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The New York Times (sometimes abbreviated to NYT) is an American daily newspaper, founded and continuously published in New York City since 1851. It has won 117 Pulitzer Prizes, more than any other news organization. Its daily circulation is estimated to 1,380,000.
The excitement with which the West watched Prigozhin's failed uprising reveals the delusional hopes that somehow a Russian white (or black) knight will come to overthrow Putin. No, there's still only one way to be rid of him, argues Ukrainian writer Anna Akage.
-OpEd-
As a Ukrainian, last weekend's Wagner Group insurrection in Russia unfolded for me like a scene straight out of absurdist theater. Were my initial expectations too high? Or maybe I had never watched a real-time military uprising from my computer screen. Either way, I began to quickly understand that the scenes before us share nothing with what anyone can call logical reality.
Even if it was all so absurd, none of it surprised me — but more on that below!
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First, in one video clip, we see Yevgeny Prigozhin's fighters enter Rostov-on-Don, occupy the headquarters of the South Military Command, and capture Yunus-bek Yevkurov, the Deputy Defense Minister of Russia, and bring him to Prigozhin. The footage shows the sworn enemies having a pleasant conversation. Nobody shoots at anybody. Nobody even looks nervous.
Then another video circulates of a janitor sweeping the streets of Rostov, occupied by Russian convicts, paying no attention to the row of tanks behind her. On social networks, Vladimir Putin's opposition watches intently, eating popcorn and praying. Reports flash across our feeds of oligarchs' super-jets taking off following the president's plane getting out from Moscow. There's no FSB intelligence officers, no police, no Russian guards.
The world seemed to freeze: Will something big really happen in Russia right now? Was the war in Ukraine about to suddenly be over? I wasn't placing any bets, but I was pretty sure that after dust settled, the answer would be a clear, plain: No on all acounts
First the celebration, then the arrests
Ten hours later, all the experts’ and bloggers’ predictions had indeed turned out to be far off the mark: nothing happened at all. Someone talked to someone — the Belarusian dictator flashed on television. The main conspirator is escorted from Rostov with a round of applause, and people take selfies with convicts in military uniforms.
Everyone was promised imprisonment; then everyone was pardoned, and some were even rewarded.
The experts and analysts quickly backtracked. They said that even if the uprising failed, they knew everything ahead of time (U.S. intelligence), and it was the start of the end of the Putin era (as almost every New York Times analyst seemed to think).
They can’t be serious, right? There is a beautiful line in an old Soviet movie from 1979, The Very Same Munchhausen, which is apt to describe this miserable coup: first we planned a celebration, afterwards the arrests, but then decided to combine the two.
The spineless Russian opposition are proudly smiling and climbing the scaffold.
No one who can speak publicly knows why the owner of the Wagner group — a war criminal, oligarch, and former friend of Putin — suddenly announced a march on Moscow. It is even more of a mystery why he turned his fighters back before reaching the capital, a couple of hundred kilometers away on an empty road. He could have been sitting in the Kremlin ruler's chair by evening. Still, for some reason, he went to Minsk.
When Putin emerged from his bunker, he praised the soldiers who prevented a civil war and praised the civilians who rallied to defend their homeland. As usual, he was watching a different TV.
Don't wait and hope Putin will disappear before reaching for the red button.
Once again, politicians, experts, and shamans of all kinds from all over the world hope that the Russian Question will somehow resolve itself inside the Kremlin, preferably by the hands of some offended Russian oligarch.
There are some in Washington, Brussels and The Hague who are waiting and hoping for Putin to disappear before reaching for the red button. The spineless Russian opposition are proudly smiling and climbing the scaffolding. Specialists in warfare analyze every appearance by Putin and, once a week, predict his death by a popular uprising, an elite conspiracy, or a mysterious disease.
There is nothing and no one who can stop this war and keep the world from a possible nuclear catastrophe, without the weapons and determination of those who openly and brazenly oppose Putin — without ever falling for his absurdist hints, threats and head fakes.
And right now, that firepower is the Ukrainian armed forces, with the generous help of the West. So keep giving them all the support necessary to finish the job.
In a world divided between democracies and autocracies, the autocrats can count on the democrats eventually dividing among themselves— the freedom to disagree is, after all, the very cornerstone of democracy.
-Analysis-
PARIS — In a world divided between democracies and autocracies, the autocrats can count on the democrats eventually dividing among themselves— the freedom to disagree is, after all, the very cornerstone of democracy.
