Economy

Technology Killing Jobs, A Brief History

Why this time it's different — and maybe much worse.

Armed for the future
Armed for the future
Jean-Marc Vittori

-Analysis-


PARIS â€" Imagine it's the early 1900s, the dawn of the 20th century, with all its promise and hope. Scientists and engineers are looking to the future and imagining a world in which machines handle more and more of the work previously done by people, including that most primary and vital of activities: agriculture.

At this point, agriculture still employs half the world's workforce. But a century from now, these experts predict, only a few hundred thousand people will be enough to keep the agriculture going in a country like France. There will be machines to plow, to milk the cows, to harvest the grapes. Even more incredible: one single man, with one single machine, will be able in one single day to harvest almost 1 million kilograms of wheat â€" a feat accomplished with a New Holland combine harvester on Aug. 15, 2014, with 798 tons harvested in eight hours.


What a nightmare! What will become of those millions of farmers who don’t know any other job? How will society cope?


Fast forward to 1930. In the factories, assembly lines are demonstrating their formidable efficiency. The first best-selling economist, John Maynard Keynes, writes one of his best essays, Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren. He announces the emergence of "technological unemployment" due to the "discovery of means of economizing the use of labor outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour."


The year is now 1961. Computers are starting to move from laboratories to companies. Time magazine, in a comprehensive investigative piece called "The Automation Jobless," suggests that the number of jobs lost to more efficient machines is only part of the problem. "What worries many job experts more is that automation may prevent the economy from creating enough new jobs," the article reads.


More than a half-century later, thousands of experts â€" whose jobs, it's worth pointing out, didn't exist in 1961 â€" are still grappling with questions about the future of work. They see promise, but also serious cause for concern.

Two years ago, a pair of Oxford economists, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, published a sensational article in which they estimated that 47% of jobs in the United States were threatened by automation. Their method, applied to France, puts that figure at 42%. For Britain it's 38%. In its World Development Report 2016, the World Bank extends the assessment to other countries: 63% of jobs are endangered in Croatia, 65% in Argentina, 69% in India, 72% in Thailand, 77% in China and a mind-blowing 85% in Ethiopia!

The only way to cope, it seems, will be to create hundreds of millions of new jobs â€" if that's even possible. Either that or face massive unemployment. Hence the global fear regarding the future of work.

Real-life human *computers, circa 1949 â€" Photo: NASA

Worst-case scenarios are mushrooming. In its report, the World Bank quotes science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov, who in 1964 described his vision of the world in 2014. "The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine," Asimov wrote.

The mini-series Trepalium paints a similar picture. It describes the dire prospect of a world in which only 20% of the active population has a job. To keep the hordes of poverty-stricken people at bay, they live behind high walls. Winter is definitely coming.

We've heard these warnings before. And in the past, the economy found a way to create new jobs. And yet some experts worry that things are different this time around â€" for three reasons, according to a recent report published by the U.S. bank Citi and Oxford University.

First off, the change is taking place faster. It took 75 years for the telephone, launched in 1878, to reach 100 million users. It only took seven years for the Internet and two years for Instagram to achieve the same result. Another sign is that robotization is gaining pace, with sales of industrial robots growing 17% per year since 2010, compared to 3% before the 2008 financial crisis. What’s more, information technology is shaking up the economy as a whole, not just a few industrial sectors. Finally, and contrary to what happened in the past, only the few are reaping the fruits of technological change, not the many.


This issue of distribution and sharing is crucial. It's striking to see Citi's experts bring up the need for tax credit for low-incomes and reducing working hours (something Keynes already advocated, foreseeing a three-hour workday).

Still, with regards to job creation, we might put some faith in what French economist Frédéric Bastiat wrote in his 1850 essay That Which Is Seen, And That Which Is Not Seen. What is seen are the jobs that are disappearing. What is not seen are the jobs that will emerge. Because we don’t know about them yet. Because they will appear in shapes and sizes that aren't familiar to us, that don't resemble 20th-century work. Because the ways money circulates will also change, as will money itself.


Rather than fear the worst, let's keep our eyes wide open. Let's try and turn the tide. And let’s preserve flexibility in the system, so the future truly can arrive, in whatever form or shape it will take.

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Green

In Argentina, A Visit To World's Highest Solar Energy Park

With loans and solar panels from China, the massive solar park has been opened a year and is already powering the surrounding areas. Now the Chinese supplier is pushing for an expansion.

960,000 solar panels have been installed at the Cauchari park

Silvia Naishtat

CAUCHARI — Driving across the border with Chile into the northwest Argentine department of Susques, you may spot what looks like a black mass in the distance. Arriving at a 4,000-meter altitude in the municipality of Cauchari, what comes into view instead is an assembly of 960,000 solar panels. It is the world's highest photovoltaic (PV) park, which is also the second biggest solar energy facility in Latin America, after Mexico's Aguascalientes plant.

Spread over 800 hectares in an arid landscape, the Cauchari park has been operating for a year, and has so far turned sunshine into 315 megawatts of electricity, enough to power the local provincial capital of Jujuy through the national grid.


It has also generated some $50 million for the province, which Governor Gerardo Morales has allocated to building 239 schools.

Abundant sunshine, low temperatures

The physicist Martín Albornoz says Cauchari, which means "link to the sun," is exposed to the best solar radiation anywhere. The area has 260 days of sunshine, with no smog and relatively low temperatures, which helps keep the panels in optimal conditions.

Its construction began with a loan of more than $331 million from China's Eximbank, which allowed the purchase of panels made in Shanghai. They arrived in Buenos Aires in 2,500 containers and were later trucked a considerable distance to the site in Cauchari . This was a titanic project that required 1,200 builders and 10-ton cranes, but will save some 780,000 tons of CO2 emissions a year.

It is now run by 60 technicians. Its panels, with a 25-year guarantee, follow the sun's path and are cleaned twice a year. The plant is expected to have a service life of 40 years. Its choice of location was based on power lines traced in the 1990s to export power to Chile, now fed by the park.

Chinese engineers working in an office at the Cauchari park

Xinhua/ZUMA

Chinese want to expand

The plant belongs to the public-sector firm Jemse (Jujuy Energía y Minería), created in 2011 by the province's then governor Eduardo Fellner. Jemse's president, Felipe Albornoz, says that once Chinese credits are repaid in 20 years, Cauchari will earn the province $600 million.

The Argentine Energy ministry must now decide on the park's proposed expansion. The Chinese would pay in $200 million, which will help install 400,000 additional panels and generate enough power for the entire province of Jujuy.

The park's CEO, Guillermo Hoerth, observes that state policies are key to turning Jujuy into a green province. "We must change the production model. The world is rapidly cutting fossil fuel emissions. This is a great opportunity," Hoerth says.

The province's energy chief, Mario Pizarro, says in turn that Susques and three other provincial districts are already self-sufficient with clean energy, and three other districts would soon follow.

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