Geopolitics

NGOs May Be Endangering The Very Migrants They Seek To Rescue

Refugees arriving in Naples in October 2016
Refugees arriving in Naples in October 2016
Isabelle Ory

-Analysis-

More than 4,500 people lost their lives off the Libyan coast last year. And yet, there have never been so many vessels carrying out rescue missions in the area — from Italian coast guard ships and European operation Eunavfor vessels to those from the border control agency Frontex and others chartered by NGOs.

This paradox is a source of concern for European authorities, so much so that some people are pointing fingers at certain NGOs for jeopardizing the rescue of migrants.

The humanitarian response coincided with a geographic relocation of rescue operations, which now take place far from the Italian coast, often fewer than 20 nautical miles off Libya. "One direct consequence of this has been a change in the business model of smugglers," the European Commission wrote in a recent report.

On board, there's no drinking water, and often no life jackets

There is evidence that smugglers increasingly use completely unseaworthy inflatable dinghies that have no prospect of ever reaching the Italian shores, assuming they will be picked up near or within Libyan territorial waters, the Commission found.

Even though the journey between the coasts only takes a few hours, fragile dinghies that are sometimes stuffed with as many as 140 migrants can sink easily. On board, there's no drinking water, and often no life jackets, for the desperate migrants.

There's another assessment of what's taking place. Earlier, a call to the Rome Maritime Rescue Coordination Center would trigger an operation coordinated by the Italian coast guard. Ships that were deployed would be called upon to act. But Frontex, in a confidential note, observes that these calls now only lead to 10% of all rescue operations. Meanwhile, the number of rescue operations carried out directly by humanitarian organizations has skyrocketed, accounting for one-third of such missions.

Frontex has different theories about why this happens: Either the NGOs use radars or smugglers inform migrants where NGOs are waiting, the agency suggests. Libyan coast guards note that some boats don't hesitate to aim powerful searchlights at the coast so they can easily be seen at night.

No officials agreed to talk about these issues on the record. One European diplomat, maintaining anonymity, offered this assessment: "Some NGOs go as far as entering Libyan territorial waters and others even communicate with the smugglers to guide them. It is a reality, even though it has limited scope for the time being."

Another person familiar with the issue described the current situation this way: "There are NGOs and NGOs," said the source. "Doctors Without Borders or the Red Cross help us fight against smugglers. But there are new organizations, less known and created rather recently, which intervene with little conscience and can raise suspicions."

Even if the rescue operations stopped, it wouldn't change the minds of migrants

Frontex says that some vessels may be turning off their transponder devices so as not to get caught. Rescue procedures carried out by civilian ships aren't necessarily properly equipped, which can lead to tragedies, the border control agency notes.

What can authorities do when faced with this situation? Apparently, not much. "We're not going to start chasing NGOs," a senior source says. The European Union doesn't want to be accused of hampering the action of groups who are saving lives.

The EU's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini says that even if the rescue operations stopped, it wouldn't change the minds of migrants. "Even if there were no more (rescue) boats, it still wouldn't deter those who want to come."

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Geopolitics

Why This Sudan Coup Is Different

The military has seized control in one of Africa's largest countries, which until recently had made significant progress towards transitioning to democracy after years of strongman rule. But the people, and international community, may not be willing to turn back.

Smoke rises Monday over the Sudanese capital of Khartoum

Xinhua via ZUMA
David E. Kiwuwa

This week the head of Sudan's Sovereign Council, General Abdel Fattah El Burhan, declared the dissolution of the transitional council, which has been in place since the overthrow of former president Omar el-Bashir in 2019. He also disbanded all the structures that had been set up as part of the transitional roadmap, and decreed a state of emergency.

In essence, he staged a palace coup against the transitional authority he chaired.


The general's actions, which included the arrest of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, are a culmination of a long period of tension between the civilian and military wings of the council.

A popular uprising may be inevitable

The tensions were punctuated by an alleged attempted coup only weeks earlier. The days leading to the palace coup were marked by street protests for and against the military. Does this mark the end of the transition as envisaged by the protest movement?