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In the global ideological clash playing out in the war in Ukraine, the moment has arrived where those divisions could wind up undermining the democratic cause itself. As Lucie Robequain writes for Les Echos, Vladimir Putin’s “dream” scenario is peaking over the horizon as France and Germany, the traditional co-drivers of European policy, are increasingly divided on a host of key issues from energy to industrial policy to arms production.
Supported by the West, Ukraine has managed to resist Russia’s invasion for eight long months.
But the Western coalition risks sliding into crisis as the intra-European divisions coincide with the growing economic costs of supporting Ukraine and uncertain support in the United States from House Republicans, who appear poised to take a majority after next week’s midterm elections.
France and Germany: Why is it so tense?
France is furious that Germany has, without giving its fellow EU members advance notice, unilaterally pursued a €200 billion support package for its own industry, which threatens to destabilize competitiveness in the single market. Berlin has also opted for U.S. and Israeli suppliers for a future missile defense shield over Eastern Europe rather than a European developed and produced alternative that would include the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system. There is also tension over Germany’s decision to continue to phase out nuclear power rather than turning to France for new next-generation reactors.
Plenty of smiles for the cameras, but no substantive breakthrough.
For its part, Germany, which built its economy on cheap Russian gas fueling an industry whose major export destination was China, sees an economic model collapsing on both ends in a newly divided world—and which it cannot reconfigure at the snap of its fingers. In this context, Berlin is particularly frustrated with France’s refusal allow the construction of a new natural gas pipeline that would connect Germany to Spain, which hosts the majority of Europe’s Liquified Natural Gas import terminals; France is also accused of promoting “European defense” initiatives that in reality favor its own industry.
Europe is more divided than ever
A lunch Wednesday between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz featured plenty of smiles for the cameras, but no substantive breakthrough on any of these points of contention.
“These arguments could seem fair game in times of peace,” writes Robequain. “But in the face of the conflict we’re up against with Russia, we shouldn’t pick the wrong enemy.”
Adding to the potential rifts is uncertainty in Italy, where former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi boasted to his party colleagues that he had exchanged gifts with Putin and suggested that Ukraine was to blame for the invasion. The revelations forced new Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose party relies on Berlusconi’s for its parliamentary majority, to run damage control. Still, it was another recent high-profile crack in what has been a remarkably united front in support of Kyiv.
All smiles?
Thursday's edition of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Potential for a change in the U.S. policy
Meanwhile, the sniping among allies is also happening on the transatlantic front: from the US, over European defense spending and levels of financial assistance to Ukraine; from Europe, over lack of U.S. consideration for the enormous economic hit to Continental economies due to energy costs—including imports of Liquified Natural Gas from the U.S., whose prices spiked wildly during the summer and early fall.
In the face of sometimes divergent interests within the West, the Biden Administration’s willingness to step in as funder and supplier of Ukrainian needs has been key to maintaining unity.
If the U.S. pulled back, would France, Germany, and the EU as a whole step up to fill the gap?
The U.S. support to Ukraine is getting less certain
Yet the iron-clad support from the U.S. is now suddenly very much uncertain. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has threatened future financial assistance to Ukraine, warning that House Republicans would not write “a blank check” if they take control of Congress
Such a shift in Washington’s willingness to support Ukraine could risk throwing papered-over divisions into a full blown crisis in the Western coalition. If the U.S. pulled back, would France, Germany, and the EU as a whole step up to fill the gap? Or would it give cover to skeptics in those nations to press for a pull back themselves? You can be sure Putin will be watching, and dreaming.
Russia may allow over-40s to enlist in military as resources are needed to step up the assault in eastern Ukraine.
Signs are pointing to Russian combat operations accelerating in the southeastern Donbas region, as the invasion in Ukraine nears the three-month mark. The British Ministry of Defence said Friday that more Russian troops are likely to be deployed to Donbas to reinforce operations there once they finish securing the strategic port city of Mariupol, where a growing numbers of Ukrainian soldiers has surrendered this week.
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Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainian students during a virtual address on Thursday that the war is not over yet, and is entering “the final stage (which) is the most difficult, the bloodiest.” He added that it is not time yet for him to tell Ukrainians abroad to return home.
In a later speech, Zelensky said that Russian forces have “completely destroyed” the southeastern region of Donbas. "It is hell there — and that is not an exaggeration," he said in a late night video address.
Short On Troops, Russia May Allow Over-40s To Enlist
The Russian parliament announced on Friday that, facing an urgent need to boost its war efforts in Ukraine, it would consider a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to enlist in the military.
"Clearly, the Russians are in trouble. This is the latest attempt to address manpower shortages without alarming their own population,” said retired U.S. General Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe.
Russia’s State Duma, parliament's lower house, said the move would allow the military to use the skills of older professionals. For the time being, only Russians aged between 18 and 40 can enter the military.
