-backed FSA affiliate Liwa Allahu Akbar, under the leadership of Saddam al-Jamal, clashed with Jabhat al-Nusra in September 2013. Widely viewed as corrupt, al-Jamal later emerged as a defector to ISIS, although allegations of connections with ISIS were not at the center of the initial clashes with Jabhat al-Nusra. One well-connected source in ISIS-held territories said al-Jamal is now the ISIS wali provincial governor of ISISâ€™ Wilayat al-Kheir Deir az-Zor province.
For now, Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk has not become ISISâ€™ Wilayat Deraa in Syria, but that seems to be only a matter of time and partly dependent on whether ISIS can connect the Yarmouk Valley to the rest of its contiguous territorial holdings in Syria. â€œInshallah,â€ said one Ahmad Brede of Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk when asked if they would become Wilayat Deraa.
For rebels in the area, destroying Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk is a matter of ever greater urgency, as they may eventually end up trapped in a pincer between ISIS forces to the north and Liwa Shuhadaâ€™ al-Yarmouk from behind.
Aymenn al-Tamimi is a research fellow at the Middle East Forum, a U.S. think-tank. Focusing primarily on Syria and Iraq. He is currently based along the border with Syria. His website iswww.aymennjawad.org
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Crunching the numbers of South Korea's personal and household debt offers a glimpse into what drives the win-or-die plot of the Netflix hit produced in the Asian country.
Yip Wing Sum
October 16, 2021
SEOUL — The South Korean series Squid Game has become the most viewed series on Netflix, watched by over 111 million viewers and counting. It has also generated a wave of debate online and off about its provocative message about contemporary life.
The plot follows the story of a desperate man in debt, who receives a mysterious invitation to play a game in which the contestants gamble their lives on six childhood games, with the winner awarded a prize of 45.6 billion won ($38 million)... while the losers face death.
It's a plot that many have noted is not quite as surreal as it sounds, a reflection of the reality of Korean society today mired in personal debt.
Seoul housing prices top London and New York
In the polished streets of downtown Seoul, one sees endless cards and coupons advertising loans scattered on the ground. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, as the demand for loans in South Korea has exploded, lax lending policies have led to a rapid increase in personal debt.
According to the South Korean Central Bank's "Monetary Credit Policy Report," household debt reached 105% of GDP in the first quarter of this year, equivalent to approximately $1.5 trillion at the end of March, with a major share tied up in home mortgages.
Average home loans are equivalent to 270% of annual income.
One reason behind the debts is the soaring housing prices. In Seoul, home to nearly half of the country's population, housing prices are now among the highest in the world. The price to income ratio (PIR), which weighs the average price of a home to the average annual household income, is 12.04 in Seoul, compared to 8.4 in San Francisco, 8.2 in London and 5.4 in New York.
According to the Korea Real Estate Commission, 42.1% of all home purchases in January 2021 were by young Koreans in their 20s and 30s. For those in their 30s, the average amount borrowed is equivalent to 270% of their annual income.
Playing the stock market
At the same time, the South Korean stock market is booming. The increased demand to buy stocks has led to an increase in other loans such as credit. The ratio for Korean shareholders conducting credit financing, i.e. borrowing from securities companies to secure stock holdings, had reached 21.4 trillion won ($17.7 billion), further increasing the indebtedness of households.
A 30-year-old Seoul office worker who bought stocks through various forms of borrowing was interviewed by Reuters this year, and said he was "very foolish not to take advantage of the rebound."
In addition to his 100 million won ($84,000) overdraft account, he also took out a 100 million won loan against his house in Seoul, and a 50 million won stock pledge. All of these demands on the stock market have further exacerbated the problem of household debt.
42.1% of all home purchases in January 2021 were by young Koreans in their 20s and 30s
Game of survival
In response to the accumulating financial risks, the Bank of Korea has restricted the release of loans and has announced its first interest rate hike in three years at the end of August.
But experts believe that even if banks cut loans or raise interest rates, those who need money will look for other ways to borrow, often turning to more costly institutions and mechanisms.
This all risks leading to what one can call a "debt trap," one loan piling on top of another. That brings us back to the plot of Squid Game, "Either you live or I do." South Korean society has turned into a game of survival.
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