Their ability to confront counter revolutionary forces cannot be underestimated.

The popular uprising against Bashir's government was led by the Sudan Professional Association. It ushered in the political transitional union of civilians and the military establishment. The interim arrangement was to lead to a return to civilian rule.

But this cohabitation was tenuous from the start, given the oversized role of the military in the transition. Moreover, the military appeared to be reluctant to see the civilian leadership as an equal partner in shepherding through the transition.

Nevertheless, until recently there had been progress towards creating the institutional architecture for the transition. Despite the challenges and notable tension between the signatories to the accord, it was never evident that the dysfunction was so great as to herald the collapse of the transitional authority.

For now, the transition might be disrupted and in fact temporarily upended. But the lesson from Sudan is never to count the masses out of the equation. Their ability to mobilize and confront counter revolutionary forces cannot be underestimated.

Power sharing

The transitional pact itself had been anchored by eight arduously negotiated protocols. These included regional autonomy, integration of the national army, revenue sharing and repatriation of internal refugees. There was also an agreement to share out positions in national political institutions, such as the legislative and executive branch.

Progress towards these goals was at different stages of implementation. More substantive progress was expected to follow after the end of the transition. This was due in 2022 when the chair of the sovereignty council handed over to a civilian leader. This military intervention is clearly self-serving and an opportunistic power grab.

A promised to civilian rule in July 2023 through national elections.

In November, the rotational chairmanship of the transitional council was to be passed from the military to the civilian wing of the council. That meant the military would cede strong leverage to the civilians. Instead, with the coup afoot, Burhan has announced both a dissolution of the council as well as the dismissal of provincial governors. He has unilaterally promised return to civilian rule in July 2023 through national elections.

Prior to this, the military had been systematically challenging the pre-eminence of the civilian authority. It undermined them and publicly berated them for governmental failures and weaknesses. For the last few months there has been a deliberate attempt to sharply criticize the civilian council as riddled with divisions, incompetent and undermining state stability.

File photo shows Sudan's Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in August 2020

Mohamed Khidir/Xinhua via ZUMA

Generals in suits

Since the revolution against Bashir's government, the military have fancied themselves as generals in suits. They have continued to wield enough power to almost run a parallel government in tension with the prime minister. This was evident when the military continued to have the say on security and foreign affairs.

For their part, civilian officials concentrated on rejuvenating the economy and mobilizing international support for the transitional council.

This didn't stop the military from accusing the civilian leadership of failing to resuscitate the country's ailing economy. True, the economy has continued to struggle from high inflation, low industrial output and dwindling foreign direct investment. As in all economies, conditions have been exacerbated by the effects of COVID-19.

Sudan's weakened economy is, however, not sufficient reason for the military intervention. Clearly this is merely an excuse.

Demands of the revolution

The success or failure of this coup will rest on a number of factors.

First is the ability of the military to use force. This includes potential violent confrontation with the counter-coup forces. This will dictate the capacity of the military to change the terms of the transition.

Second is whether the military can harness popular public support in the same way that the Guinean or Egyptian militaries did. This appears to be a tall order, given that popular support appears to be far less forthcoming.

The international community's appetite for military coups is wearing thin.

Third, the ability of the Sudanese masses to mobilize against military authorities cannot be overlooked. Massive nationwide street protests and defiance campaigns underpinned by underground organizational capabilities brought down governments in 1964, 1985 and 2019. They could once again present a stern test to the military.

Finally, the international community's appetite for military coups is wearing thin. The ability of the military to overcome pressure from regional and international actors to return to the status quo could be decisive, given the international support needed to prop up the crippled economy.

The Sudanese population may have been growing frustrated with its civilian authority's ability to deliver on the demands of the revolution. But it is also true that another coup to reinstate military rule is not something the protesters believe would address the challenges they were facing.

Sudan has needed and will require compromise and principled political goodwill to realise a difficult transition. This will entail setbacks but undoubtedly military intervention in whatever guise is monumentally counterproductive to the aspirations of the protest movement.

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David E. Kiwuwa is Associate Professor of International Studies at University of Nottingham

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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