Air strikes on the port city of Odessa have become more frequent over the past three weeks, with fears rising that it could follow Mariupol as Vladimir Putin’s next principal target.
Ukrainian forces resisting in and around the city of Mykolaiv, 80 miles up the coast, have prevented Odessa from being encircled by Russian forces. But Anna Akage writes that Russia has multiple motivations, both symbolic and strategic, for focusing attacks on the southern city. Chief among these reasons is that Moscow wants to intimidate Moldova, whose border lies only 35 miles away, with its own internal battle with pro-Russian separatists in the breakaway republic of Transnistria. Read more here
China is purchasing record amounts of cheap coal from Russia while Western nations continue to apply heavy sanctions on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine.
Still, says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based think tank,China is being careful that even while acting in its own economic interests and maintaining relations with Russia, it doesn’t go to far in antagonizing the West.
"So far,” Myllyvirta said, “the government seems to be walking a line of maintaining friendly relationships with Russia without encouraging or directing Chinese firms to increase business with the country, and discouraging anything that might run afoul of the sanctions imposed on China."
NY Times Finds New Evidence Of War Crimes In Bucha
Footage from @nytimes shows Russian soldiers leading a group of Ukrainian captives to a courtyard where they were executed on March 4 in Ukraine's Bucha. Such an important piece from @malachybrowne & team. Full report: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/world/europe/russia-bucha-ukraine-executions.html\u00a0\u2026pic.twitter.com/GaOq7UljuG
The New York Timesconducted a week-long investigation that pieced together witness testimony, video footage of Russian soldiers leading a group of Ukrainian captives to a courtyard in the city of Bucha to find conclusive evidence of cold-blooded executions of civilians, and possible war crimes. The video was captured by a security camera and a witness in a nearby house.
A drone video also obtained by the Times confirms that they were executed on March 4 in Bucha.
Ex German Chancellor Schroeder Stripped Of State Privileges For Putin Ties
The German parliament has announced that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will lose his taxpayer-funded office and staff for failing to take distance from his Russian business ties and from Vladimir Putin himself, whom Schroeder still considers a personal friend.
Schroeder is to be stripped of his office and staff, which cost €407,000 in taxpayer funds last year, reports Deutsche Welle.
Germany’s conversative opposition also sought in vain to strip the 78-year-old former chancellor of his €100,000 annual pension too. Both the office and pension are among the privileges that chancellors keep when they step down.
But German Chancellor Olaf Scholf rejected the call for sanctions. “I don’t think anything else is necessary at the moment,” Scholz said during a visit to The Netherlands. “It would be best if Gerhard Schroeder resigned from his positions.”
Japan Backs Security Measures For Ukrainian Nuclear Plants
Two cooling towers are pictured on the premises of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine
Having been victim of both nuclear attacks and nuclear accidents, Japan has pledged $2.1 million euros to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for its efforts to ensure the security of Ukrainian nuclear facilities attacked by Russia.
Japan Today reports that Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi made the promise after a meeting with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, who arrived in Japan at the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant. He noted that Japan will finance the sending of IAEA experts to Ukraine and the provision of the necessary equipment for Ukrainian nuclear facilities.
The Economist Front Page
UK-based weekly The Economist has a vivid cover image of what many are warning is a looming hunger crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine. Here is a piece from Carlo Petrini, the Italian founder of Slow Food, urging action on both short and long-term risks around food supply.
Arrest Warrant For Pro-Russia Former Ukrainian President
A Kyiv court has granted permission for the arrest of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. The former president is accused of smuggling 20 people into Russia from Donetsk Oblast in 2014 with the assistance of three helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine’s prosecutor general’s office said in a statement published to its website. Yanukovych was convicted in absentia for treason in 2019 and sentenced to 13 years in prison. He is believed to live in exile in Russia.
Biden In Asia Set To Sign $40 Billion Aid Package To Ukraine
After the Senate voted on Thursday to pass the $40 billion aid package to Ukraine, the bill itself is being flown to South Korea for the signature of President Joe Biden, who is currently on a trip to Asia.
"I applaud the Congress for sending a clear bipartisan message to the world that the people of the United States stand together with the brave people of Ukraine as they defend their democracy and freedom," Biden said in a statement.
Russian Director Calls For End Of Russian Culture Boycott During Cannes Festival
Speaking at the Cannes Film Festival, Russian director Kirill Serebrennikov made a plea to end the boycott on Russian cultural works and artists: “Boycotting Russian culture strikes me as unbearable,” he said during a press conference promoting his most movie, Tchaikovsky’s Wife. “Russian culture has always promoted human values, the fragility of man, the compassion one can have.”
Allowing Serebrennikov’s film in the competition has sparked criticism that is defies a European ban on culture works that may benefit Russian oligarchs.British Film Magazine, Screen Daily, also reported that Serebrennikov has called to end the sanctions imposed on Russian oligarch, Roman Abramovich by the United Kingdom and European Union. Abramovich has long been a major patron of the arts, though he also has had close ties in the past to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia says it has conquered new territory in Donbas, while Ukraine says it has retaken parts of the city of Kharkiv. The competing claims come as Vladimir Putin appears to be bracing for a long "protracted" conflict.
Some press reports come from the battlefield, some come from headquarters.
The latter was the source for the lead story in today’s The New York Times that declared “Ukraine War’s Geographic Reality: Russia Has Seized Much of the East,” based on an assertion of the Russian Defense Ministry that “its forces in eastern Ukraine had advanced to the border between Donetsk and Luhansk,” the two provinces of Donbas.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
The article continues with an important caveat: “If confirmed,” the report signals that Russia could soon gain control over the entire Donbas region, which could put Moscow in position to force Kyiv to agree to its terms at the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, other Western media on the same day chose this news as their main headline: “Zelensky says Ukraine forces pushing back Russia troops in Kharkiv.” Yes, control of the nation’s second-largest city is no doubt a crucial barometer for how the war is advancing.
Other outlets and analysts try to keep up: Ukrainian news website Livy Bereg lists out, each day, the Ukrainian government’s reports of battle spots, missile counts and casualties. French daily Le Figaro regularly updates a series of maps to show — based on the best information they can access — who controls what territory: “As of today, in Donbas, the [Russian] separatists control more than 50% of Donetsk and around 90% of Luhansk.
Yet, another headline comes from Washington, where a top U.S. intelligence official warns that the Russian President is preparing for "prolonged conflict." That may be an assessment all sides can agree on.
Five Russian Governors Resign, As Putin Consolidates Power
Kommersant front page
Five Russian governors have announced en masse their intention to resign ahead of schedule. Each said they’d made the decision autonomously to step down before the end of their term, acting on their own free will. President Vladimir Putin immediately appointed interim governors, who will have to confirm their powers in September elections.
Russian daily Kommersantreports that the dismissal of these politicians had long been predicted by the media and experts: the reasons cited included "fatigue" of the population, high levels of opposition sentiment in the regions, and poor results for the United Russia party in the Duma elections.
The central government in Moscow is clearly looking for ways to consolidate power on the home front against the backdrop of the war with Ukraine.
Bans And Blocks For Oil And Gas, And Special Treatment For Hungary
Ukraine says it has suspended some of the Russian natural gas it delivers to Europe, blaming Moscow for the interruption of energy supplies that are vital to such countries as Germany and Hungary.
The European Union, meanwhile, continues to negotiate internally its own plans to phase out Russian gas and oil. EU officials are considering offering financial compensation to Hungary, which is particularly reliant on Russian oil, to sign on to the bloc-wide deal that could be a major hit for Moscow.
Crimea’s Deputy Prime Minister: Southern Ukraine Should Become Part Of Russia
Deputy Prime Minister of Crimea Georgy Muradov believes that the southern territories of Ukraine, occupied by the Russian military, are destined to become part of Russia.
Muradov says his claim is based on public sentiment and that the southeastern territories have “always been Russian,” reports RIA Novosti. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and Moscow’s current invasion is now mostly focused on the southern and eastern region of Donbas.
Muradov said that civil-military administrations are already being formed in the southern territories of Ukraine, Russian TV channels are being broadcast, Russian textbooks have appeared in schools, and the Russian ruble has entered circulation.
The statement follows a similar declaration by Kirill Stremousov, deputy chairman of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region of Ukraine, who announced the desire of the region to become part of Russia. He also promised to return the coat of arms of the times of the Russian Empire to the region. In addition, the head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, reported that the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine would be able to receive gas and electricity through Crimea.
Belarus Deploys Troops To Ukrainian Border
Alexander Lukashenko during meeting with Vladimir Putin
Belarusis deploying troops near its southern border with Ukraine. The country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Russia, said it’s defending Belarus from a buildup of NATO troops near its border and discussed the use of Russian made missiles in boosting the country’s defenses.
A member of the punk band Pussy Riot, Maria Alyokhina, has fled Russia, using a Delivery Club courier suit and leaving her phone at home to help evade authorities. After that, she was taken to Belarus, to the Lithuanian border, the anti-government activist and musician recounted her odyssey and the continued opposition of Pussy Riot to Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.
The Russian feminist punk rock band has long performed anti-regime and anti-conformist lyrics in unauthorized concerts in public places. In 2012, Alyokhina was arrested on charges of hooliganism in connection with the protest action in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, Moscow, and has been arrested multiple times since then for her opposition to the Kremlin’s policies.
Boris Johnson Visits Sweden And Finland To Discuss NATO Membership
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has landed in Sweden ahead of a similar visit to Finland to discuss possible NATO membership of the two Nordic countries as a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Johnson signed an agreement with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, pledging that the countries would come to the other's aid if attacked.
Zelensky Reacts To Death Of Ukraine’s First President Leonid Kravchuk
The first leader of the post-Soviet independent Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, has died at the age of 88. With his place in modern Ukraine history, his death in the midst of Russia’s invasion has stirred reaction around the country.
President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted to the news: "Today the first President of Ukraine Leonid Makarovych Kravchuk died. He was not just a politician or even just a historical figure. He was a man who knew how to find wise words and say them so that all Ukrainians heard. This is especially important in difficult, moments of crisis, when the future of the whole country may depend on the wisdom of one person.”
Front Page: A Reconciliation Between Kyiv And Berlin
German front pages covered the visit Tuesday of Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock to Kyiv. She is the highest-ranking German official to visit the Ukrainian capital since the war began, amid tensions over past ties to Russia of several senior officials.
A Majority Of Bulgarians Fear A Russian Attack
Bulgarian Flag | The Bulgarian Flag on the top of the Largo … | Flickrwww.flickr.com
A new poll found that two out of three Bulgarians fear Russia will use missile and bomb strikes on sites in Bulgaria, and more than half fear Russia could occupy it.
Ukraine Qualifies For Finals In Eurovision
Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra have qualified for the Eurovision Song Contest finals Saturday, which will be decided partially by a public vote. Support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion is expected to help the band’s chances of victory.
Band member Oleh Psiuk said that a win would send a message: “So if we win, it will be another opportunity to show Ukraine to the world, to remind people about Ukraine, and to increase morale in the whole country."
What exactly are French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s past and present positions on Putin and Russia?
French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has spent five years preparing for a possible rematch against Emmanuel Macron. Her dream, after losing to Macron in a 2017 runoff, was no doubt to hammer away on domestic issues like immigration and economic opportunity against a sitting president criticized for being out of touch with voters.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
Le Pen, who is in striking distance from Macron ahead of Sunday’s election, has been forced to answer questions about her pro-Russia stance that dates back at least a decade.
The leader of the Rassemblement National party insists her views are being mischaracterized by Macron and other critics. But Le Pen also appears to be doubling down on her sympathetic views towards Russia and Vladimir Putin in a country that has largely rallied around the Ukrainian cause and a united Western front against Moscow.
While she proposed an "equidistant" relationship between Moscow and Washington, Le Pen insisted that she has "always defended the interest of France and exclusively the interest of France.”
Still, with Moscow's invasion having global consequences, it's worth asking what exactly are Le Pen’s past and present positions on Putin and Russia?
Her own view on Putin
Le Pen has repeatedly expressed warm support for Russian President Putin in the past. Her party — founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, known for his fascist past — had maintained close relations with Russia for more than a decade, including Le Pen father's multiple visits to Moscow to meet government officials.
Back in 2011, Marine Le Pen expressed her admiration for Putin in Russian daily Kommersant, praising “his vision of the world.” She officially met him for the first time on April 24, 2017, where they were photographed shaking hands and smiling, just ahead of the French presidential elections.
Just like Putin, Le Pen is suspicious of globalization.
Their meeting raised suspicions about Russian support for European and U.S. far-right parties, despite Putin’s insistence he did not interfere with foreign elections.
Le Pen appears to admire Putin's authoritarian views, especially on sovereignty and national identity. Just like Putin, Le Pen is suspicious of globalization, which she considers an enemy in terms of security, economy and independence.
Their common hardline nationalistic and anti-immigration policies echo the populist approach of former U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
For her 2022 presidential campaign, Le Pen ordered 1.2 million election leaflets featuring one of the 2017 photos with Putin — then requested their destruction following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, French daily Libération reports.
Le Pen featured her meeting with Putin in this campaign leaflet
Suspicious loans
In 2014, as the Front National (the former name of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party) needed funds to finance her presidential campaign, it secured a loan worth $9 million from the First Czech-Russian Bank (FCBR), a bank linked to the Kremlin. The intermediary to negotiate the terms between the bank and the party was Putin’s adviser, businessman Alexander Babakov.
At the time, Le Pen defended the loan, saying that French banks had refused to lend money to her party because of its fascist past.
When the First Czech-Russian Bank shut down in 2016 and was repurchased by the Aviazapchast company, Le Pen was asked to pay back the loan plus interest. The party’s debts were huge at the time and they didn’t have the financial means for these payments. Today, the party has stabilized its debts but is still repaying this loan in installments — until 2028.
The war in Ukraine
At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Le Pen was forced to answer questions about her past support of Putin. She quickly condemned the invasion, saying “Vladimir Putin was wrong, he crossed the line.”
She tried to distance herself from her past ties with the Russian president, claiming he “has changed,” though she “does not regret” her previous positions.
Le Pen says she does not particularly admire Zelensky.
Last week, a woman bearing a heart-shaped sign featuring Putin and Le Pen staged a protest at a Le Pen event, and was quickly tackled and dragged away.
Le Pen did make a point last month of saying she does not particularly admire Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “I believe that he behaves just like a head of state and that should not arouse admiration,” she explained on LCI French TV channel. She sparked controversy by vowing not to attend Zelensky's live-streamed speech to the French parliament, but finally was present after being widely criticized.
Le Pen also believes sanctions over Russian gas and oil should be lifted, and has been hesitant to support French arms shipments to Ukraine.
NATO and U.S. relations
Le Pen's foreign policy fundamentally differs from Macron's. The latter advocates strengthening Europe and expanding globalization, while Le Pen said last week that she favors a rapprochement between NATO and Moscow once Russia and Ukraine reach a peace treaty. Her main rationale for moving closer to Moscow is that a post-war alliance would be a strategic way to limit a Russia-China partnership.
She also reaffirmed her desire to pull France out of the Integrated Command of NATO (France already left NATO once in 1966, then rejoined in 2009) and considers U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration “too aggressive” on China.
America “needs enemies in order to unite its allies under its domination” she stated in a press conference. In Le Pen’s eyes, France should be “equidistant” between Russia and the United States.
Still, as strongly as she sticks to her guns on her unconventional foreign policy, Le Pen would prefer that Sunday’s elections be decided on domestic policy. Even as she wins few friends among Ukrainians, Le Pen is betting that she's more popular than Macron with the French.
With Russian troops now deployed through Belarus, the risk is growing of an invasion through Ukraine’s northern border. Vladimir Putin’s regional strategy and Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorial demands are not always what they seem.
-Analysis-
Ukrainians have a joke that started in the 1990s: Russia will never feel ashamed as long as there is Ukraine, and Ukraine will never feel ashamed as long as there is Belarus.
This bit of dark humor used to reflect the economic situation in the former Soviet republics. But somewhere in the interval, after the two democratic revolutions in Ukraine, in 2004 and 2014, we acquired a different vision of things, a sense of direction and demand from society. It was as if we broke away and swam in the opposite direction, away from where Russia was heading … leading Belarus by the hook.
People of my generation in Kyiv have always felt sorry for the Belarusians. Their situation aroused sympathy precisely because they were forced to follow Russia like a dog, without the right to make their own choice, to stand upright, to finally demonstrate to themselves and others that they were an independent state.
Putin and Lukashenko, it's complicated
Vladimir Putin, the region’s puppet master, needs Lukashenko. This past autumn, amid the migrant crisis and standoff with the European Union, the Belarus strongman threatened to shut down the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline in response to the possible complete closure of Polish borders.
Yes, that’s right, Russian gas also goes to Europe via Belarus. It is not Belarusian gas or Belarusian pipes, it's a company whose controlling stake is owned by the Russian government. That is, Lukashenko threatens Europe with Russian gas.
Ukraine has a very warm attitude toward the Belarusian people
Do you know how he was punished for threatening to block Russian property? He wasn't. In a subsequent interview with a Russian TV channel, Putin actually apologizes for the situation: frankly, this is the first time I've heard something like this from the Russian leader.
And now, war games. While Ukraine has tried to shore up its border with Russia, after the Kremlin deployed troops for what looks like a possible invasion, Russia has turned to Belarus.
Russian troops in Belarus for a joint response force exercise in January 2022
Moscow has spent recent days deploying a massive arsenal and thousands of soldiers across Belarus, while Lukashenko has publicly warned of his readiness to go to war if Russia is attacked. And Kyiv is ever more encircled on all sides. Indeed, its northern border is much closer to the capital than its eastern border where Ukraine has been battling with pro-Russian forces for years.
“As a result of Russia taking control over Belarus, 1,070 kilometers (665 miles) of our border with Belarus became a threat,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “This is not a threat from Belarus — Ukraine has a very warm attitude toward the Belarusian people — but a threat from Russia moving through Belarus.”
Yet Russian troops deployed throughout Belarus is not necessarily a Putin imposition on Lukashenko. The Belarus strongman has repeatedly demonstrated his independence vis a vis Putin, having previously made statements to make the Russian leader look weak, while mocking his speeches in Parliament and in the Belarusian media.
Not long ago, a journalist from a Belarusian TV channel went so far as insulting Putin on air, calling him a wimp and accusing him of using Botox, unlike the brave president of Belarus, whose aging face supposedly shows the sacrifices he’s made for his country.
But Lukashenko gets away even with it because Putin knows he is responsible for those he’s tamed. By dreaming about the reunification of the USSR, the Russian president help create and sustain a mad autocrat who is now too expensive not only for Belarusians living in a cage but also for Russians who will pay taxes for the sanctions imposed on Russian companies working with Belarus.
His own man
Hiding behind big Russia and its eccentric leader, the ambitions and cockroaches in the head of the Belarusian president have grown larger than expected. It is one thing to have a well-controlled puppet at the helm of a well-controlled country. It's quite another when this plaything starts to feel impunity for any action. Then the master starts to pay for his mistakes.
nothing is at it seems, and old jokes don’t seem so funny anymore
And this is how they have been living for more than 20 years: Putin creates the illusion of being in control of the situation, while Lukashenko always seems to be utterly dependent, and therefore utterly controllable. He survives only on Russian financial, political, and military support. However, for all that, it is now clear that Putin is not always the leader in this strange relationship at all.
The stakes today are multiplying with each passing day — the geometry more triangular than ever. From the outside, Belarus seems to be following Russia’s orders while Ukraine is busy preparing to defend itself from invasion. But nothing is at it seems, and old jokes don’t seem so funny anymore.
Will the Great Resignation of the past year lead to a Great Reskilling the next...?
Like the year before, 2021 was filled with Zoom meetings, travel bans, shaky economics and supply chain disruptions. At the same time, it was a singular year, defined by strikes, international labor shortages and vaccine mandates in many workplaces. As Q4 comes to an end, things are ramping up, and the work challenges of 2022 are becoming very clear.
All over the world, unemployment is high — and so is the lack of available labor. What will see a bigger increase, inflation or salary bumps? Will the Great Resignation lead to a Great Reskilling? What we do know is that white-collar workers are shifting from overtime to flexible schedules, from cogs in the wheel to drivers in the front seat, from struggling independent contractors to employees with full benefits.
This edition of Work → In Progress dives into mutating office etiquette, who’s getting hired and the crystallizing trends that will define our near future.
TIME LIMIT
Portugal made international waves as they passed a groundbreaking law that imposes fines on companies if they contact their employees outside of office hours. According to Portuguese news channel TVI, unless the situation is a force majeure, contacting an employee when they’re off duty or discriminating against workers who protect their time off is a punishable offense. Additionally, companies also have to provide training for any equipment or software used for telework.
TEEN SPIRIT
The current labor shortage could spur companies to improve pay and working conditions for menial jobs. Or they could hire teenagers. The U.S. Bureau of Statistics says that 16-19 year olds are seeing their highest employment rate in decades, while the state of Ohio is trying to pass legislation that would extend the working hours of 14 and 15 year olds. And since President Biden signed the new infrastructure bill, the trucking industry, a sector that is particularly suffering from shortages, is now allowed to hire drivers as young as 18 years old. Is the trend helping the economy or hindering the health and education of American adolescents?
STAT DU JOUR
BEYOND PAYCHECKS
The pandemic shifted everyone's priorities so much that companies are re-thinking how they remunerate their workers. Chilean-based daily América Economía reports that money is no longer the biggest motivator for many Latin Americans, who now value having more personal time and other non-salary benefits. Some companies offered to help pay for their workers’ internet, others financed their employees’ home offices, and a few made sure to provide psychological support.
Businesses need to make sure they’re attractive in the current labor shortage, and their shift in tactics is benefiting everyone: a survey of 90 Chilean companies found employees are more productive when they work flexibly and can spend more time with family.
HOLD THAT SNEEZE
Afraid of catching COVID? That’s no excuse to stay home, said a court in Madrid this past June. According to Spanish newspaper La Razòn, the city’s Superior Court of Justice felt that because the employee in question wasn’t particularly vulnerable, and because the company had put adequate measures in place, her absence was unjustified.
Now, Spanish paper El País reports that a recent holiday work party for hospital staff at the Regional University Hospital of Málaga — where negative antigen test results were obligatory to join the fun — resulted in 80 new cases and an urgent need for extra hospital staff. No matter what precautions workplaces take, It seems the best rule of thumb is still “better safe than sorry.”
“Work from home” was so 2020 — now it’s all about working from the garden. According to the New York Times, many telecommuters who have tried kitchen tables, living room floors and walk-in closets are finding that garden sheds make great home offices. It creates distance from distractions in the house while still remaining close enough to attend to family duties and provides a greener backdrop.
Shoffice, a British company specializing in shed-offices, has seen a 70% increase in sales, and many similar countries from France to Japan, are reporting similar spikes in interest.
URBAN CUBICLE
What about workers with no backyards? For city-dwellers with hectic agendas, rentable “pop-up office pods” might be the answer to answering emails or attending online meetings in between rendez-vous. The London-based company Make.Work.Space is in the process of designing and deploying these mini workspaces, which would function similarly to bikeshare programs. The pods could be booked via an app — which also controls the lighting, temperature and WiFi login. In a city once famous for its telephone booths, could these office pods become a new urban icon?
As we learn yet another Greek letter through the new COVID-19 Omicron variant, around the world the new wave is starting to sound very familiar.
It’s been another 72-hour global moment.
It came in the days after the news first broke last Friday that B.1.1.529, named Omicron, had been identified by scientists in South Africa and assessed by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a “variant of concern.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has supplied a series of these collective worldwide “moments:” from the first wave of lockdowns to the discovery that the vaccines were effective to the Delta variant’s new wave of infections.
Early evidence suggested the variant was spreading fast and scientists warned Omicron was the most heavily mutated version of the virus they had seen yet, raising questions about the efficacy of vaccines against it. But little is known so far and it will take weeks before we can be certain of the variant’s contagiousness and the actual danger it poses.
Omicron repeating history
Still, the discovery has nonetheless prompted a number of countries to quickly enforce bans on travelers from several southern African countries. Since then, several cases of the virus strain have been detected around the world, which is likely to prompt even more countries to implement restrictions as the heated debates over vaccines (both anti-vaxxers and access in the developing worlds) get even hotter.
Yes, it all starts to sound familiar. Just like when the Delta variant was discovered and with each new wave, history seems to repeat itself.
New cases and deaths, overwhelmed hospitals, restrictions, closed borders, the vaccine conundrum and the debate over mandatory vs incentive approach, protests ... which is likely to evolve to the point of declining case numbers, reopenings, discovery of a new variant and repeat all over again.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said the variant “should be a wake-up call to the world that vaccine inequality cannot be allowed to continue” and called countries that had banned travel to African nations to reverse their decisions and instead support access and manufacture of vaccine doses for developing economies.
“We are living through a cycle of panic and neglect,” said WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a special three-day meeting of the organisation to discuss the handling of the new virus strain. But how do we break the cycle?
The news of the variant has once again highlighted inequalities in access to vaccines. While Western countries, already largely vaccinated, are debating plans about mandatory vaccination and speeding up booster shots, a large portion of the African population remain unprotected, giving time to the virus to spread and mutate.
There is still no global plan for getting out of it.
China’s daily The Global Times has pointed fingers at Western countries’ selfishness and mismanagement, saying that while they control most of the resources needed to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, “they have failed to curb the spread of the virus and have exposed more and more developing countries to the virus.” The Beijing newspaper touted China’s zero-COVID strategy as the “best line of defense” as Xi Jinping pledged to provide 1 billion doses to Africa.
For some, these inequalities and the reactions to the Omicron discovery have proved that despite being nearly two years into the pandemic, “there is still no global plan for getting out of it,” writes Jason Horowitz in The New York Times.
Colombian daily El Espectador calling for “caution” on its Dec. 1 front page.
The WHO is now calling for a “coherent global approach” and the creation of a treaty to ensure sharing of data and technology, and equitable access to vaccines. For French daily Le Monde, “the fight against COVID-19 and its avatars cannot be conducted against the sole national framework. This global threat requires a response that is equally so, to avoid planetary uncertainty, disorganization and anxiety.”
In the meantime we need to “keep calm,” says Pia Heinemann in German daily Die Welt, as Omicron is “the new player in the pandemic” and there are still uncertainties about its dangerousness. Colombian daily El Espectador calls for “caution” on its Dec. 1 front page, reminding readers that the pandemic has also caused millions of cases of depression around the world.
Whatever the solution to his new challenge, one thing is certain for journalist Mathieu Bock-Côté writing in Canada’s Journal de Québec: “COVID must no longer be granted the right to serve as the main backstory of our collective life.”
Bulgarian Flag | The Bulgarian Flag on the top of the Largo … | Flickr
